Blah Blah Blah

Long and painful and done with

2008-11-28T11:51:00.005-05:00

Wow, that was sure a bad season. Didn't quite it see it coming. Everything individual thing I was concerned about this year ended up being a major weakness. The inexperience and lack of talent on the OL, the lack of a QB suited to run the offense, the horrible play of safeties and LBs in coverage, etc. It all stunk and so did the team.

Kinda glad I was quite busy this fall and didn't have much time to peruse the internet much and certainly no time to do any blogging.

But the year of pain is over with and Michigan heads to the offseason with hope for 2009. Here's a quick preview of the offense for next year.

Quarterbacks

Steven Threet (RS Sophomore) - the 2008 de facto starter who split time with Nick Sheridan. He's long and lanky and has a strong arm. In fact, he's the spitting image of a Lloyd Carr-era Michigan quarterback. Unfortunately, he's got a long release and lacks quickness in the ground game and is woefully inaccurate on timing routes. He made some improvements as the season went along and had glimpses of good play in several games. He just couldn't put it together for long stretches. You have to think that he'll be better next season, but he'll also face a huge increase in competition.

Nick Sheridan (RS Junior) - opening day starter and Ohio State game starter in 2008. Former walkon who gave it his all and actually had a very good game at Minnesota. He just doesn't have the arm strength to threaten a defense vertically and he'll have a hard time seeing the field.

Shavodrick Beaver (Freshman) - He's 6'3" and 180 lbs and a 4 star recruit according to Rivals that Texas wanted as a WR. He is more talented as a runner than a passer and will add a new dimension to the offense. How advanced his passing is and how quickly he picks up the offense will be the primary determinants in how much PT he gets. UPDATE - scratch that idea, he decided to go to Tulsa instead.

Tate Forcier (Freshman) - He's 6'0" and 185 lbs and also a 4 star recruit by Rivals. You might remember one of his older brothers Jason as a former UM QB that transferred to Stanford. In contrast to Beaver, Forcier is more advanced as a passer but has some rushing skills. If he picks up the offense, he is probably the favorite to be the starter next season with his accurate passing.

That's a heck of a lot more talent and depth at QB than Michigan had in 2008. I'd venture a guess that Steven Threet is the opening game starter, but Forcier and Beaver will both get snaps. By the middle of the season I'd imagine Forcier will have picked up enough of the offense to be the starter.

Running Backs

Brandon Minor (Senior) - Finished 2008 as Michigan's leading rusher, which is where many people predicted him to be entering the season. He's big and strong and runs hard. Not the shiftiest back in the world, he is hard to stop at the point of attack. I look for big things from Brandon as a senior and he is definitely a candidate to crack 1000 yards in a much improved offense. He will, however, have to fight off a ton of competition to tote the rock.

Carlos Brown (Senior) - It seems that Carlos is always fighting injuries, but when he's healthy he is a solid back with good speed. I'm not sure if 2009 will be his chance to shine given the level of competition, but he does provide Michigan with another solid option.

Sam McGuffie (Sophomore) - Internet sensation and early season starter, McGuffie got his bell rung a few times and didn't see much action the 2nd half of the season. When healthy, he is an explosive runner in the open field that can make people miss. I imagine he will continue to earn snaps as part of a rotation next year. UPDATE - he decided to transfer for personal/family reasons

Michael Shaw (Sophomore) - A blazer in the open field, Shaw is probably Michigan's fastest player on offense. He still needs to improve his vision, but he's a home run threat every time he touches the ball. It's hard to keep that kind of speed off the field in this offense that generates so many gaps to run through.

Mike Cox (RS Freshman) - more of a big bruiser, he might earn some PT at fullback or short yardage situations next year.

Fitzgerald Touissant (Freshman) - a big play threat from Youngstown, Ohio, he has put up big numbers in HS. As you can see there is a ton of players ahead of him already, but he is definitely a threat to not redshirt.

Teric Jones (Freshman) - pint sized speedster from Cass Tech HS in Detroit, he will be hard pressed to beat out the players ahead of him as a true frosh.

Vincent Smith (Freshman) - pint sized speedster from Florida, who will be sitting alongside Jones working on his redshirt next year.

Quite a deep and talented group. Brandon Minor figures to lead the team in rushes and yards, but he'll be far from a workhorse as Rodriguez figures to rotate in guys like Brown, Shaw, McGuffie, and perhaps Touissant. It'll be a deep group that figures to push each individual to improve as the fight for more carries.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Greg Mathews (Senior) - easily Michigan's best true WR, he'll be their big target on the outside and counted on to provide big plays. Tied for the team lead in TD catches with 2 (!?!?!) last season, a total that will hopefully go up quite a bit with improved play at QB.

Martavious Odoms (Sophomore) - lead Michigan in catches and receiving yards last year as a true freshman, showcasing good hands and great moves in the open field. He's the prototype for what Rich Rodriguez wants in a slot WR and expect to see him have an outstanding career. He just needs to work on handling the cold weather a bit better.

Darryl Stonum (Sophomore) - coming off somewhat of a disappointing season as a highly touted recruit out of Texas. He only had 14 catches on the season and dropped a few easy ones. He's got good size and speed, though, and is dangerous after the catch. Look for big strides as a sophomore and Michigan's biggest deep threat.

Junior Hemingway (Junior) - hurt by injuries this year, he might actually have a shot at a redshirt. Regardless, he'll be in the mix for PT at outside WR in 2009 with his combination of size (6'1" 215 lbs) and speed.

Kevin Koger (Sophomore) - A big target at 6'4" and with good speed for a TE, he can produce some mismatches for the defense. TE isn't a big target in this offense, but he'll be a solid pass catching option.

Terrence Robinson (RS Freshman) - he was supposed to be a nice compliment to Martavious Odoms in the slot as a true frosh, but a knee injury lead to his redshirting. If healthy, look for him to provide another lightning quick smurf in the open field to play the slot opposite Odoms in 2009.

Roy Roundtree (RS Freshman) - tall and skinny, he'll fight for PT at outside WR.

James Rogers (Junior) - tall, skinny, and great speed. Not a natural at WR, but has the physical abilities to outmatch just about any DB he'll face.

Jeremy Gallon (Freshman) - another in the long line of smurf sized phenomenal athletes that Rodriguez will likely be recruiting to Michigan. He figures to fight for PT in the slot WR rotation with Odoms and Robinson.

Not quite as deep and talented as the RBs, there is still plenty of talent at WR. That's a good thing because they will be playing 3 or 4 per play most of the time. Mathews and Odoms are a quality pair of returning players, but youngsters like Darryl Stonum and Terrence Robinson will be fighting to get their own numbers called more often and it should help everyone.

Offensive Line

Stephen Schilling (RS Junior) - former 5 star recruit and two year starter at RT. Michigan will need him to be a force. He has always been more advanced as a run blocker than a pass blocker, and his improvement against speed rushers will be key to a strong passing game.

Mark Ortmann (RS Senior) - part-time starter at LT this year will be fighting for PT next year with the addition of loads of RS freshmen.

Perry Dorrenstein (RS Junior) - the other part-time starter at LT this year will also be fighting for PT next year.

David Molk (RS Sophomore) - surprisingly good as a freshman in the Big Ten. Center is a key spot in this spread offense and he held his own. I actually think he could be a pretty good player for quite some time in this system.

David Moosman (RS Senior) - full time starter at RG this past year. He had some decent moments, but far from a great player. He'll be fighting for PT next year.

John Ferrara (RS Junior) - he was a DT until this fall when he got pushed to the OL because of injuries. At first he just looked like he wanted to hit somebody, but as the season went along he seemed a bit more comfortable blocking. I can't wait to see what an entire offseason working with the OL can do for his technique.

Tim McAvoy (RS Senior) - former TE and part-time starter at LG, he will be hard pressed to beat out some of the youngsters for PT next year. Still not sure if he will come back for a 5th year or not.

Patrick Omameh (RS Freshman) - now entering the extremely bright future of the OL section of things with this freshman from Columbus, Ohio. He's got plenty of buzz from practice this year and should weigh heavily into the competition for PT next season. Entered Michigan at 6'4" and only 260 lbs, I think a season of Barwis-izing will have him up closer to 275 or 280.

Ricky Barnum (RS Freshman) - a highly regarded interior OL prospect from Florida who also has a lot of buzz surrounding his play in practice this fall. He also started on the small size at 6'2", 265 lbs, but should be stronger next year. He might be hard to keep off the field.

Dann O'Neill (RS Freshman) - the star of Michigan's OL recruiting last year, he's a future OT but is still learning the finer points of blocking. Not sure if he'll be polished enough to start next year over some very experienced competition, but should be a very good one long term.

Rocko Khoury (RS Freshman) - gotta love a kid named Rocko. He has a big frame at 6'5" and 280 lbs and will be fighting for PT alongside everybody else.

Kurt Wermers (RS Freshman) - another solid interior OL prospect that will fight for PT. Starting to get the sense that Michigan might have a better OL next year????

The OL struggled mightily at times in 2008, but in 2009 they should be infinitely better. For one thing, the entire line basically returns intact. They also add a boatload of redshirt freshman that spent the year doing what true freshmen linemen do (getting bigger). I imagine maybe 1 or 2 of the freshman will become starters and everybody else should be better than they were this year. If nothing else, the competition will at least give the coaches choices of who to play instead of dragging players over from the DL to fill spots.

On the whole, I think we will see major improvements on offense in 2009. And considering the sad state of affairs in 2008 that is a good thing. The QB and OL positions in particular figure to see major improvements from a combination of maturing of last year's starters combined with a massive influx of talent to the positions. When you add in an extra year of familiarity with the new offense and it won't be a stretch to see them scoring 30+ points with regularity. At the bare minimum, they should have an average offense in the conference and not be fighting for dead last in most categories.

On a more personal note, Goalline Blitz is damn addictive.

A New Hope

2008-05-24T16:07:00.003-04:00

This post has been a long time coming. Sorry about that. I've been way too busy with work and personal life to spend much time on the net the last few months. Throw in that this is generally my blogging down time anyway and it's a recipe for a nonexistant blog.

Anyways, I'm starting to turn my attention towards college football once again. We aren't that far off from August and the clock is going to start ticking towards opening kickoff. I'm excited for Michigan football. Not excited in the sense that I get excited for Michigan football every year, but excited to watch something different. The last time there was this much change in Ann Arbor, Bo Schembechler had just been hired and brighter days were on the horizon.

What this post isn't going to be: bragging up Rich Rodriguez as the greatest coach ever, talking about Michigan being unbeatable, etc.

What is it about? Reasons for hope and excitement and enthusiasm. Reasons why Michigan might be on the brink of something special. I'm not talking about winning a national title this year. It isn't going happen. You don't lose Chad Henne and Mike Hart and Jake Long and Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington and several other starters and completely change the offense and then when a national championship. It doesn't happen. Heck, I'm probably not even talking about winning a Big Ten championship this year.

What I am talking about is a change in the culture of Michigan football that will hopefully pay long term dividends and put Michigan back atop the Big Ten conference for the forseeable future and end Ohio State's run of Big Ten titles.

On to some specifics...

Michigan's offense had become stagnant. They basically ran the same offense for the past 10-15+ years without a whole lot of change. Some details came and went such as the HB screen and the zone blocking scheme. But in general, it was the exact same sets and the exact same play calls. Watching Mike Hart run behind Jake Long for the 250th time last year got to be a bit predictable considering he had already done it 700 other times in his career. I think in a lot of ways, the overall consistency from year to year made them easy for opponents to game plan for. You knew what you had to defend and even if Michigan had better players, you had a little bit better chance of slowing them down.

Some people like to think Rich Rodriguez runs some kind of funky run and shoot offense that won't sit well in the Big Ten and bad weather. But honestly, he likes to run the ball as much as anybody else. I refuse to drag up a bunch of stats for this post, but his rushing offense was always dominant at West Virginia despite having a bunch of 2 and 3 star recruits running it. Two things that I absolutely love about Rodriguez's offensive philosophy. For one, he's flexible. When he had Shaun King at Tulane, they lit it up through the air with a dynamic passing game. When he got stuck with Pat White who couldn't throw the ball more than 15 yards in a spiral, he ran the ball heavily. I also love the idea of spreading out the defense and forcing them to play in space. As far as I can tell, Rodriguez wants to have a boat load of fast and talented TBs and slot WRs and outside WRs and force the defense into bad matchups that they can't win. He'd rather run the ball against a 5 man box than an 8 man box. He'd rather throw a swing pass to a blazing fast smurf matched up with an OLB or SS than a swing pass to a fullback. He also doesn't huddle much, forcing the defense to not substitute and get winded. Which brings me to conditioning....

Michigan's strength and conditioning had gotten stale under Mike Gittleson. I guess that is bound to happen when one guy runs the show for 25 odd years. Mike Barwis is winning a lot of support from players claiming to already be in the best shape of their lives after a few weeks with him to former players and current pros beating down the door to come for voluntary offseason workouts. The somewhat realistic hope from all this is pretty simple. Michigan fans and foes will tell you that they can recruit with the best in the country and have for years. But now you will be seeing these players getting even faster and even stronger which should create an even bigger advantage on the field for Michigan.

I'm not going to lie. This year is going to be ugly at times on offense. Steven Threet is a very talented QB, but he isn't going to kill people running the zone read option. Rodriguez is going to have to get creative to consistently move the ball. He'll have a deep and talented group of backs and receivers to work with, but inexperience abounds on the offensive line and under center. It will be a little frustrating at times to watch them run the ball from the shotgun on 3rd and one with four wide receivers and get stuffed at the line. But it will be exciting to see them break the same play for a 50 yard touchdown other times.

But deep down, the idea of Michigan forcing opponents to try to match up with superior athletes across the field and spreading the ball to all of them is exciting.

Defensively, I really like the hire Rodriguez made with Scott Shafer. He has made quite the name for himself at previous stops with Stanford and Western Michigan for loving to create havoc in the backfield. Expect to see Michigan blitzing heavily this fall and relying on outstanding CBs to hold their own in man coverage. With a young offense, it will be up to them to force some turnovers and get some short fields to work with.

I could go on. I probably will at some point. But blogging will still be pretty light until college football season revs up again. Either that or if the Tigers get red hot and pique my interest. Until then, I'm watching the Red Wings.

Don't Let the Door Hit You

2008-03-27T10:13:00.002-04:00

Justin Boren, junior G/C to be, has left the Michigan football team. Jeremy Ciulla and Alex Mitchell are also offensive linemen that have left the team since Lloyd Carr retired and Rich Rodriguez was hired.

Apparently, Justin has his reasons.

"Michigan football was a family, built on mutual respect and support for each other from Coach Carr on down. We knew it took the entire family, a team effort, and we all worked together. I have great trouble accepting that those family values have eroded in just a few months. That same helmet, that I was raised on and proudly claimed for the last two years, now brings a completely different emotion to me, one that interferes with practicing and playing my best and mentally preparing for what is required.

Two weeks ago, Justin was complaining about how hard it was adapting to the new offense...

The toughest thing, Boren said, is getting comfortable with the lightning-quick pace of the no-huddle attack relied upon by Rodriguez and offensive coordinator Calvin Magee.

"You've gotta be in damn good shape," he said. "This no-huddle is hard."

All this reminds me of a few tidbits from John U. Bacon's book

The player interviews were nothing compared to the shock they got once we started working out...in January. The rap on these guys around the league was that they were soft. And man, that's a terrible thing to hear. You can call one of my teams slow, short and weak with terrible coaching--but don't ever tell me my team is soft. We were going to fix that, too. As soon as I arrived, we set up a rather--shall we say--demanding off-season regimen...

We lost a few players during the winter workouts, but not many. I'm sure they figured we couldn't possibly run as much during spring ball--and they were right. In spring ball, we focused on hitting--every day, every session, full pads--and that's when guys really started dropping. In the middle of one of these sessions, when guys were dropping ten pounds of sweat blocking and tackling, you could see some of them look longingly at that damn track. It suddenly seemed like an oasis. Things got so hard that I had to put up that famous sing, "THOSE WHO STAY WILL BE CHAMPIONS." If you toughed it out, you'd be rewarded. I gave my word. Well, not everyone stayed, of course. We probably lost twenty or thirty guys. Some of them came to my office to quite face-to-face, and some just disappeared, never to be seen again.

I was prepared for some attrition. I can honestly say we did not lose a guy who really could have helped us. I didn't lose any sleep over anyone who quit that spring.

Does any of that sound a little similar to what Rich Rodriguez had to say about Boren leaving?

"Justin Boren has decided not to play," Rodriguez said. "I don't know if we'll have any more (attrition), but we're forging ahead with guys that play for Michigan."

Seems to me that Rich Rodriguez is working the team harder than they've ever been worked before and some players aren't up to it. Best of luck to them wherever they go, but the team will be much stronger for it in the end.

Justin Verlander

2008-03-13T16:08:00.002-04:00

There has been a lot said about the Tigers offense in 2008 and how many runs they might score. Some say 1000 is not out of the question, I say they are on crack. 900 isn't out of the question, though, and they should definitely have one of the 3 or 4 highest scoring teams in the majors. But what about the pitching? Let's start with the brightest of the Tigers pitching stars.

You know the name, you know the game: Justin Verlander

He just turned 25 a few weeks ago, yet his career list of accomplishments is already growing to be quite impressive.

2nd overall pick out of Old Dominion in the 2004 draft
2006 American League rookie of the year
2007 American All Star
7th place in the 2006 American League Cy Young voting
5th place in the 2007 American League Cy Young voting
Highest W/L percentage in the American League in 2007
First Detroit Tiger to pitch a no hitter since 1984
Started 2 games in the 2006 World Series

But beyond just the anecdotes and traditional stats, Verlander has been putting together quite the meteoric rise up the MLB pitching heirarchy. Consider his improvements from 2005 (spot callup starts) to 2006 (rookie season) to 2007 (full blown ace):

Wins and Losses
2005: 0-2
2006: 17-9
2007: 18-6

ERA
2005: 7.15
2006: 3.63
2007: 3.66

Batting Average Allowed
2005: .313
2006: .266
2007: .233

On Base Percentage Allowed
2005: .389
2006: .328
2007: .309

Slugging Percentage Allowed
2005: .479
2006: .414
2007: .358

Strikeouts per 9 IP
2005: 5.56
2006: 6.00
2007: 8.17

Strikeout to Walk Ratio
2005: 1.40
2006: 2.07
2007: 2.73

Home Runs per 9 IP
2005: 0.77
2006: 1.02
2007: 0.89

What's not to love about this kid's career trajectory? He is consistently improving his numbers across the board showing better control and more strikeouts and allowing fewer baserunners and fewer hard hit balls. He just turned 25 and has superstardom ahead of him. Considering the offensive support he is likely to garner this year, he must be considered amongst the favorites to win the Cy Young in 2008.

A guess at some not out of the question numbers for Justin Verlander in 2008:

32 starts, 210 innings, 22-6, 3.11 ERA, 230 strikeouts, 70 walks

Heck, 23 or 24 wins isn't out of the question for this kid with a high scoring offense backing him up, especially with his skyrocketing strikeout rate. Did you know that from June 1st on last year, his K rate jumped from 6.62 to 8.96? Yep, he started out slowly but then posted a number of big K games.

Slow start to 2008

2008-03-01T08:21:00.003-05:00

So it's been a slow start to 2008 for blogging. Guess I've been too busy (minor understatement). But spring is here and spring training is under way. Detroit made a splash this offseason by acquiring Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera from the Florida Marlins, a move which instantly put them as one of the World Series favorites this year. Everybody knows Miguel Cabrera is a great hitter, but just how great? Consider this...

he doesn't turn 25 until April, having already played 4.5 seasons in the majors
4 straight seasons of 100+ RBI
3 seasons of 100+ runs scored
3 straight .300+ batting average seasons
3 seasons of 30+ home runs
4 straight All Star game appearances
3 straight seasons in the top 10 in intentional walks

Of Cabrera's 10 most similar hitters through age 24 according to Baseball-Reference, 9 are either in the Hall of Fame (Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, Joe Medwick, Al Kaline, and Mickey Mantle) or soon to be (Ken Griffey Jr, Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero).

And he's just now starting to get serious about playing baseball? Watch out American League.

Over the last three seasons, from age 22-24, Cabrera put up a batting line of .327/.405/.564 which is out of this world for somebody so young. For comparison, Albert Pujols hit .334/.416/.628 at the same age in a better hitters park and he's one of the all time greats at that age.

He's that good and he's that young. The sky is the limit for this kid and he's easily the best young hitter the Tigers have had since I've been alive and probably since most fans today have been alive. Hopefully they can lock him up for the long term.

Citrus Bowl Preview

2007-12-31T14:57:00.000-05:00

I realize it's now the Capital One Bowl, but I don't agree with corporate naming of bowl games so I'm choosing to go with Citrus Bowl. "You can't spell Citrus without U T" just wouldn't be the same any other way.

Lloyd Carr's farewell
The end of an era
Mike Hart and Chad Henne and Jake Long finish their Michigan careers
Urban Meyer pretends to be nice after badmouthing Michigan last year

There are lots of ways to look at this game. Normally, I'd break down all the statistics and come up with a pretty good guess of the outcome and Michigan's chances for victory. Not this year folks. It's not that I don't care. It's that I'm afraid of looking at the numbers. Michigan sucked this year. It started from the first game and continued the last game. I prefer to just look at some of the possibilities in this game and what they might mean.

For one, this is definitely the end of an era at Michigan and it actually saddens me quite a bit. Lloyd Carr is without a doubt one of the absolute best people in college football. His kids go to class. They graduate. They work hard. They develop as people. They contribute to the community. They come back year after year because they love the school and program so much. Lloyd is the last in a line going back to the day Bo was hired in 1969. It's an unbroken string of Big Ten championships and power football that dominated the Big Ten and culminated in a national championship in 1997.

Rich Rodriguez is going to usher in a new era at Michigan. That's exciting, but it's also a little scary. As long as I've been alive, the rest of the Big Ten knew what Michigan was going to do to them on Saturday and they were pretty sure that they couldn't do anything about it. Michigan also held their own against Ohio State in the greatest rivalry in college football, sometimes momentum swung one way (9-1-1) and sometimes it swung the other (current 4 game winning streak for OSU). There were Heisman trophies on offense (Desmond) and defense (Woodson). It's a hell of an era that is coming to a close. In the end, Lloyd Carr just refused to change a little too much in the changing landscape of college football.

So what do I expect from this game against Florida? Who the hell knows. It could be ugly. Florida has a lot of talent and scored a lot of points this year with their Heisman winning dual threat quarterback Tim Tebow. Michigan never fares well against mobile QBs and has quite the bowl losing streak going. Everybody expects Florida to win in a romp. Well, almost everybody. The guys wearing the Maize and Blue are going to fight tooth and nail in this one. And that's the last little bit of hope that I have left. I've seen them at their best and they can beat anybody. Whether or not they will is another story.

So what needs to happen for Michigan to win? Here are my keys to Michigan pulling the monumental upset:

1) Make Tebow one dimensional. Do not let him beat you running the ball. There is a huge responsibility to the LBs and DL to actually get Tebow on the ground when they get a chance. He's a big boy and hard to bring down and we've missed a lot of tackles on QBs this season. Shawn Crable and company absolutely have to come up big in this one.

2) Healthy Mike Hart. If Michigan Mike can stay healthy, he will churn out the yards. And nothing makes a Lloyd Carr offense more dangerous that a solid running game. You can pretty much pencil him in for 150 yards in the culmination of his record setting career if he can stay healthy.

3) Let Chad Henne air it out. They need the 2006 OSU gameplan in this one. The coaches have to know they need a lot of points and then to cut Manningham and Arrington and Mathews loose on the Gators secondary. This is no time to be conservative against a Gator D that is suspect against the pass and hasn't seen a group of WRs like Michigan will throw at them.

4) Special teams. Need a big game from the coverage units against Brandon James and it wouldn't hurt to break one themselves.

Prediction?

I can't do it. It's too painful to type what I expect to see happen. The only difference is that after this game nobody will be calling for the coach to get fired.

UPDATE

God that was sweet to watch in too many ways to count. The most obvious is congrats to Lloyd Carr for a wonderful career. I'll have many, many more thoughts on it at some point in the next few days.

Rich Rodriguez Runs to Victory

2007-12-23T19:32:00.000-05:00

One thing that baffles my mind is the large number of college football fans that have a basic misunderstanding of philosophy and play calling when it comes to various styles of offense. The simple inability to differentiate between the spread option attack run by Rich Rodriguez and Urban Meyer from the spread passing attack run by Joe Tiller and Bill Belichick is crazy. The one and only thing they share is a shotgun formation (at times) and a 4 WR set. That's it. The spread option starts almost every play with either a handoff or fake handoff to the TB. Almost every single passing play is play action or misdirection. Many of the passes are wide receiver screens or short crossing routes and there is not much in the way of downfield passing.

What I want to do here is characterize Rich Rodriguez as an offensive playcaller in terms of run/pass balance at various places he has been. This will give us an idea of where Michigan might be heading in the future.

2007 West Virginia Mountaineers

166/246 passing for 1891 yards
589 rushes for 3515 yards

QB Pat White lead the team with 1185 rushing yards (on 177 attempts) and 1548 passing yards (on 197 attempts). The team as a whole ran the ball 71% of the time.

2006 West Virginia Mountaineers

149/233 passing for 2059 yards
590 rushes for 3939 yards

QB Pat White was second on the team with 1295 rushing yards (on 165 attempts) and lead the team with 1655 passing yards (on 179 attempts). This team as a whole ran the ball 72% of the time.

2005 West Virginia Mountaineers

122/193 passing for 1398 yards
625 rushes for 3269 yards

QB Pat White was second on the team with 952 rushing yards (on 131 attempts) and lead the team with 828 passing yards (on 114 attempts). This team as a whole ran the ball 76% of the time.

2004 West Virginia Mountaineers

149/259 passing for 1993 yards
589 rushes for 3019 yards

QB Rasheed Marshall was second on the team with 861 rushing yards (on 169 attempts) and lead the team with 1886 passing yards (on 242 attempts). This team as a whole ran the ball 69% of the time.

2003 West Virginia Mountainers

129/252 passing for 2034 yards
600 rushes for 2762 yards

QB Rasheed Marshall was third on the team with 303 rushing yards (on 101 attempts) and lead the team with 1729 passing yards (on 215 attempts). This team as a whole ran the ball 70% of the time.

2002 West Virginia Mountaineers

148/279 passing for 1753 yards
714 rushes for 3687 yards

QB Rasheed Marshall was third on the team with 666 rushing yards (on 173 attempts) and lead the team with 1616 passing yards (on 259 attempts). This team as a whole ran the ball 72% of the time.

2001 West Virginia Mountaineers

192/355 passing for 1811 yards
474 rushes for 1999 yards

QB Rasheed Marshall was second on the team in rushing with 210 yards (on 41 attempts) and QB Brad Lewis lead the team with 1339 passing yards (on 237 attempts). This team as a whole ran the ball 57% of the time.

2000 Clemson Tigers

159/296 passing for 2311 yards
557 rushes for 2600 yards

QB Woody Dantzler was second on the team with 947 rushing yards (on 172 attempts) and lead the team with 1691 passing yards (on 212 attempts). This team as a whole ran the ball 65% of the time.

1999 Clemson Tigers

252/423 passing for 3019 yards
497 rushes for 1812 yards

QB Woody Dantzler was second on the team with 588 rushing yards (on 146 attempts) and lead the team with 1506 passing yards (on 201 attempts). This team as a whole ran the ball 54% of the time.

1998 Tulane Green Wave

251/375 passing for 3495 yards
518 rushes for 2523 yards

QB Shaun King was third on the team with 633 rushing yards (on 156 attempts) and lead the team with 3495 passing yards (on 365 attempts). This team as a whole ran the ball 58% of the time.

1997 Tulane Green Wave

201/366 passing for 2608 yards
424 rushes for 2038 yards

QB Shaun King was second on the team with 511 rushing yards (on 124 attempts) and lead the team with 2577 passing yards (on 363 attempts). This team as a whole ran the ball 54% of the time.

A couple things jump out. For one, Rodriguez loves to run the ball. In the last 11 years, his lowest run percentage was 54% (in his first year at both Tulane and Clemson). He also tends to run the ball a lot more the longer he is at a school, which may be a product of recruitng more guys that fit his system the longer he is there. Even his record setting Tulane offense in 1998 ran the ball 58% of the time, despite being characterized as a wide open passing attack.

I think in the long run, Michigan will settle out running the ball between 60-65% of the time with Rodriguez at the helm. He should be able to recruit some dual threat QBs that are better passers than Pat White, but it's also plainly obvious that even when he has a future NFL QB he is going to run the ball a lot. Take a look at those West Virginia rushing yardage totals. When is the last time Michigan cracked 3000 yards on the ground in a season? Rodriguez has done it 4 straight years in Morgantown.

It's also worth noticing that QBs tend to rank very highly on the rushing list each year for Rodriguez. In 11 years since he left Glenville State in the NAIA, the worst a QB has finished in rushing yardage on his team is 3rd and only twice has he failed to have a QB rush for at least 500 yards on the season.

Rich Rodriguez

2007-12-20T19:23:00.000-05:00

"Thank you all very much -- great crowd. It's an honor and privilege to be named the University of Michigan's head football coach. I will tell you, it was a very difficult decision to leave a place where I grew up, a program that we had built over the last seven years, to leave family and friends and a wonderful team with great young men. As I mentioned, it was a very difficult decision and in order to leave there, it was going to take a very special opportunity and a very special place, and I think that's what this is."

And with that, the Rich Rodriguez era in Ann Arbor got underway. I must admit that his name surfacing at the end of the coaching search came as a bit of a surprise to me. Honestly, I never thought he'd be in the mix as a candidate after turning down Alabama last year. I mean what was Michigan going to offer that Alabama didn't? They had a big contract at one of the true historical powers in the sport in a big time conference and he said "no thanks". Michigan came along offering a little bit more money and perhaps a little bit bigger of a name, but he decided to bite and for that the fans of Michigan should be greatful.

What do I make of the hire? Boy, oh boy, things are going to be changing in Ann Arbor. From the day Bo Schembechler was hired before the 1969 season until Lloyd Carr's last game in two weeks, it has been a long and continuous run of success at Michigan capped by the 1997 national title. Michigan has often been close but not in the national title chase, but has also been a bully in the Big Ten for 40 years. And they did it basically the same way. Sure, things changed a little over the years. But the people and the philosophy were the same.

What will 2008 bring? Fasten your seatbelts because this isn't your father's Michigan anymore. Rich Rodriguez favors a spread option attack that spreads the defense out and is always on the move. He also likes to go with a no huddle offense. He likes to score a lot of points. He is willing to take risks on offense. He isn't afraid to gamble at times. Gone are the days of Michigan sitting on a 10 point lead in the 3rd quarter content to let the defense close it out. Rodriguez will also likely be bringing about a change in the strength and conditioning program. Depending on who you ask, that might lead to big improvements in the explosiveness of players on both sides of the ball.

Beyond just a change in style, Rich Rodriguez has almost no prior connection to the University of Michigan. He is from outside the family. He is going to have to learn about what it means to be the head coach of the University of Michigan and everything that goes along with it. But he is a very good coach. He transformed West Virginia from a program that was usually on the fringe of the top 25 to a program that is looking for it's 3rd straight top 10 finish and was one bad loss away from playing for the national title. A common complaint from detractors is that he did it against a weak schedule and didn't have many quality wins. Well, I'd like to point out that he also did it with players at WEST VIRGINIA and almost no recruiting base. I'm confident that he can do big things at Michigan with all the talent that he will have at his disposal.

I don't know what his coaching staff will look like and I don't know how exactly how he will fit his offense around the talents of Ryan Mallett. What I do know is that he is a very good coach that he will figure out how to win a lot of games at Michigan. I look forward to seeing what he can do against Jim Tressel and the rest of the Big Ten.

Congrats to Bill Martin for another good coaching hire and apologies to West Virginia fans for once again taking one of your coaches.

Coach - O - Rama

2007-11-26T19:20:00.001-05:00

Since the retirement of Lloyd Carr, the rumors of who is to be the new coach of Michigan have kicked into full gear. Most recently, apparently false rumors of Kirk Ferentz accepting the job and being on the verge of an announcement have swept around in the last 48-72 hours. Brian knows his stuff and I think I know where he got some of his information from. As best I can tell there have been some actual serious looking at Ferentz as a candidate by Michigan combined with some Iowa fans spreading some false rumors of Ferentz as accepting the job. I think the two are totally unrelated and the timing is ironic and kind of funny. So where does Ferentz stand in the Michigan head coaching search? I think he is still a candidate, though I don't think any decisions have been made yet.

So here are some of my thoughts on some potential names I have seen kicked around in various locations. Some are more likely than others. We'll start with the 500 lb gorilla in the room.

Les Miles - I think everybody knows the story. Former OL under Bo Schembechler who also had 2 stints in Ann Arbor as an assistant coach. He had some success at Oklahoma State including some big wins over rival Oklahoma and he has had more success at LSU taking over for Nick Saban.

What are some of the pros for Miles? Well, he's a "Michigan Man", whatever that means. He certainly knows what it takes to be successful in Ann Arbor and he certainly loves the school. He also has had success as a head coach in both the Big Twelve and the SEC. LSU finished 6th in the AP poll his first season and 3rd in the AP poll last season. This year they were at or near the top until their recent triple OT loss to Arkansas. You still have to figure they are a good bet to once again finish in the top 5 nationally. Miles also is not afraid to gamble on the field which is a little different than Lloyd Carr. He is not afraid to fake field goals and punts and just go for it on 4th down over and over. There is definitely a little riverboat gambler mentality in Les and that's not a bad thing.

Some of the cons? He has a big mouth and will say some un-PC things to the media. Who can forget "we have a new rival in fucking Alabama"? He also didn't profess to be a fan of the Pac Ten while ridiculing the USC schedule. After 13 years of listening to Lloyd Carr extoll the virtues of every single opponent he plays and talk them up left and right, are Michigan fans ready for a coach that will pop off at any time about any topic and risk offending lots of people? I'm not sure, though I admit it would be fun to listen to him talk about his true feelings about Ohio State. There are also some folks that feel Les has never had a truly great season losing some games each year that he shouldn't. However, you can say that regarding just about any coach in the country. Given the tough schedules he has faced at LSU, I'd say he has handled himself quite well in the W/L category. Also various rumors about Oklahoma State players being surprised they had to go to class and attending meetings and other such routine things after Coach Gundy (he of the press conference tirade) replaced Miles.

The bottom line is that Miles is a good coach and would likely have Michigan routinely in the top 5 or 10 in the country and in the hunt for national titles. How many times he'd embarrass himself by saying something dumb in the media would be up to speculation.

Kirk Ferentz - former player and assistant coach at Iowa that has been the Hawkeyes' head coach since 1999.

Pros? Mary Sue Coleman (the Michigan prez) apparently still loves him from her days at Iowa. Personally, that does nothing for me because she doesn't know anything about sports. His star was much brighter a few years ago when Iowa had three straight #8 rankings in the final AP poll. Lloyd Carr is also a fan of Ferentz.

Cons? Too many to list them all. For one, Iowa has struggled mightily the last three years and has lost some horrible games. If you thought losing to Appalachian State was bad, imagine losing a home game to Western Michigan in the season finale with a bowl on the line. That's the ultimate "what the fuck" moment for a coach. It's also not so hot to go 6-6 overall and 4-4 in the Big Ten this past year when he got to skip Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule. And can you say "off field problems"? Iowa's got way more than I can count with Ferentz at the helm. And don't get me started on the bend but don't break and don't ever blitz philosophy that Ferentz and Norm Park love on offense combined with the run, run, and run some more style he likes on offense.

Kirk Ferentz has a stellar reputation as a head coach. He unfortunately has not had much results recently and there is no great explanation why. In a best case scenario if hired, he could bring some changes off the field in terms of strength and conditioning, but it would realistically be like hiring a younger Lloyd Carr. I would hope he could keep the off the field problems away, but his track record isn't great. I'd also hope he would take a few more chances on the field but I wouldn't hold my breath. It would be a thoroughly boring choice and my only hope would be that he could prove me wrong on the field. My biggest hope would be that he would hire an offensive coordinator that had some cajones in playcalling and we'd have to wait and see who that would be.

Mike DeBord - Lloyd's buddy. You probably know him as the current (or is that soon to be former) offensive coordinator for the Wolverines. He was previously seen as the Central Michigan head coach from 2000-2003 when he lead them to a thoroughly unimpressive 12-34 record.

Pros? None. Lloyd likes him. Probably a nice guy. Wouldn't get lost driving to work in Ann Arbor. He also wouldn't need to look for a house.

Cons? Horrible resume as head coach against bad competition. I shutter to think what he'd do against the big boys.

DeBord would be perhaps the only candidate who's name has been tossed around that would make me instantly call for the heads of everyone responsible for the decision from AD Bill Martin to University presient Mary Sue Coleman.

Ron English - the current defensive coordinator for the Wolverines. English was a long time west coaster before coming to Ann Arbor having played and coached at Cal and coach at Arizona State prior to being named DBs coah for Michigan. This is his 2nd season as DC replacing Jim Hermann.

Pros? English definitely has a different attitude than Carr. He's a young and energetic coach that demands excellence from his players. He's also african american for whatever that is worth.

Cons? His defense was dominant in the first 11 games last year, but has not been nearly so hot the last 13 games. Coaching? Players? Both? I don't know, but his star has lost a little luster.

Ron English might be a very good head coach some day. I'm just not sure Michigan wants to roll the dice on him right now considering he has a total of 2 years of experience as a coordinator.

Brian Kelly - Kelly is currently in his first year at Cincinnati after guiding Central Michigan for 3 years and 13 years at Division 2 Grand Valley State.

Pros? He wins games. In his final 3 years at GVSU, the Lakers went 41-2 including a 32 game winning streak and 2 national titles. At Central Michigan, he cleaned up Mike DeBord's mess going 4-7, 6-5, and 9-4. In his last season, the Chips were the MAC champions. Now he's got Cincinnati in the top 25 in the Big East in his first season. Kelly also is a fan of a wide open attacking offense and he is not afraid to take chances. His style of play would be a welcome change of pace from what Michigan fans are used to watching.

Cons? Not many. This is his first year in a BCS conference level school at Cincinnati, but he does have plenty of coaching experience. He has also been successful everywhere he has gone. One little incident that is a knock on his resume were some comments he made to the press after some players at CMU were involved in an incident at a bar that left one man dead. Kelly made some remarks about how some of the players (who were black) were raised in a culture of violence. He later apologized. Depending on who you talk to this is either a really big deal or a really small deal. The only certainty is that nobody around the country knows or remembers this and it's really only in the minds of those looking for it.

Chris Peterson - the current head coach of Boise State, Peterson will be an intersting candidate for some big jobs over the next 1-2 years.

Pros? He lead Boise State to a 13-0 season in 2006 (his first as head coach) including a Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma and was later named national coach of the year. Not a bad debut season. He has a pretty lengthy career as an assistant coach under his belt, however. A former QB at UC Davis, he coached quarterbacks at Portland State and Pittsburgh and Oregon. He also served as offensive coordinator at Boise State under Dan Hawkins for 4 seasons, twice being named a finalist for national assistance coach of the year (Broyles Award). He is a fantastic offensive mind and definitely not afraid to take chances to go for a victory.

Cons? A grand total of 2 years now as a head coach at a small school in a small conference isn't exactly the best way to prepare to jump into one of the biggest fishbowls in the country. I'm not saying he wouldn't be successful, but he would have to make major changes to what he is used to doing. Recruiting against Ohio State for a kid from Cleveland is a little different than pitching Boise State football to a kid from Pocatello or a juco transfer.

Peterson would be an interesting hire. I'd rather go for Brian Kelly if they were really looking to make a splash because of his lengthy track record as a head coach, however Peterson is a dynamite offensive playcaller. I doubt he gets an interview, but it's not totally out of the question.

I might get into some more names later like Butch Davis, but that's I'll I've got for now.

Hoops and Hockey

2007-11-11T14:03:00.000-05:00

The John Beilein era is well under way as the Wolverines got off to a 2-0 start this weekend with wins over Radford and Brown. You can easily say that it is just Radford and Brown, but Michigan looked much different on the court compared to previous years. And I'm not just talking turtlenecks...

Freshman Corperryale (aka Manny) Harris and sophomore DeShawn Sims both got off to good starts and should be quite the dynamic duo this season. Through 2 games, Sims is averaging 20.0 points and 5.5 rebounds while Harris is scoring 17.5 points and dishing 4.0 assists per game. There are enough role players around them that the Wolverines could give some top teams some real problems this year. Player by player brief previews:

#1 Jerrett Smith - the 6'3" junior point guard is still limited in foot speed, but is a good passer and can knock down the open shot

#2 CJ Lee - a 6'0" junior point guard that transferred from Manhattan. He's got speed and is looking to force his way into the lineup.

#3 Manny Harris - reportedly up to 6'7" with long arms, this kid is multitalented. His strongest suit is defense, but he is also dynamic taking the ball to the rim. Once his outside shot rounds into form more consistently, he will be one of the best players in the Big Ten.

#5 K'len Morris - the 6'4" redshirt freshman can play almost anywhere on the floor and he figures to be a valuable player off the bench this year. A natural passer with good basketball smarts.

#12 Anthony Wright - 6'4" redshirt freshman with broad shoulders (he outweighs Morris by 50 pounds) and a smooth outside jumper. He'll be battling Ron Coleman for PT at the 3/4 spots.

#15 Jevohn Shepherd - 6'5" junior with outstanding athleticism. He's a great defender, but struggles mightily to contribute on offense. It will be interesting to see if Beilein can improve him.

#22 Ekpe Udoh - 6'10" sophomore center with long arms and a knack for blocking shots. He has decent range to about 1o or 12 feet, but he will not be shooting three pointers this year. He should provide very solid defense on the interior.

#24 Ron Coleman - 6'6" senior (the only one on the roster) is mostly a role player. He can knock down open shots and can grab some defensive rebounds, but that's about it. He is a poor passer and is slow and subpar defensively.

#32 Zack Gibson - 6'10" redshirt sophomore transfer from Rutgers is a big kid with a good shooting touch out to three point range. Can you say Kevin Pittsnogle? Well, I won't. But he will provide some scoring touch.

#34 DeShawn Sims - 6'8" sophomore is a dynamic talent that can score both inside and out and might be one of the tougher covers in the conference.

#44 Kelvin Grady - 5'11" freshman point guard that has blazing speed in the open court and a good shoot touching behind the arc. He figures to challenge Jerrett Smith and CJ Lee for most of the point guard minutes this season. He could be a Dee Brown type player as he gains experience.

I'm giddy with excitement that Michigan basketball will once again be worth watching.

On to hockey...

Michigan swept the UAF Nanooks this weekend at Yost to improve to 9-1-0 on the season including 6-0-0 in CCHA play. It's too hard for me to follow the hockey team from a distance, but suffice to say they are off to a great start. Considering they weren't picked to do much this year, Red Berenson is doing a great job so far. It will be interesting to see how they do in the Showcase against Minnesota and Wisconsin and also how they fare against current #1 Miami in CCHA play.

Game Time

2007-11-11T12:56:00.000-05:00

Now that the formalities are out of the way (Michigan's stinker in Madison), it's time to find out if this team can win the Big Ten and represent in the Rose Bowl again. Ohio State didn't fare so well in their warm up either, but they still had the national title on the line so that was a head scratcher.

No worries, though, as Michigan is just rounding into health for the Ohio State game and it'll be nice to not see Troy Smith out there again. Chad Henne barely played and Mike Hart didn't play at all against the Badgers so that both can be as close to 100% as possible for The Game.

What did I learn from the Wisconsin game?

Ryan Mallett is still nowhere close to being a prime time performer. He makes a mental mistake almost every other time he drops back to pass and some of them are devastating.
I also learned that nobody can hope to cover Mario Manningham and he's the best route runner I've ever seen at Michigan.
It's also painfully obvious that Michigan has no ground game without Mike Hart. His continual ability to make something out of nothing is missing in both Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown.
Michigan's run defense has struggled mightily the last 6 quarters against MSU and Wisconsin and the LBs need to get it straightened out ASAP.
Tyler Donovan made some nifty moves in the pocket, but it's still frustrating to watch the pass rushers just whiff time after time when they have a QB in their sights. Fortunately Todd Boeckman is a big target that should be easier to get a hold of.

The season was a disaster following the 0-2 start, but this team has rebounded and has a chance to earn a spot in the Rose Bowl and that kind of toughness has to be appreciated. It would also be nice to send Lloyd Carr out with a win over Ohio State and Jim Tressel in his final attempt.

Thoughts on the hockey and hoops teams later today after Beilein's squad improves to 2-0...

Next on CBS: Big Brother!

2007-11-05T19:20:00.003-05:00

So apparently Mark Dantonio doesn't take kindly to Mike Hart referring to his program as the little brother in the state. I don't know much, but I do know that it is HI-LARIOUS to watch a rival coach have Mike Hart get so far into his head that he feels the need to comment on it at his press conference two days after the fact.

Let's just run through a little time line of sorts to provide a background to this and some other nonsense.

September 17th, 2005 - Michigan State beats Notre Dame and proceeds to plant a flag at midfield in South Bend (HT for the reminder of this to MGOBLOG).

September 1st, 2007 - Mark Dantonio offers to have a moment of silence for Michigan after being informed that they just lost to Appalachian State. Here's a thread at the RCMB pretty much dedicated to how awesome that quote was and how much they love their new coach.

October 30th, 2007 - Coach Dantonio, the same guy that installed a clock counting down to the Michigan game before the season even started, asks his players if they are ready to stop bowing to Michigan.

November 3rd, 2007 - Michigan beats Michigan State 28-24 on the field, once again coming from behind to beat MSU in dramatic fashion.

November 3rd, 2007 - Michigan celebrates the victory by having a mock moment of silence on the field for the Spartans and then bowing to Dantonio.

November 3rd, 2007 - Mike Hart in the postgame press conference...
"I was just laughing," Hart would later say about the crazed crowd when MSU was leading. "I thought it was funny. They got excited. It's good. Sometimes you get your little brother excited when you're playing basketball and let him get the lead, then you just come back and take it back."

November 3rd, 2007 - Jehuu Caulcrick's postgame press conference where he whines that "You don't have to rub it in...you go off the field, you celebrate with your team...you don't try to rub it in, that's a lack of respect". Sorry Jehuu, after planting a flag at midfield you aren't allowed to complain about this EVER.

November 5th, 2007 - Mark Dantonio goes off about everything except the beating his team took in his weekly PC...
“I find a lot of the things that they do amusing,” Dantonio said on Monday. “They need to check themselves sometimes. But just remember, pride comes before the fall.” Dantonio also addressed Mike Hart’s comments after the game in which he referred to MSU as the “little brother” of U-M. “Does Hart have a little brother or is he the little brother?” Dantonio asked. “I don’t know, he’s…” Then Dantonio placed his hand up to his chest to illustrate Hart’s stature.

I mean where do you even begin commenting on this stupidity? Caulcrick having the stones to criticize the way Michigan celebrated their victory after his showmanship a few years back? Dantonio making fun of Mike Hart's height two days after the game? Anybody having the balls to criticize Michigan's moment of silence after the wise cracks coming from the MSU side when Michigan lost to Appalachian State? It's insane. The entire Michigan team from coaches to players kept the mouths shut all season long regarding MSU. They didn't say a word about the Spartans, while MSU continued to take little shots here and there. Then Michigan wins (AGAIN) and let's the Spartans know what they thought of their antics before the game and the entire Spartan world takes offense to this?

PUHHHLEEEEEEEZ

Don't whine about being called Little Brother if you can't stop obsessing over every little detail of your latest loss to Michigan. Don't go bragging about how Michigan will get theirs and about the latest round of revenge you'll be seeking next year after Mike Hart tells you all about what he thinks of your program. Guess what, for the rest of his life he's 4-0 against Michigan State with a pair of 200+ yard games on the ground and a pair of 100+ yard games on the ground. From here to eternity, he can always point to the scoreboard.

Oh, and it might help if you got a head coach that didn't insist on trying to piss off Michigan. I got news for you, taunting them in the papers and threatening swift revenge next year isn't going to make winning any easier.

Random Thoughts on Michigan Football

2007-10-28T21:02:00.000-04:00

It's been a long journey back to respectability for the Michigan football team after a disatrous start to 2007. But, I think they might be back. The most recent incarnation of the BCS rankings puts them at #12 in the nation. I find that a little strange since they were #20 last week and it ties them with Georgia for the biggest jump since last week at 8 spots worth of improvement. Georgia had to beat Florida by 12 points to earn that, while Michigan merely needed to beat Minnesota. It's also nice to see the BCS math at work. Michigan ranks #15 and #14 in the polls and is #16 in computer average, so 15+14+16/3 = 12 in BCS land. It works out, though, because of some massive disparities between the computers and the polls for other teams. USC, for example, is #13 and #15 in the polls, but completely out of 4 of the BCS computer rankings which drops them to #19 in the BCS. Hawaii and Texas average out around #11 in the polls, but Texas is unranked by any computer and Hawaii is only ranked by 1 computer so they both get zero points from the computer rankings.

What does all this mean for the future? I hesitate to use my imagination, because I might find some slimmer of hope that Michigan doesn't deserve after the loss to Appalachian State and the beatdown by Oregon. I'll just stick to understanding that Michigan is 5-0 in the Big Ten and heading to East Lansing with the Rose Bowl firmly on their minds.

Speaking of Michigan State, the more things change (another new coach) the more they stay the same (another horrible loss, this time to Iowa). Is there a more schizophrenic program in the country? Michigan beat Minnesota without Chad Henne and without Mike Hart, but both figure to return for the game in East Lansing. You know the Spartan fans and defenders really don't want to see Mike Hart. In 3 career games against the instate rivals, Hart has rushed for 224 yards, 218 yards, and 124 yards. That's 91 carries for 564 yards and 2 TDs for those keeping score at home. In case you wondering, the previous Michigan record for rushing yards against a single opponent was held by Tyrone Wheatley against Iowa with 519 yards in three games.

Don't forget Mario Manningham. He just ripped off his 4th straight conference game with over 100 yards receiving and a TD when he torched Minnesota for a career high 162 yards. That gives him 32 catches for 541 yards and 6 TDs in his last 4 games. He joins Braylon Edwards as the only Wolverine to ever have 4 straight 100 yard games receiving and he is the first to do it in 4 straight Big Ten games.

Shawn Crable is having a monster year at LB. He ranks 2nd nationally with 22 tackles for loss and has thrown in 60 tackles and 7.5 sacks and 3 forced fubmles. He might be the best OLB in the nation right now.

All things considered, Michigan is playing pretty well right now. They've ripped off 7 straight wins against admittedly relatively weak competition, but they are starting to round into form. The defense has shored up against all sorts of formations and the offense is hitting on all cylinders with both backups and starters. What does this mean for the future? Two road games coming up with Michigan State and Wisconsin will both be tough but winnable. Then the biggie with the Buckeyes. I'm strangely confident about the OSU game this year. Maybe it's the comfort at Troy Smith being in the NFL. Maybe alcohol killed the rational brain cells I used to have. Who knows.

Bo's Lasting Lessons

2007-10-22T18:30:00.000-04:00

So I've been incognito for a few weeks working way too many hours day after day and sometimes night after night. Well, thankfully that little bump in the road is mostly behind me so I can have some free time every now and then. The kind folks at Grand Central Publishing were nice enough to send along a copy of Bo's Lasting Lessons by Bo Schembechler and John U. Bacon for me to read and review. I have no particular talent at reviewing books and I'm sure they sent out as many copies to as many blogs as possible, but I feel compelled to share my thoughts.

It was a darn good read, especially for a lifelong fan of Michigan. I'm a little young (not even 30 yet) to remember most of Bo's tenure at Michigan. My first memories of him were the tail end of his career when he kept running the same offense and I kept wishing that we'd throw the ball more and have more aggressive play calling (I loved Gary Moeller's offense). Over the years, I've heard numerous 3rd and 4th hand stories about Bo and had a few brushes with him at sporting events in Ann Arbor. I wasn't sure what to expect from this book, but since I'm a sucker for Michigan football I gave it an honest read. Well, let me tell you that I was actually impressed. It's told from Bo's point of view and it gives a lot of his insights into some of the most important moments in Michigan football over the last 40 years, both good and bad.

It's not just a collection of coach speak, but personal tales from Bo himself. You get a glimpse into his fiery determination to win. You see that his primary concern was the personal lives of his players and coaches. You get a chance to see how he helped players after they were long gone from Michigan. Most of all, though, you get a chance to see the real Bo and not the vague character seen storming the sidelines on ESPN Classic.

Bo's Lasting Lessons is an excellent book that I highly recommend for fans of Michigan football, or just fans of fired up old school coaches. There was one or two parts that brought a tear to my eye and at least one or two parts that made me want to throw on some pads and hit somebody. It was a beautiful glimpse into the inner workings of Michigan football that extend into today.

This might sound like whoring for the man for a free book, but it's a damn good book and I hope other Michigan fans can pick up a copy for themselves.

Mike Hart

2007-09-23T07:51:00.000-04:00

He's a warrior on the field and carried the ball 44 times against what was the #1 rushing defense in the nation statistically entering the game. Everybody knew he'd need to do it with Ryan Mallett still manning the QB position in Chad Henne's place against #10 Penn State. 153 yards and 1 TD later and it's another victory for Michigan. Quite the performance. Earlier this summer, I noted that Mike Hart was approaching several career records for Michigan. Well, they are going to ride him hard this season and he will have a good shot at some single season marks as well.

Four games into the season, Hart ranks #1 nationally with 655 rushing yards and #2 nationally with 163.75 yards per game and #1 nationally with 127 carries and #10 nationally with 6 rushing touchdowns.

Let's assume Michigan will play in a bowl game this year. Before the season, that was a given. After the 0-2 start, that was a major question. At this point, though, it seems pretty reasonable. That would give Michigan 13 games to play this season. Right now, Hart projects to 413 carries for 2129 yards and 20 TDs. That would be a hell of a season.

Rushing Attempts - the current single season mark is held by Chris Perry at 338 attempts. Hart needs 211 more in 9 games (23.4/game) to tie the mark. Assuming he's got a couple more 35+ carry games coming it would seem that he will break this mark if he stays healthy. I'm thinking 360+ is a likely bet at this point.

Rushing Yards - the current single season mark is held by Tim Biakabutuka at 1818 yards in 1995. Hart needs 1163 more yards in 9 games (129.2/game) which will be tough to do but is within reach. Hart's main problem will likely be that the Michigan coaches will look to give him some breaks against teams like Eastern Michigan so he might only end up with a few sub 100 yard games. I'm not ruling him out, though.

Rushing Touchdowns - Ron Johnson holds the single season mark with 19 rushing TDs in 1968. Hart needs 13 more in 9 games (1.44/game) to tie the record. This will be tough to do, but he will definitely get the ball near the goalline. If he can throw up a couple three TD games he'll have a chance.

100 Yard Games - the single season mark is currently held by Jamie Morris with ten 100 yard games in 1987. Mike Hart is 4/4 on the season and needs to get 6 of the last 9 to tie the mark. It seems pretty likely that he'll at least tie the mark and he might even break it.

A Decade

2007-09-20T18:20:00.001-04:00

Penn State. When you're Michigan, that's a team you have not lost to since 1996. That's a long time, even in Joe Paterno time. It's easily the longest losing streak Paterno has ever had to one opponent.

Well, that streak would appear to be in as much jeopardy as it has ever been. Michigan is 1-2 and I really don't have to go into much detail about the pair of brutal losses they suffered. Penn State is 3-0 and ranked #10 in both polls.

But is it really such a colossal mismatch? Does Michigan have any chance?

Let's take a little closer look.

Penn State is 3-0, but what have they really proven? Not much if you ask me. Florida International? Buffalo? Not exactly world beaters that they've played thus far and in fact they are two of the worst teams in the country. Then there is the common opponent in Notre Dame. Any blind person can see that Michigan dominated Notre Dame far more than Penn State did. Be it score (38-0 vs 31-10), yards gained (379-295), yards allowed (79 vs 144), or whatever other measure you want. Not exactly top 10 material if you ask me.

Then we come to Michigan. 38-0 over Notre Dame? I would've predicted that before the season began. After the 0-2 start and with Chad Henne out I did not see that coming. But what to make of it? Are all Michigan's struggles on defense really related to spread offenses with mobile QBs? It'd be nice if that were the case but it can't all be that simple. Is a beatdown of perhaps the worst Notre Dame team of all time really worth anything? Maybe not. There are still major questions about Michigan starting first and foremost with the QB situation. Will Henne play? Possibly, but unlikely if you ask me. Will Mallett be asked to do anything other than hand off to Mike Hart 50 times? Hopefully. Will he be up to the task? I have no idea.

Some keys for Michigan against Penn State:

1) Exert dominance in the ground game. Penn State has a young front four and Jake Long and co. need to continue the power ground game to keep the heat off Ryan Mallett. Let's be honest, Penn State has never held Mike Hart under 100 yards and they are unlikely to do so on Saturday. He's going to get the ball a lot.

2) Let Mallett make some plays down the field. He still makes some freshman mistakes like calling the wrong audible or locking on to one receiver at times, but the talent is undeniable. He might be big and lack speed, but he moves in the pocket well and is a natural at throwing on the run looking quite coordinated unlike Chad Henne who is more of a pure pocket passer that struggles to connect when rolling out. And yeah, he might have the strongest arm in the county as he looks effortless tossing it 30 or 40 yards on a line. I hope he gets to air it out a few times against a PSU defense that will be keyed on Mike Hart.

3) A big game by the defensive line to slow down the PSU rushing attack and get in Anthony Morelli's face. The DL dominated against Notre Dame and has a lot of talent, but they still need to prove it against a real opponent this year. Saturday would be a good day to start.

4) A solid showing in special teams. Zoltan the Destroyer needs a big game and it would help if they didn't muff any punts or miss any easy field goals.

I pretty much wrote off the 2007 season after the Oregon game. It's still brutal, but if the players still want to fight for the Big Ten title they need a great performance this week against a program looking to end a long losing streak.

Completely Random Thoughts

2007-09-09T08:56:00.000-04:00

While watching the Oregon game, a few thoughts popped into my mind:

- Chad Henne must've been out with a bruised vagina in the second half. I didn't think it was too serious, but now that he's doubtful for the Notre Dame game it must be pretty bad.

- Watching SS Jamar Adams and MLB John Thompson point fingers at each other wondering who was supposed to be covering the WR that just got wide open for a catch was amusing. I couldn't help but wonder why either one of them was supposed to have man coverage on somebody that neither could cover. Are the defensive coaches just that dumb? I mean they still can't figure out how to even slow down a spread attack. One guess what Notre Dame is going to try to do next week.

- I think Michigan's offense was walking around with two peg legs by the 2nd quarter with all the times they shot themselves in the foot. They had 215 yards of total offense less than 1 minute into the 2nd quarter and they couldn't score points to save their life.

- I was pleasantly surprised any time Oregon got less than 10 yards on a play from scrimmage.

- Why not just toss injuries on top of embarrasment with guys like Henne and Hart and Long and Brandon Graham and others all going down.

- On the plus side, I think Michigan is going to wrap up their fall from grace all into one season. No long, slow slides into mediocrity here. Let's just go 2-10 and get it over with.

- It was sort of refreshing to watch Michigan get hammered yesterday. This was no gut wrenching, agonizing defeat that Michigan fans had grown so accustomed to. 32 point margin of defeat? The horrible five loss campaign in 2005 featured losses by a combined 21 points. This was not a Lloyd Carr Michigan team. Carr's teams would get down by 21 points and then claw back to make it exciting in the final minutes before folding. I've never seen them just completely quit before. There are some serious off the field issues going on with this team.

- Mike Hart may have guaranteed a win over Notre Dame, but somebody forgot to tell him that he is the only player that even showed up against Oregon so I hope he isn't expecting too much help against the Irish.

- Thank God for the Big Ten Network so I will be spared the pain of watching much of this team. It's easy to not go to a bar to watch the game. It's hard to not watch it when it's on ABC or ESPN.

- There are some teams around the Big Ten licking their chops right now at the thought of facing this Michigan team. It's going to be like sharks with blood in the water. Minnesota, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, etc. have all been dying for a shot at a Wolverine team this bad. Hell, you know Penn State fans will be praying to finally end their massive losing streak regardless of how bad the Michigan team is.

- I feel sorry for Appalachian State. Their "historic" upset just doesn't look so impressive any more. You beat 2007 Michigan. Congrats. That might carry as much weight as beating Northwestern. I mean objectively, Michigan lost at home to a D1-AA team and got blown off the field at home by a middle of the road Pac Ten team. That's not very impressive.

- The first 11 games of the 2006 season are sure looking like an aberration right now. Michigan is 18-11 in their last 29 games, including those 11 wins. That's 7-11 from the 2004 OSU and 2005 Rose Bowl through the entire 7-5 campaign in 2005 and with the most recent 4 straight losses.

- Do I really want to look at how spread teams have fared over the last few years against Michigan? Probably not. It's been ugly. I think a well coached HS spread attack could score 20+ on Michigan. Ball State made it look easy enough on offense last year.

- Something I never thought of last week, but does D-1A still have that rule about only counting a win over a D-1AA opponent towards bowl eligibility once every four years? If so, Michigan still has that one in the bag for future use which is nice.

- I was really worried about how Michigan would replace Steve Breaston as punt returner this year. Fortunately, Michigan will not be returning many punts so that isn't as big of a concern as I had originally thought. Whew. Unfortunately, his talents as a kick returner are missed much more than I had anticipated.

Wanted: A Coach

2007-09-09T07:57:00.000-04:00

It is becoming painfully and plainly obvious that the only valuable part of the Michigan 2007 football season will be finding a new coach. Lloyd Carr was as good as retired after last year if he would've won either the Ohio State game or the Rose Bowl, but he kept sticking around wanting to go out a winner. It's now quite clear that he doesn't have the energy or know how to remain coach of a big time football program.

So where does this once powerful program look from here? Some have said it's the best job in the country, all the mystique and aura and helmets but without the "win a national title now or get fired" pressure at some other places like Alabama or Notre Dame. Maybe it's not #1, but it's easily in the top 5 or 10 regardless of who you ask. There will be some big names thrown about over the next few months and it's all but assured that Michigan will throw some big dollars towards this. So who are some of the names out there and what might be there level of interest?

Les Miles - the current coach of the #2 ranked LSU Tigers. Les is a 1976 graduate of the University of Michigan with a degree in Economics. He was a graduate assistant under Bo Schembechler in 1980 and 1981 and an assistant under Bo and Gary Moeller from 1987 to 1994. His wife was a former women's basketball assistant coach at Michigan. Since leaving Michigan he has been an assistant coach for the Dallas Cowboys and head coach of the Oklahoma State Cowboys before his current gig as the head coach of the Louisiana State Tigers. At OSU, he won some big games against rival Oklahoma but also managed to lose some games each year (4-5 per year). At LSU, he has had a pair of 2 loss seasons so far, but each included a blowout win in their bowl game (40-3 over Miami and 41-14 over Notre Dame). Yesterday, his team destroyed #9 Virginia Tech by a score of 48-7.

So what's the mutual interest? According to those that know Miles, he'd take the Michigan job in a heartbeat if the offer ever came and not even think twice. It's his dream job and he'd drop everything to return. The problem until now has been some tension with Lloyd Carr and company in regards to things like recruiting and ethics and other things nobody will really talk in detail about. It is working to Miles favor right now that Carr is going to have pretty much zero say in who gets to replace him with the way things are going. By the end of this year, he might have himself positioned as the favorite.

Rich Rodriguez - the current head coach of the #3 West Virginia Mountaineers. He has built the West Virginia team into a power, even if they are playing some lesser competition in the Big East with back to back top 10 finishes and another excellent team in 2007. He has no real ties to Michigan and just passed on the Alabama job to stay at West Virginia. I think he's a longshot for Michigan, but the name will get tossed out there.

Jeff Tedford - the current coach of the California Bears. He's a career west coast guy that has built some powerful offenses and good teams at the perennial cellar dwellar known as Cal, though he has struggled to have consistently great teams (sounds like he might fit here, right?). It is possible that he has taken Cal as far as it can go and might want to try his hand at a bigger program with more of a national reach to see what he can do. Bill Martin will love what he has done at an academic equal to Michigan and might be willing to give him a shot.

Greg Schiano - the current head coach of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Schiano is from New Jersey and has spent time at Rutgers, Penn State, Miami, and with the Chicago Bears in various coaching capacities. He's a defensive guy and was named national coach of the year last year for his dramatic turn around of the Rutgers program. His name is going to get brought up for every big job opening, but the Michigan AD might just be able to land him if they so desire. Michigan would offer him a major step up in the college football world and he already has spent a few years at Penn State and with the Chicago Bears so Big Ten country isn't foreign to him.

Kirk Ferentz - the current head coach of the Iowa Hawkeyes. Ferentz name was on the hotlist for all job openings a few years ago, but he has struggled a bit the last few years. Still, Michigan president Mary Sue Coleman knows him quite well from her days at Iowa and there will be some rumblings about Ferentz whenever Carr eventually "retires".

Brian Kelly - the current head coach of the Cincinnati Bearcats. Kelly is no stranger to the state of Michigan having been a dominant force at Division 2 Grand Valley State going 41-2 over his final 3 seasons including a pair of national championships. Then he moved up to Central Michigan and lead the Chippewas to a MAC title. Kelly has a reputation for being an offensive genius and I don't think he would think twice before leaving for Michigan if he got a job offer. There are a few off the field issues with him, however, and I'm not sure how serious of a candidate he would be. I mean a few years at CMU and Cincinnati as your total of D1 experience might not be enough to get the Michigan job.

Mike Trgovac - the current defensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers. Trgovac played and coached under Bo Schembechler for Michigan. He then spent time at Ball State, Navy, Colorado State, and Notre Dame (under Lou Holtz) before heading to the NFL. In the NFL, he has served as defensive line coach in Philadelphia, Green Bay, Washington, and Carolina before being elevated to defensive coordinator of Carolina in 2003. The Panthers have routinely been in the top 10 in most defensive categories since Trgovac took over as defensive coordinator. The two big questions with Trgovac are would he want to go back to college and would Michigan want a guy with no head coaching experience? Hard to say, but his name is definitely going to be thrown into the ring.

Cam Cameron - the current head coach of the Miami Dolphins. Cam was an assistant under Bo Schembechler and Gary Moeller from 1984 to 1993 in Ann Arbor before becoming head coach at Indiana where he struggled to an 18-37 record. Since then he has been offensive coordinator for the San Diego Chargers before signing a 4 year deal with Miami this past offseason. The Dolphins just lost one head coach to the college ranks (Saban at Alabama) so it would be just plain not funny for a Dolphin's fan if Saban's replacement left for college as well. Cameron definitely has strong ties to Ann Arbor, however he just signed a 4 year deal with the Dolphins and I'm not sure he'd back out on it so soon.

I'm sure there are a few other names out there that I'm forgetting, but those are most of the big ones that will be talked about. One thing that is for sure is that with the rapid demise of the team, current assistants will have no shot at the head job so that means no more worrying about DeBord taking over for Lloyd. The more I look at everything surrounding the situation, the more I have to think that Miles is the favorite. Then it becomes a question of timing. Lloyd has been within inches of retiring in the past and you know he is trying to figure out an "exit strategy" right now. He has some health concerns and it is conceivable that he could retire any day. I know he wants to finish out the season, but if the team falls apart on him that might not be possible.

First Team to 40 Points Wins

2007-09-08T08:14:00.000-04:00

Well, I'm not sure what to expect in the Michigan-Oregon game today in terms of picking a winner. I know Michigan is still a sizeable favorite, but after last week you can't be too sure of anything. What I do know is that there should be a ton of points scored by both teams. I mean Michigan couldn't stop a D-1AA team from scoring 30+ points, so why would you expect them to stop a good offense from the Pac Ten? On the other hand, Oregon has a bad defense and Michigan still has a good offense (particularly if Chad Henne and the WRs get their timing back).

I'm going to guess the score will end up somewhere in the 42-38 range with big plays galore. Should be fun to watch and hopefully the Wolverines find a way to avoid their 4th straight loss.

I'm feeling a little better after my week of vacation. It was nice not being around anybody I knew and leaving the phone off and just forgetting that the Appalachian State game even happened. Unfortunately I'm now back and they better not lose again or this week I will never hear the end of it.

10 years, $40 million

2007-09-03T09:39:00.000-04:00

That's what Charlie Weis signed for a contract extension after one year on the job. After seeing what happened to Notre Dame against Georgia Tech on Saturday, I've got another holiday weekend post in me.

Nearly two years ago, I made what I thought was a meaningless little comparison between Charlie Weis and Ty Willingham after one season of play and found it a little odd that Charlie got a mega contract when his inaugural season was very similar to that of recently fired Ty Willingham. Turns out it got linked on CNNSI's On Campus and I got deluged with angry emails from Notre Dame fans. Well, here we sit in year 3 of the Charlie Weis regime and I'm still smirking just a little bit. How about another comparison?

Through 26 games, Weis vs Willingham:

Overall record: 19-7 vs 15-11 (edge Charlie)
# of 20+ point losses: 4 vs 6
record vs teams in final AP top 25: 1-5 vs 4-7

Gotta give a slight edge to Charlie on overall record and fewer blowout losses, however Ty faced tougher competition. Now one of these coaches was on the verge of getting fired and the other has what amounts to a near lifetime contract. What's the difference between the two? Willingham went 6-4 the rest of the way in 2004 to finish his ND career with a record of 21-15 including a 6-9 mark against teams ranked at the end of the season. Charlie has 7 consecutive losable games coming up and ND starting 2-6 on the season is not an unreasonable expectation (@PSU, @Michigan, MSU, @Purdue, @UCLA, Boston College, Southern Cal).

Is the Notre Dame administration sweating even a little on this one? Should they be?

Wow, that sure was fun

2007-09-02T11:39:00.000-04:00

What's there to say after witnessing history? Nothing? A million things? Somewhere in between? Part of me could talk for hours about what went wrong and why it did. Part of me says who cares, it did. I can't believe I rearranged my travel plans to arrive in time to get to a sports bar to watch that debacle. I should've just got drunk at the beach and not believed anybody when they told me the score. Some random musings on what I watched before I get back to barbecuing on the beach...

This probably goes down as the biggest upset in the history of college football. Now it's not the biggest in terms of point spreads and it's not the biggest in terms of talent differential, because ASU is better than more than a few D1A teams. But in terms of perception? D1AA vs a team ranked #5 in the nation? Doesn't get any bigger than that.
The only moment I can think of right now since I've been following Michigan football that even comes close to describing the overall shock is Kordell Stewart to Michael Westbrook in 1994. That game isn't there, but the improbability of the moment is similar. That instant that Westbrook caught it is still burned into my memory banks and I'm sure this entire game will be as well.
I'm happy for the Appalachian State players and coaches and fans. They have a nice program that not many people knew about playing in rural western North Carolina. I'm guessing they will get a little more recognition from now on. Oh, and they can kiss any chance of ever playing a top opponent again goodbye.
I love rooting for the big underdogs to shock the world, unfortunately it was against my team this team. Oh well.
Michigan may have done the virtually impossible for 2007. Almost regardless of what happens the rest of the year, the single lasting moment from this edition of the Michigan Wolverines will be the loss to Appalachian State. They could rip off 12 straight wins including a bowl game, and people will still mostly remember this game. That's sad and unfortunate for a team that had big goals at the start of the year. Hell, this game might be the single biggest story of the entire 2007 college football season aside from whoever wins the national championship. It will be the year that X won the title and that Appalachian State beat Michigan. Does this put up more pressure for a playoff? I don't know.
You can't pin this loss on Lloyd Carr or Ron English or Mike DeBord or Vance Bedford or Andy Moeller or Chad Henne or whoever else you want to. It was a team effort. There are probably 150 people that can all take some blame for this one. It was the absolute perfect storm of things going wrong against a team that played the game of their lives.

Some specific points about the team and/or game:

1) It is beyond obvious that they overlooked Appalachian State. ASU spent the entire offseason watching Michigan's gametapes and coming up with a way to exploit a few weaknesses and figuring out a way to try to take away a few strengths. Michigan apparently didn't even bother to put in a specific game plan for this one and instead just wanted to run some base stuff and keep people healthy and get ready for Oregon. Well, I hope they got ready for Oregon.

2) At what point is Michigan going to a) recognize that their LBs and Safeties cannot cover wide receivers in space and b) do something about it. This is the 3rd consecutive game they have lost and in all 3 games I think you can pin most of the blame on the defense not putting guys in a position to succeed. Last year, Ball State got some points by spreading Michigan out and picking on the LBs and safeties in coverage. Then Ohio State scored at will with 4 and 5 WR sets that Michigan couldn't match up with. Then in the Rose Bowl USC got stuffed for the entire first half before changing gears at halftime and spreading Michigan out and moving the ball at will. Now call me crazy, but I suspected that the coaching staff would've worked at improving their ability to defend the spread formation this year. In this game, it sure didn't look like it. They ended up in the exact same situations as last year with the exact same results watching WRs get matched up 1 on 1 with safeties and LBs and making the defense look clueless. I'll give you one guess what the Oregon Ducks are going to do next week on offense and a hint that running up the middle from a 2 back set isn't it.

3) Why on earth did Chad Henne and his WRs look a step off on their timing for nearly the entire game. A 4th year senior and some junior wide receivers couldn't get on the same page in the first game? Haven't they been practicing for weeks? This would be excusable if it was a bunch of new starters, however all these guys have shown that they are much better than the way they executed yesterday.

4) When is Michigan going to learn how to pick up blitzes. Pete Carroll has owned their OL in the last 2 Rose Bowl matchups by bringing blitzes that they had never seen and making them look clueless. Appalachian State yesterday took a much inferior group of talent compared to USC and employed some of the same schemes and still got decent pressure on Henne. Sure, there are some new starters on the offensive line this year, but come on. That's no excuse. This has to fall back on OL coaching when it's the same thing year after year.

5) Is there any question that Mike Hart is the MVP of the team? Yesterday he racked up 188 yards and 3 TDs on only 23 carries. So what, it was Appalachian State. But did you notice that when he sat out almost the entire 2nd quarter and the first 10 minutes of the 3rd quarter with an injured leg that Appalachian State outscored Michigan 24-6? Michigan outscored them 26-10 with Hart on the field and got blown off the field when he was out.

6) Game management. Who's bright idea was it to go for 2 with a ton of time left and trailing 31-26? Everybody and their brother knows you kick the XP to make it a 4 point game with an entire quarter to play. Instead, Michigan went 0-2 on 2 point conversions down the stretch and lost by 2 points. Way to go.

7) 2 field goals blocked in the final 2 minutes of the game? Yeah, that hurts in a 2 point loss. The blame for the blocked kick at the end of the game falls squarely on Shawn Crable. He was the wide blocker on the left side on a kick from the right hash. There were 2 players coming at him and he blocked the outside man allowing the inside guy to go untouched and block the winning field goal. I'm not sure what exactly he was thinking, but you absolutely positively have to block the inside guy and force the outside guy to take the long route to go for it.

8) Stupid bumbling mistakes that always happen in the first game: late hit out of bounds, mishandling some kick returns, etc. You have to expect those in the first game of the year, but they don't help matters in a tight game.

9) Expectations - I guarantee you that every single person in that stadium outside the Appalachian State lockerroom expected Michigan to win yesterday. Every one, apparently including the Michigan coaches and players. That's not right. Heck, my expectations are as guilty as anybody (however I'm not responsible for lining up and playing). If you listed all 12 games and ranked them from the one you most want to win this year on down to the one you least care about winning, Appalachian State is probably at the very bottom of the list. I mean they just don't matter to Michigan. You want to beat Ohio State. You want to beat Notre Dame. You want to beat Michigan State. You want to beat Wisconsin. etc. Nobody had the season opener circled for anything other than a nice day to watch Michigan win a game. Well, the next 3 games will tell us a lot about a team that "expected" to have a big season. They've got Oregon and Notre Dame and Penn State all in a row and all 3 are pretty much a must win at this point.

I'm sure I'll come up with some more stuff later, but I'm still shocked at what happened as is most of the college football world. What does this mean for the rest of Michigan's season? That's actually a pretty tough call at this point. It might mean nothing. Maybe it was just a perfect storm of things going wrong for one team and things going right for the other. Maybe Michigan is closer to 2005 than 2006. Maybe it's a wake up call and they blow Oregon off the field next week. Anybody that claims to know at this point is just flat out lying. I'm still pretty confident that Michigan's defense will be just fine against teams that line up in a traditional set with 2 WRs and a TE. I'm also still pretty confident that Michigan's defense will not fair well against a spread formation. We'll see how that plays out in the next few weeks.

I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention that it's a little unfortunate this will go on Lloyd Carr's resume. He's one of the truly nice guys in college football and this is likely his final season and it's sad that he'll be remembered for this when he has done so many good things for the University. Here's just a teeny guess: Jeff Tedford is going to get a big $$$$ offer in January to be the next Michigan coach. Bill Martin has very few qualms about conducting a national search for a head coach (see the hires for men's hoops (x 2), swimming, baseball, tennis, etc as evidence of that).

And hey, look at the bright side. Michigan still has a very good chance at becoming the first school in college football history to lose 4 Rose Bowls in 5 years. Ohio State came the closest losing 4 times in 6 years from 1971-1976 and Cal and Michigan both have had 3 straight losses before. History in the making...

P.S. anybody else see a little cosmic karma for finally scheduling a game against D1AA competition for the first time ever? Yeah, lots not do that again.

Let the Games Begin

2007-08-30T08:27:00.000-04:00

The greatest time of the year is once again here as football Saturdays are about to begin. So Michigan is playing D-1AA Appalachian State this year from my neck of the woods. They are a great team for their level, but it should still be an easy win for the Wolverines.

The Mountaineers' coach had an interesting quote today in the Asheville newspaper: "We know Michigan is a great team, but we’re not treating them any different than if we were going to Furman or Georgia Southern,” said Moore. “I like the challenge of it. We don’t plan to take guys up there who won’t compete.”

Really? No different?

According to another article it's a $400,000 pay day for the small school and a nice chance for them to be on TV (insert Big Ten Network joke here).

The Detroit Free Press chimes in with a phenomenal article on Michigan Mike Hart and what has helped shape him into the man he is today.

I'm too lazy to do a detailed preview for Appalachian State, but I can't see this being closer than 21 points with plenty of garbage time.

Records

2007-08-20T14:15:00.000-04:00

It's a horrible cliche, but they certainly are made to be broken. Last year guys like Leon Hall and LaMarr Woodley made runs at longstanding Michigan football records. In 2007, more records will be broken. Here's a look at some of the big ones with range of current Michigan players.

Career Rushing Attempts - 924 by Anthony Thomas

Mike Hart currently has 750 career rushing attempts including 600 in his 2 healthy seasons. He is only 174 attempts behind Thomas at this point and figures to be a lock to break the record if he can stay healthy.

Career Rushing Yards - 4,472 by Anthony Thomas

Much like the attempts record, Mike Hart is zooming right in on the record for career rushing yards also held by Anthony Thomas. With over 3,000 yards in his 2 healthy seasons, Hart once again figures to be a lock for this record if he can stay healthy needing only 793 yards to tie the A-Train.

Career Rushing Touchdowns - 55 by Anthony Thomas

This record belonging to Anthony Thomas figures to be a little safer from Mike Hart. Hart only has 27 career rushing TDs entering his senior season. He can, however, make a strong push for #3 on the all time list which is currently held by Chris Perry at 39 while #2 belongs to Tyrone Wheatley at 47.

Most Career 100 Yard Rushing Games - 22 by Anthony Thomas

Mike Hart currently has 19 career 100 yard rushing efforts and only needs 3 more to tie the record. This should be a gimmie if he stays healthy.

Most Career 150 Yard Rushing Games - 9 by Anthony Thomas

Another record of the A-Train that is likely going down as Mike Hart already has 8 career 150 yard rushing games.

Most Career Pass Attempts - 1,366 by John Navarre

Chad Henne currently has 1,109 career pass attempts and only needs another 257 for the all time record. If he stays healthy, the record is his.

Most Career Pass Completions - 765 by John Navarre

Chad Henne currently has 666 career completions and only needs 99 for the all time record. Another gimmie if he stays healthy.

Most Career Passing Yards - 9,254 by John Navarre

Chad Henne currently has 7,777 passing yards and sits a mere 1,477 for the all time record. Should be a gimmie if he stays healthy.

Career Completion Percentage - 64.3% by Todd Collins

This record is a little farther out of Chad Henne's reach. He currently has a career completion percentage of 60.1%. Assuming 300 pass attempts on the season, he would need to complete about 240 for the all time career record. If he happened to throw the ball 400 times this year, he'd need to complete 304. I can't see it happening, although he could conceivably make a run at Elvis Grbac with 62.5% for #2 all time.

Most Career Touchdown Passes - 72 by John Navarre

This is the record most likely to be broken in Game 1 because Chad Henne already has 70 career TD passes including three of the five highest single season totals in team history.

Career Total Offense - 8,995 yards by John Navarre

Chad Henne currently has 7,582 career yards of total offense and only needs 1,413 to pass Navarre. It should be easy if he stays healthy.

Career Yards From Scrimmage - 5,273 by Anthony Thomas

Mike Hart currently has 4,213 career yards from scrimmage which places him only 1,060 behind Anthony Thomas. Like many of these other records, if he is healthy the record is his.

Career All Purpose Yards - 6,201 by Jamie Morris

Mike Hart doesn't have the kick return yardage of any of the players ahead of him on the career list, but he's already at 4,213 all purpose yards which puts him 1,988 behind Morris. This one really requires a big year by Hart, but it isn't out of the question. He's much more likely, however, to end up at #2 or #3 on the career list.

2007 Michigan Preview: The Schedule

2007-08-20T08:53:00.000-04:00

So much goes into determining how many games a team will win or lose in any given year, but it seems to me that many people forget to look at the schedule they will face. Scheduling certainly isn't forgotten at the end of the year, however, when people try to analyze bowl matchups based on who played who.

Unlike 2006 where Michigan had road trips to Columbus, South Bend, and Happy Valley, the 2007 Michigan Wolverines will have a lot of home cooking against their top opponents. This should help a young defense establish a rhythm. Game by game...

APPALACHIAN STATE - In 2006, App State went 12-1 and won the "formerly known as D-1AA" Championship Subdivision National Title. They gave a bad NC State team a slight scare in Raleigh before falling 23-10. This year, they get to serve as roadkill for Michigan's home opener. It can be a little hard to peg just how good the Mountaineers are. For one thing, they are the best of the best in D-1AA. But really, that's just like being the tallest midget if you ask me. Expect Michigan to win handily just like if they were playing a directional school from the MAC.

Michigan's chances of winning? 98%

OREGON - In 2006, the Ducks lost their last 4 games of the season to finish 7-6. They have playmakers on offense including TB Jonathan Stewart and QB Dennis Dixon and WR Jaison Williams. On defense, however, they might have trouble stopping Michigan's potent ground game as they ranked 78th nationally in rushing defense in 2006. If you are so inclined, you can also tune in to see former all everything recruit Cam Colvin who is still just a reserve WR for the Ducks. This might turn into a high scoring affair, but Michigan is the more well rounded team and playing at home.

Michigan's chances of winning? 80%

NOTRE DAME - The Fighting Irish had an interesting season in 2006. They played three top 10 opponents and got blown off the field in dominant fashion by all three of them (LSU, USC, Michigan) surrendering 41+ points to each. They were, however, able to win every other game on the schedule. In 2007, they lose most of their great offense and will be replacing their QB, RB, WRs, and some of the OL amongst others. It's hard to know what to expect in this game. Notre Dame and Michigan usually play tight games and you know they will be trying to get some revenge for the ass kicking last year. However, Michigan has a better offense and a more talented defense and is playing at home. You cannot expect Notre Dame to win this game.

Michigan's chances of winning? 85%

PENN STATE - The Nittany Lions were decent in 2006 and quite similar to Notre Dame. They played four good teams in the regular season and were beaten by all four and won the rest of their games before ekeing out a win over Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl. This year, however, they replace a some of their best players from last year including Tony Hunt and Paul Pozluszny and they are still straddled with Anthony Morelli at the helm. It's hard to believe he's already a senior having accomplished so little thus far in his career, but this is his last go 'round the conference. The last time Michigan lost to Penn State as 1996 and that was a very long time ago. You know the streak will end at some point, but not this year.

Michigan's chances of winning? 85%

@ Northwestern - In 2006, Northwestern finished 4-8 on the season with only conference wins over Iowa and Illinois. They return the talented TB Tyrell Sutton, but honestly there isn't much talent in Evanston. Michigan traditionally has a nice group of Chicago alums show up to support the team against Northwestern and their is little reason to expect a loss this year.

Michigan's chances of winning? 93%

EASTERN MICHIGAN - The Eagles were brutal in 2006, finishing 1-11 on the season. The Battle of Washtenaw County will once again be a lopsided affair in 2007 with loads of garbage time. The timing of this game is kind of nice after the tough three game stretch with Oregon, Notre Dame, and Penn State as it should allow some key players to rest up and be healthy for the rest of the schedule.

Michigan's chances of winning? 99%

PURDUE - The Boilermakers return to the schedule after 2 years off and fresh off an up and down 8-6 season. They have a dangerous offense with QB Curtis Painter passing to some very talented WRs including Dorien Bryant and Selwyn Lymon (who could give Manningham and Arrington a battle for best duo in the conference). On defense, however, there is a lot of work to be done for a unit that ranked 114th nationally in rushing defense in 2006.

Michigan's chances of winning? 90%

@ Illinois - The Fighting Illini only went 2-10 last year, however they did give a scare to both Wisconsin and Ohio State. This will be Ron Zook's 2nd year at the helm and Juice Williams will now be a sophomore at QB. With the supremely talented Arrelious Benn arriving at WR and Rashard Mendenhall at TB there is lots of talent on offense. J Leman leads the defense from MLB, but there isn't much talent around him. So while the Illini offense could give Michigan fits for a while, their D has little chance at slowing down the Michigan attack.

Michigan's chances of winning? 90%

MINNESOTA - The Gophers had another mediocre 2006 finishing 6-7 and finally firing Glen Mason. It's hard to know what to expect from first year HC Tim Brewster, but he does have a little talent to work with. TB Amir Pinnix and WR Ernie Wheelwright both have big play ability. It's hard to expect much out of the Gophers in 2007, though, and the Battle for the Little Brown Jug figures to be one sided.

Michigan's chances of winning? 95%

@ Michigan State - Much like the Gophers, the Spartans stunk in 2006 and fired their coach. It's a shame, really, because John L Smith had such wonderful press conferences. It was always fun to watch him slap himself. And if that wasn't amusing enough you could just watch his team implode every week. I'm sure Mark D'Antonio will be a good coach. It's always a little tough in the first year, however, to completely change the style of play of a team. He wants a more disciplined team that runs a 2 back set and a more traditional offense. With MSU's personnel, that is going to take a little time to get going. Don't expect too much out of the Spartans in 2007.

Michigan's chances of winning? 90%

@ Wisconsin - Now we move on to the super tough portion of the schedule. Wisconsin went 12-1 a season ago and finished in the top 5. Michigan was fortunate enough to hand them their only loss on the season. In 2007, the Badgers replace their leader John Stocco which will be a big loss. However, they do return most of their starters on offense and defense and will surely provide a big test. With a new QB and less than perfect WRs it remains to be seen how well they can test Michigan's biggest weakness in the secondary. TE Travis Beckum is perhaps the best in the land and will be a tough matchup. On defense, Wisconsin will have their hands full with a pair of new safeties matched up against a 4th year senior QB looking to pick them apart with talented weapons all around.

Michigan's chances of winning? 55%

OHIO STATE - The Buckeyes rolled to a 12-0 regular season and the undisputed #1 ranking in all the land before getting steamrolled by a fired up Florida team in the BCS title game. Now they face life without Troy Smith and Tedd Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez and Antonio Pittman and Quinn Pitcock amongst others. Their offense figures to be much more ground oriented in 2007 with Chris Wells leading the way. Defensively, the lose a little off the DL but return most everybody else and should be very good. Tressel will look to get back to teh formula that worked so well for him in 2004 with defense and special teams leading the way. Fortunately for Michigan, they moved the ball up and down the field in Columbus against this same defense and should be able to do the same at home with the same players in 2007. The defense, however, is probably thanking their lucky stars that Wolverine-killer Troy Smith is finally gone.

Michigan's chances of winning? 65%

So what does that look like for the entire season? It comes out to about a 12.9% chance of going undefeated in the regular season. That's a pretty good chance compared to recent seasons, at least in my book. It also works out to an average record of approximately 10.25-1.75, so somewhere around 10-2 or 11-1 looks to be the most likely record. It helps to have a senior QB and it helps to have most of your tough games at home. I'd classify Oregon, Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State as Michigan's toughest opponents on the season and they get four of the five in Ann Arbor.

2007 Michigan Preview: The Defense

2007-08-13T07:00:00.000-04:00

My, oh my, what a turnaround the Michigan defense made in 2006. They were lambasted in 2005 after allowing multiple late scoring drives to lose close games. In 2006, they became the best unit in the country the first 11 games of the year before struggling mightily against the spread formations of Ohio State and Southern Cal. The rushing defense was particularly special allowing only 1.9 yards per carry and 5 TDs for the entire 13 game season and was the best rushing defense in the NCAA in decades at only 43 yards per game allowed. David Harris, LaMarr Woodley, Alan Branch, and Leon Hall all headed off to the NFL and Rondell Biggs graduated as well. That's a lot of talent to lose from one side of the ball. On the plus side, however, a lot of talent returns.

Defensive Line

Tim Jamison, DE (RS Junior)

Contributed 13 tackles and 5 sacks as a part timer in 2006 when he split PT with Rondell Biggs. He's not a big guy on the end, but has a phenomenal first step and great instincts rushing the passer. His biggest weakness would seem to be holding up at the point of attack at only 266 pounds, but he has shown a knack for shedding blockers and making plays. I expect big things out of him in 2007.

Terrance Taylor, NT (Junior)

Terrance was the fireplug in the middle of the nation's best rushing defense last year. He contributed 23 tackles, 5 TFL, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery. A former state heavyweight wrestling and powerlifting champion, he is nearly impossible to move from the point of attack and requires a double team on every rushing play. Look for more notice this year as he steps out from behind the shadow of Alan Branch and becomes the best nose tackle in the Big Ten.

Will Johnson, DT (RS Junior)

Will Johnson spelled relief for Alan Branch and Terrance Taylor last year seeing action in all 13 games and contributing 7.5 tackles and 2.5 TFL and 1 sack. He has good size and strength and will help form one of the better duos in the middle with Terrance Taylor.

Brandon Graham, DE (Sophomore)

Brandon Graham was last seen making waves as a true freshman earning PT on the best DL in the country. He was a LB in HS and has a motor that won't quit. Finishing with 3 tackles, 1 FF, and 0.5 sacks as a frosh he'll be looking to make waves replacing LaMarr Woodley in 2007. With his combination of speed and strength, few OTs in the country will be able to handle him one on one and the only thing standing between him and greatness is experience.

Other players in the mix for PT along the defensive line include Marques Slocum (RS Freshman), Adam Patterson (Sophomore), Greg Banks (RS Freshman), Jason Kates (RS Freshman), John Ferrera (RS Freshman), and Ryan Van Bergen (Freshman).

Linebackers

Shawn Crable, OLB (RS Senior)

2nd team All Big Ten in 2006, he was a terror making plays all over the field finishing with 37 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 3 PBUs, 2 FFs, and 1 FR. He's tall at 6'5" with long arms and great speed off the edge and is a great blitzer. He'll have more freedom to make plays in 2007 and I suspect Ron English will move him all around the field to confuse the offense.

Chris Graham, OLB (Senior)

Graham has good wheels and hits like a mack truck, but has had trouble consistently making plays thus far in his career. If he can read the flow of the play better this year, he could be a very good OLB in 2007. He started 4 games in 2006 and made 25 tackles and 1 TFL. This year, he'll be fighting for PT and might be in danger of losing the starting spot if he doesn't produce.

John Thompson, MLB (RS Junior)

The man with first crack at replacing the outstanding play of departed David Harris is likely to be John Thompson. His legacy at Michigan thus far has basically consisted of one legendary 8 tackle, 3 TFL performance in 2005 in an overtime victory in Iowa City. He's isn't an outstanding physical talent, but he does have good instincts. He will be pushed hard by Juco transfer Austin Panter.

Other candidates for serious PT at linebacker include Austin Panter (Junior), Jonas Mouton (RS Freshman), Brandon Logan (Junior), and Obi Ezeh (RS Freshman).

Defensive Backs

Morgan Trent, CB (RS Junior)

Trent is a returning starter at CB in 2007, although he is probably best remembered for getting beaten repeatedly by Ohio State and USC in the final 2 games struggling mightily against Dwayne Jarrett. This year, he can't hide behind Leon Hall and will be tested to make plays and prove his worth over the entire schedule. He's got the blazing speed and good size to allow him to match up with anybody. What he needs to work on is his reads and footwork. I expect a solid season out of Trent this year, although he will not quite be an all conference caliber performer.

Jamar Adams, Strong Safety (Senior)

A returning 2nd team all conference performer in 2006, Adams will be counted on to lead the secondary in 2007. He racked up 47 tackles, 1 INT, 7 PBUs, 1 sack, and 1 FF on the season. He's got good size and is better against the run than playing deep in coverage.

Steve Brown, Free Safety (Sophomore)

Brown was a special teams whiz as a true freshman making plays all over the place and racking up 14 tackles on the season. He's got good size and speed and it will be up to him to prove he can make plays on the ball in the air as the deep man in Michigan's cover scheme.

Johnny Sears, CB (RS Sophomore)

He's big and fast and oozing with potential, but thus far hasn't done much at Michigan. Now there is a starting spot wide open and Johnny Sears has to figure as the favorite to grab it, or at least until super freshman Donovan Warren makes his name known nationally. Hopefully this season he will make himself known more for his play on the field than for his resemblance to Lil Jon off the field.

Other kids in the mix for PT in the secondary include Donovan Warren (Freshman), Charles Stewart (RS Junior), Anton Campbell (RS Senior), Brandon Harrison (Junior), Michael Williams (Freshman), Artis Chambers (Freshman), and Doug Dutch(RS Junior).

All in all, it's an interesting unit. There are some stars (Crable, Taylor, etc) and some major question marks (CBs and a few LBs). If Ron English is going to live up to his billing as one of the best DCs in the country, I expect him to do good things with this group. They might not be a top 10 defense nationally again, but I expect they can be top 30 or 40. If they can find a way to hold opponents to 20 points or less, Michigan will have a very good shot at winning each and every game.

Cameron Maybin

2007-08-11T22:28:00.000-04:00

I've been a little slowed down by some side projects the last few weeks, but I have noticed that Cameron Maybin got the callup to AA Erie this week. And my, oh my, what a debut. In his first 2 games, he is 2/6 with 2 HRs and 2 walks against 2 strikeouts and 4 runs scored and 2 RBI.

I'm guessing he starts next season at Erie and if he tears it up, he'll likely be up to Toledo soon thereafter while knocking on the door in Detroit. Not bad for a kid that just turned 20 a few months ago. I'll return to some Michigan blogging this week if time allows.

2007 Michigan Preview: The Offense

2007-07-31T09:07:00.000-04:00

Let's just get this out of the way real early: Michigan's offense is going to be DYN-O-MITE in 2007. I can't remember the last time they had an offense this talented, maybe the 2000 season with Anthony Thomas and Drew Henson and David Terrell and co.?

Quarterbacks

Chad Henne (Senior)

Career stats: 666/1109, 60.1%, 7777 yards, 70 TDs, 28 INTs

What's left to say about the kid that will own virtually every Michigan passing record in the books? He's a 4th year starter, a natural leader, and has a cannon for an arm. The only thing left in his sights is beating Ohio State and winning a bowl game. Look for him to have another big season in 2007 because he is surrounded by the most talent he has ever had at Michigan.

Ryan Mallett (Freshman)

The first QB recruit to ever enroll early at Michigan, this kid has all the talent in the world. If something happens to Henne, he is first in line at the backup spot but that would be asking a lot from a true freshman. Then again, Henne himself lead Michigan to the Rose Bowl as a true freshman starter and he wasn't as talented as this kid. 6'7" with a cannon arm and deceptive mobility, he could be a star some day.

David Cone (RS Freshman)

This kid fits every stereotype you can think of for a Michigan QB. He's tall (6'6"), slow a foot, and has a strong arm. Not highly touted coming out of high school in Georgia, he redshirted last year learning the system and will battle Ryan Mallett for the backup job this fall.

Tailbacks

Mike Hart (Senior)

Career stats: 750 carries, 3679 yards, 27 rushing TDs, 59 receptions, 516 yards, 2 receiving TDs

Michigan Mike Hart is the heart and soul of Michigan's team. He bleeds maize and blue and is the most outspoken person you will find on the team. Nobody is more able or willing to put the entire team on their back and carry them in crunch time. He's on pace to be Michigan's all time leading rusher, breaking Anthony Thomas' record of 4.472 yards. He also has a chance to join Jamie Morris and Anthony Thomas with 6000 career all purpose yards. Despite his small stature, Hart is a strong inside runner that rarely turns the ball over. He lacks blazing speed, but can crank out 5 and 10 yard runs all day long to keep the chains moving.

Brandon Minor (Sophomore)

Career stats: 42 carries, 238 yards, 2 TDs, 1 reception, 9 yards

Brandon Minor showed up last year and was about 4th or 5th on the depth chart behind guys like Mike Hart, Kevin Grady, and Carlos Brown. In the end, he ended up 2nd on the team in rushing behind Hart. Minor was a bit of an unknown coming out of high school in Richmond, Virginia. When he showed up on campus, however, his combination of size (210 lbs), breakaway speed, and rushing instincts were apparent. A homerun hitter in the backfield, he had a pair of 40 yard carries last year. With Kevin Grady sidelined with a torn ACL, Minor has the backup spot all to himself this year and will be looking to make big things happen.

Carlos Brown (Sophomore)

Career stats: 16 carries, 44 yards, 0 TDs

Carlos was a highly touted speed back out of South Carolina who chose to come north and play Big Ten football for Michigan. Unfortunately he ended up buried on the depth chart last year and bounced around between CB and TB during spring practice. He's back full time at TB for now and is looking to get some more action in 2007.

Wide Receivers

Mario Manningham (Junior)

Career stats: 65 receptions, 1136 yards, 15 TDs

Super Mario made an impact as a true freshman with 100 yards against Wisconsin and 2 TDs in the comeback win against Penn State, but he didn't even begin to make his mark until his 2006 sophomore campaign. After not seeing much action in 2 warmups to start the year, he exploded in the next 3 games against Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Minnesota with 381 yards and 6 TDs. His season would get derailed with a shoulder injury, but not before firmly stamping his place amongst the favorites for the Biletnikoff in 2007. He isn't the tallest WR in the country (only 6'0") and he isn't a track star, but he might be the best at keeping his speed in and out of breaks which makes him nearly uncoverable on deep routes. His double moves are ankle breaking and he frequently makes great corners look bad.

Adrian Arrington (RS Junior)

Career stats: 42 receptions, 556 yards, 8 TDs

Adrian has battled everything from homesickness to injuries to off the field problems in Ann Arbor, but he's a dangerous receiving threat that perfectly complements Manningham and helps form one of the most dangerous duos in the country. He's a big target in the Marquise Walker mold that knows how to use his body to get open and has very good hands. He really stepped up against Iowa and Penn State last year with Manningham out and came up with 13 catches for 162 yards. Expect big things this year from Arrington as opponents focus their coverage on Manningham leaving him to pick on lesser DBs, much to Chad Henne's delight.

Greg Mathews (Sophomore)

Career stats: 7 receptions, 68 yards, 0 TDs

Those aren't big numbers for Mathews, but as a true freshman and the #4 receiver last year they are exactly in line with what former Michigan greats have done in their debut seasons. Mathews is big and very strong and has great hands. Already a great blocker, he'll get plenty of throws his way as he slides into Steve Breaston's spot as the #3 WR.

Some candidates for the #4 WR spot include true freshman Junior Hemingway, Zion Babb, and Toney Clemons, along with redshirt freshman LaTerryal Savoy. Nobody knows who will win that competition, but rest assured that they will be very talented and have beaten out some other great players.

Tight Ends

Mike Massey (RS Junior)

Career stats: 16 receptions, 123 yards, 2 TDs

The younger brother of Pat, Mike is going to be thrust into the starting gig this year after the losses of Tyler Ecker to graduation and Carson Butler to stupidity. He's a good blocker and has good hands, but needs to work on being more consistent with his route running.

Chris McLaurin (RS Sophomore)

McLaurin has not played any TE for Michigan yet, but he's an interesting prospect with good size and speed. He'll be firmly in the running for the backup TE spot this year.

Carson Butler (RS Sophomore)

Career stats: 19 receptions, 166 yards, 1 TD

Butler's status on the team is still being worked out. He was thrown off the team this past offseason after an altercation with a fellow student and the filing of assault charges. Well, charges against Butler will ultimately dropped and he's trying to beg his way back on to the team. That status has yet to be determined. What doesn't have to be determined is his talent level. He's a phenomenal athlete who could be an NFL TE someday if he caught the ball more consistently. I have no idea if he will be back on the team at any point this year.

Offensive Line

We'll just tackle this as one group. Why? Offensive lineman never get any recognition anyway. Here are some of the guys in contention for major playing time:

Jake Long (RS Senior)
Alex Mitchell (RS Junior)
Adam Kraus (RS Senior)
Justin Boren (Sophomore)
Stephen Schilling (RS Freshman)
Mark Ortmann (RS Sophomore)
Corey Zirbel (RS Sophomore)
Jeremy Ciulla (RS Junior)
David Moosman (RS Sophomore)

The starters at this point figure to be Long at LT, Schilling at RT, Kraus and Mitchell at guard, and Boren at C. Jake Long is as good as they get on the college level. He would've been a likely top 10 pick if he came out last year. Now? Look out award shows and All American lists, because he's coming to collect some hardware. The rest of the line isn't quite as dominant, but the potential is there. Take a look at that list again. Aside from the fact that there are only 2 seniors on it, you might also notice the lack of a redshirt next to Justin Boren's name. In 2006, he became only the 4th true freshman OL in modern times to start for Michigan joining Bubba Paris, Tom Dixon, and Dean Dingman.

As for the line as a whole, run blocking figures to be their strength. Schilling and Long and Boren are all quite capable of pushing people around. In pass protection, the youngsters might make some slips but Long will have Henne's blindside on lockdown. All in all it's a very good line that should dominate the LOS in most games.

Synopsis

What's not to like? Michigan's got the offensive line, the quarterback, the tailback, and the wide receivers to match up with any defense they play. USC is probably the only team in the country with as much talent on the offensive side of the ball. Michigan does, however, have a reputation for being pretty conservative with the playcalling and not going for the jugular when they get a lead, instead being content to sit on the ball and grind out the clock. With some question marks on defense, the 2007 Michigan offense might feel pressure to air it out and put points on the board every week. If so, look out. They've got the talent to win some shootouts. I figure somewhere around 32-33 points per game on the season is well within reach.

It's Almost Football Time

2007-07-30T10:37:00.001-04:00

Blogging offseason is going to be winding to a close sometime soon as the joy and majesty that is college football is about to return in a few short weeks. Recruiting news just doesn't do much for me, so you'll have to get your Sam McGuffie fix elsewhere. I'll try to get some previews of the 2007 Michigan Offense and Defense up and perhaps a little schedule analysis (hint: it's nicely set up).

Pitching

2007-06-24T13:41:00.001-04:00

The Tigers have pitching and lots of it. Since Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson are now back and rookie league ball has opened play this past week, let's talk a little bit about the Tigers current and future pitchers. Who better to start with than the 2 young studs of the rotation, Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman.

Justin Verlander - 24 years old, RHP. You might have noticed that he tossed a no hitter last week. What you might not have noticed is that his strikeout rate has been steadily climbing this year which is a phenomenal sign for the future of this star in the making. Last year, Justin put up good W/L and ERA numbers, but his K numbers were very mundane. You might say, so what? But strikeout rates are excellent predictors of future success. It was a bit of a strange stat, however, because Verlander had excellent strikeout numbers in both college and the minors and it looks like he has finally regained the magic touch.

2007 stats: 9-2, 2.78 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.89 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.74 HR/9

What this means for the future? I believe it is spelled A-C-E. The kid is holding opponents to a paltry .213/.299/328 hitting line this year which is awesome for a 24 year old. If he continues to get better, their will be multiple Cy Youngs in his future.

Jeremy Bonderman - 24 years old, RHP. If Verlander has been Batman this year, Bonderman is definitely Robin. He got no luck in his first five starts with all no decisions, but now he is getting the run support and has run off 8 consecutive victories. Once again this year, he's a little bit snake bit from the defense putting up excellent peripheral stats but struggling just a bit with the ERA. The good news is, though, that he just keeps getting better every single year.

2007 stats: 8-0. 4.01 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.92 K/9, 1.73 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9

What this means for the future? He better wear shades it's so bright. His season long numbers are nearly identical to Verlander's which is scary good. I mean 4.5 strikeouts for every walk? Puts him in elite company. If he ever figures out how to throw a good change consistently, he might have an even higher ceiling than Verlander (if that's even possible). As for now, Verlander appears to be putting it together after his no-no so I'll give him the teeniest edge.

Andrew Miller - 22 years old, LHP. This kid is likely the future 3rd member of a dominant trio alongside Verlander and Bonderman (Millanderman?). Tonight, he'll make his 4th big league start in Atlanta on ESPN's game of the week. He's a big kid with a good fastball and a great slider. His forte is inducing groundballs, but he can also get the punch out.

2007 stats: 2-1, 3.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.75 K/9, 4.67 BB/9, 1.56 HR/9

What it means for the future? Miller will likely get hit a little bit this year. He also still needs to work on his control. But his kid has a future as a strikeout and groundout machine from the leftside which blends in nicely with the righthanded power arms the Tigers already have.

Kenny Rogers - 42 years old, LHP. The Gambler was last seen in October hurling 23 consecutive shutout innings in one of the greatest single postseason performances I have ever seen by a pitcher. He missed the first 2.5 months of the season after undergoing surgery to remove a blood clot from his left arm. Yesterday, he returned with a vengeance to the Tigers rotation hurling 6 shutout innings.

2007 stats: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP, 7.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9

What it means for the future? Kenny might not have many years left for the Tigers (is this his last?) but he has plenty of gas in the tank to be a very good pitcher in 2007. The past few years he has done better in the first half of the season before faltering down the stretch. Considering he is just now getting going, it isn't unreasonable to think he might be able to power through the rest of the season with his A stuff. He also is a great resource for the youngsters in the rotation and I suspect he'll have some excellent teaching points for Andrew Miller.

Nate Robertson - 29 years old, LHP. Coming into this season, Nasty Nate had lowered his ERA in each of his first 5 seasons in the bigs. In 2007, he got off to a hot start before getting shelled in May. A stint on the 15 day DL for a "dead arm" is over and he'll back in the rotation this week. Will he return to his old self? Well, 6 innings of no hit ball in AA suggest he will which would be excellent news for the team.

2007 stats: 4-6, 5.07 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 4.66 K/9, 3.29 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9

What does it mean for the future? I think it is quite likely that Nate did have a dead arm and if he gets his stuff back he should return to being a very good left handed starter capable of an ERA around 4.00 and some decent strikeout numbers. If not, he might be trade bait this offseason.

Chad Durbin - 29 years old, RHP. The Durbinator had a good 2006 for the Mudhens and basically took Kenny Rogers spot in the rotation this year. His MLB career to date was nothing to write home about, however he has been a major bright spot in 2007 for the Tigers even allowing them to trade both Mike Maroth and Wil Ledezma.

2007 stats: 6-3, 4.37 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.71 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9

What this means for the future? He's got himself a spot locked down as a long reliever and spot starter with his quality work this year.

Zach Miner - 25 years old, RHP. It's hard to believe this kid is only 25, but he is and he is actually a pretty good pitcher. He has worked out of the pen this year after being the #5 starter last year, but his numbers are even better this year.

2007 stats: 0-1, 2.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.15 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9

What this means for the future? Sure it's only been a little over 11 innings out of the pen this year, but Miner is a keeper. His career ERA now sits at 4.57 and for a ground ball pitcher his 2/1 K/BB ratio over his career is very nice. He is a solid player and would be a nice #5 starter for nearly any team in the league. As it stands, he is just another cog in the Tigers pitching machine.

How about off to the minor leagues now? Apologies to guys like Eugolio De La Cruz and Joel Zumaya, but your future is in the bullpen and I'm not talking about that today.

Jon Connolly - 23 years old, LHP, Toledo Mudhens. This lefty has already been traded once from the Tigers and then resigned as a free agent. This year, he has regained some confidence and has pitched well between Erie and Toledo.

2007 stats (combined): 4-3, 3.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 6.08 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9

What this means for the future? All around, those are excellent numbers for a 23 year old between AA and AAA. He has really been tough to hit and has also shown excellent control. He is making quite a resurgence this year on the prospect lists and now probably has to be considered one of the better young pitchers in the Tigers organization. He will, however, need to show this isn't a fluke by continuing to pitch well in the 2nd half because thse numbers are significantly better than 2006 across the board.

Virgil Vasquez - 24 years old, RHP, Toledo Mudhens. Virgil got called up to make 1 start for Detroit this year and got shelled. Fortunately, he has been doing much better in Toledo.

2007 stats: 7-2, 4.37 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.42 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 1.61 HR/9

What it means for the future? Virgil is a good pitching prospect. He doesn't have dominant stuff, but still strikes out a ton of batters. You'll notice his K rate is the highest of any player listed thus far. However, his HR allowed rate is also the highest and he has never been known as a ground ball pitcher. Doesn't seem like a super high ceiling kind of guy, but he could blossom into a solid #3 starter in the bigs in 3-4 years. Then again, that would probably make him a #5 at best in Detroit so he could definitely be trade bait.

Jordan Tata - 25 years old, RHP, Toledo Mudhens. Tata was a very good pitching prospect last year, but he missed the first 2 months of this season with injury. He's back now, and slowly getting his stuff back.

2007 stats: 1-1, 3.91 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 3.91 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.56 HR/9

What it means for the future? Depends on how he bounces back the rest of the year. If he keeps improving and gets back to where he was last year, he's as good as Vasquez. His numbers through 5 starts, however, are not very good in the K or BB areas. We'll have to wait and see how the 2nd half of the year goes.

Jair Jurrjens - 21 years old, RHP, Erie Seawolves. This kid has always been very young for his age. He has also thrived on excellent control thus far in his minor league career.

2007 stats: 2-3, 3.80 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 6.10 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 0.27 HR/9

What it means for the future? Jair is walking a few more batters this year which is making his WHIP suffer. He is, however, nearly impossible to hit a HR off allowing only 2 through 66 1/3 innings on the season so far. Last year he only allowed 11 through 140 innings so this isn't really a fluke. He has fallen off a little from his past performance, but he's still really young and the strikeout rate isn't bad and the HR rate is amazing. Still gotta think of him as a very good pitching prospect.

Dallas Trahern - 21 years old, RHP, Erie Seawolves. This kid is a groundball specialist from the right side. He has steadily moved through the Tigers system and now finds himself quite young for the Eastern League and still performing well. In all actuality, he has actually played better this year than in the past and is really moving up in the prospect world.

2007 stats: 10-3, 3.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 4.87 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9

What it means for the future? You can tell by his WHIP and K numbers that his ERA has been a little on the lucky side. However, he has pretty good control and his insane ground ball rate helps keep the HRs to a bare minimum. Considering his age and the league, he has put himself up alongside some of the best pitching prospects in the organization.

Christopher Cody - 23 years old, LHP, Lakeland Tigers. This steady lefty out of Manhattan College just got the move up to Lakeland from West Michigan. It's well deserved as he was tearing up the Midwest League. He's still a bit old for Lakeland, but if he tears it up he'll be in Erie or Toledo next season.

2007 stats (MWL) - 5-5, 1.77 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 9.07 K/9, 1.48 BB/9, 0.10 HR/9

What it means for the future? Hard to say. He flat out dominated in the Midwest League with scary good numbers across the board. Then again, he is 23 and should be dominating that level of competition in a very good pitchers park. But the park has nothing to do with those K and BB numbers. If he puts up big numbers in Lakeland this year, he might be the real deal. Not like Verlander/Zumaya/Miller good, but very good (especially for a lefty).

Lucas French - 21 years old, LHP, Lakeland Tigers. He isn't as dominant as Cody, but he's 2 years younger and has spent the whole year in Lakeland already.

2007 stats - 4-5, 3.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.35 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9

What it means for the future? He's got pretty good numbers at an age appropriate league and he's a 6'4" lefthander. Sounds like a solid MLB prospect to me.

Ramon Garcia - 22 years old, LHP, West Michigan. This kid just made his 2007 debut after missing the 2nd half of 2006 and the first 2 months of 2007 with arm problems (I don't recall the details). In 2006, he dominated the Midwest League as much as Cody did this year (and he was 2 years younger) with a 1.92 ERA and 5 times as many Ks as BBs.

2007 stats: 0-1, 27.00 ERA, 3.86 WHIP, 3.86 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 3.86 HR/9

What it means for the future? It will be interesting to see if he can regain his touch from last year. He as obviously brilliant in 2006, but got rocked in his first start of 2007. I have no idea how likely it is that he can once again find his dominating stuff.

That's about it for the Tigers major pitching prospects at this point. There are other guys out there like Jonah Nickerson that still have a lot to prove before getting mentioned with these players.

As it stands right now, I'd rank the Tigers minor league pitching prospects as follows (not including Andrew Miller who is up to stay):

1) Virgil Vasquez
2) Dallas Trahern
3) Jair Jurrjens
4) Jon Connolly
5) Christopher Cody
6) Jordan Tata
7) Ramon Garcia
8) Lucas French

Andrew Miller versus Justin Verlander

2007-06-05T20:09:00.000-04:00

Sure, they have their differences. Verlander is a RHP that was taken #3 overall from Old Dominion in the 2004 draft. Miller is a LHP that was taken #6 overall from North Carolina in the 2006 MLB draft. By know, you know Justin Verlander went 17-9 last year in Detroit and was named the American League Rookie of the Year. Andrew Miller got his cup of coffee in the big leagues in September in 2006 and went back to the minors this year.

Andrew Miller is on fire at AA Erie right now. His pitching is most probably most similar to what 22 year old Justin Verlander did in 2005 in the minors. Here is how they compare in a few categories by level (both started at Lakeland and then went to Erie).

Verlander
Lakeland - 13 starts, 86 innings, 9-2 record, 104 strikeouts, 19 walks, 70 hits, 1.03 WHIP, 1.67 ERA
Erie - 7 starts, 32.2 innings, 2-0 record, 32 strikeouts, 7 walks, 11 hits, 0.55 WHIP, 0.28 ERA

Miller
Lakeland - 7 starts, 41.1 innings, 1-4 record, 28 strikeouts, 15 walks, 43 hits, 1.40 WHIP, 3.48 ERA
Erie - 4 starts, 30.2 innings, 2-0 record, 24 strikeouts, 5 walks, 22 hits, 0.88 WHIP, 0.59 ERA

Not a bad start at Erie for Miller, huh? Looks even better if you throw in his 6 scoreless innings for the Tigers against St. Louis. But what can we expect from Andrew Miller in the future? Well, he's got a couple things going for him. For one, he's a lefty. Lefthanders with his stuff don't come around every day. He's also an extreme GB pitcher. In Lakeland he got 4.50 ground outs for every out made in the air (fly ball, line drive, pop up, etc). In Erie, he has bumped that up to 4.62 ground outs for every air out. Why do Ground Outs matter? Well, pitchers that have high ground ball rates and high strikeout rates are a rare bird. And I mean that in a good way. This post at The Baseball Analysts talks about MLB pitchers and GB% and K rate in 2006. Notice the names at the top of the list including Francisco Liriano, Brandon Webb, Jeremy Bonderman, John Smoltz, Roger Clemens, etc. It's good company to keep.

I'm not sure exactly when Miller will be in Detroit for good. After a slow start in Lakeland this year, he has certainly taken off in Detroit and Erie only allowing 2 runs over 36 innings pitched with excellent peripherals. A few months ago I would have laughed at any notion that he would be in Detroit for good this year. Now, I'm not sure. And I say that knowing Kenny Rogers and Joel Zumaya are coming back soon. I hope the Tigs keep him in the minors this entire season and keep him starting all year and limit him to 180 innings or less. I'd love to see him make the rotation next spring alongside Bonderman and Verlander was one of the best young pitching staffs in the majors and a foundation for the Tigers for years to come.

You Better Recognize

2007-05-24T22:48:00.000-04:00

As much as I love Curtis Granderson, you just have to give it up for Magglio Ordonez right now. He is just crushing the ball. 4-4 today with another 3 RBI leading the Tigers to a 12-0 win and series win over the Angels.

He is hands down at the front of the AL MVP race right now. Check out his stats and ranks in the American League.

Batting average - .361 (3rd)
Home runs - 12 (3rd)
Runs - 42 (1st)
Runs Batted In - 45 (1st)
Doubles - 23 (1st)
Extra Base Hits - 35 (1st)
On Base Percentage - .441 (3rd)
Slugging Percentage - .710 (1st)
OPS - 1.151 (1st)

Can you say WOW?!?!?!?! His lowest rank in any of those major stats is 3rd in the American League. This from a guy that was battling injuries the last few years and thought to be horribly overpaid by the Tigers when they signed him as a free agent. And let's not forget, he's the same guy that authored the single biggest moment in Tigers history in the last 20 years back in October.

Hi, My Name Is

2007-05-17T16:18:00.000-04:00

Isn't it about time for Curtis Granderson to get a little recognition nationally? So far in 2007, he's off to a great start. Here are some of his ranks amongst American Leaguers:

8th in Slugging Percentage - .580
10th in OPS (On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage) - .920
11th in Home Runs - 7
1st in Triples - 5
8th in Doubles - 12
12th in Stolen Bases - 6
2nd in Range Factor (amongst CF) behind Ichiro Suzuki

Come on, how can you not love a kid that plays the game like he does? And he's not even on the All Star ballot? Are you kidding me? He's one of only 2 players in the majors with at least 5 doubles, triples, home runs, and steals (Jimmy Rollins is the other).

Vote For Curtis

2007-04-20T07:27:00.000-04:00

The MLB All Star Game ballot is now out and available for voting on MLB.com. There is a nice article about the Tigers' nominees on their official website. It provides a link so that you can go and stuff the ballot box for all your favorite Tigers, up to 25 times per person.

Unfortunately, there was one Tiger left out. Since the game is being played in a National League park, there is no DH to vote for. Gary Sheffield was moved to the OF for voting purposes which meant that one regular Tiger OF got bumped. Curtis Granderson, perhaps the most popular player on the team, was the one left out.

Normally, I wouldn't really care about this. But Curtis Granderson is rapidly becoming one of my favorite Tigers of all time. He's a genuinely nice person, he's all over the internet with blogs and a myspace site, and he's actually a good player. How he was left off instead of Craig Monroe is mind blowing (no offense to Craig).

I believe I am going to get around to organize a write-in campaign for Granderson next week. He might not be the best outfielder in the American League, but he is one of the better centerfielders in the AL and he definitely deserves consideration for the All Star Game.

Bee-line to the Tourney?

2007-04-02T19:33:00.000-04:00

Reports are starting to bubble up on message boards from Morgantown to Ann Arbor that John Beilein has decided to coach the Wolverines.

What else can I say? Bill Martin hit a home run on this one. He is getting a phenomenal coach on the bench that can and will get players to improve over time and play smart basketball and win games. He also proved his ability/desire to get outside of hiring somebody from within or somebody with ties to Michigan, but just went out and got a great coach. We can only be so lucky if the football coaching hire in a year or two goes so well.

But anyways, visions of the NCAA tourney are once again dancing in my head!

Spring Stats

2007-03-25T19:46:00.000-04:00

Well, the regular season is merely a week away now. Here's a perusal of what figures to be the Tigers opening day lineup and starting rotation and key relievers and how they have fared this spring. Hitters have BA/OBP/SLG listed and Pitchers have IP/ERA/K/BB listed.

Curtis Granderson - .310/.328/.483
Placido Polanco - .489/.574/.644
Carlos Guillen - .209/.300/.349
Magglio Ordonez - .260/.316/.380
Gary Sheffield - .256/.456/.538
Sean Casey - .277/.286/.383
Craig Monroe - .350/.413/.550
Pudge Rodriguez - .365/.393/.596
Brandon Inge - .288/.387/.385

Jeremy Bonderman - 18.0/4.00/15/8
Kenny Rogers - 22.0/2.05/5/5
Justin Verlander - 13.0/8.31/7/5
Nate Robertson - 17.1/3.12/16/9
Mike Maroth - 14.0/3.86/4/4
Joel Zumaya - 9.0/0.00/10/2
Fernando Rodney - 8.1/4.32/8/1
Todd Jones - 8.1/2.16/6/1

So who has been playing out of their mind this spring? Well, Placido Polanco doing his best Babe Ruth impersonation is probably the biggest offender. Craig Monroe and Pudge Rodriguez are also killing the ball. On the mound, Todd Jones is probably the only guy really greatly exceeding what he can be expected to produce although even I don't expect Zumaya to carry a 0.00 ERA this year.

Who is playing well, but within the realm of what they could do? Curtis Granderson, Gary Sheffield, Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson, Mike Maroth, and Fernando Rodney are all playing nicely.

Who is off to a rough start that we shouldn't worry about? Carlos Guillen will not hit this poorly all year, guaranteed! And while Verlander may take a step back from 2006, his ERA will not be north of 8 this year.

What does all this mean? Not a damn thing, but it's 80 degrees in North Carolina today and I can't wait for Opening Day to finally get here as the Tigers open defense of their American League pennant!

Coaching Candidate of the Day

2007-03-25T18:10:00.000-04:00

Chris Lowery

Who is he? The 34 year old 3rd year coach of Southern Illinois. You remember them, the #4 seed from the Missouri Valley Conference that took Kansas to the wire in the Sweet 16. He is from Evansville, Indiana and played at SIU before becoming an assistant under Bruce Weber at SIU and Illinois.
What style does he run? Picture the Baltimore Ravens circa 2000. His team plays a mean nasty defense that beats up the opposition. They are nothing special on offense, but the tenacious defense gets the job done. This past year, Southern Illinois averaged 60.5 possessions per game which ranked 324th in the nation. That is damn slow. They did manage to rank 18th nationally in defensive efficiency and a pedestrian 141st in offensive efficiency. Defense, defense, and more defense. Last year, SIU finished 4th nationally in defensive efficiency. His kids just get after it on the defensive end with no regard for the well being of their opponents.
Why would he come to Michigan? Come on, it's Southern Illinois. I don't care how long he has been there, he's a rising star in the coaching ranks and Michigan is a big step up in the world of college hoops hierarchy. Michigan can offer a lot more money as well.
Why would Michigan want him? Could be a little risky considering his lack of experience, but the guy has star written all over him with what he has accomplished with the Salukis. If Lowery lands at Michigan, the Wolverines are instantly one of the toughest teams to play against in the Big Ten.

CG28

2007-03-24T23:27:00.000-04:00

Curtis Granderson, he of View From the Outfield on MLBlogs, is already one of the coolest people in Major League Baseball. The question for me, is, what kind of a season will he put together in 2007? The kid from Chicago tore up Detroit's minor league system to the tune of a career .300 batting average, .383 on base percentage, and .495 slugging percentage. And he did this at age appropriate levels so he wasn't padding his stats as a 23 year old in low A ball.

Those stats suggest he will be a productive player in the majors. In 2006, however, Curtis was up and down and finished his first full season with a .260/.335/.439 hitting line that had to be a little disappointing. Let's dig further...

In 2005, Curtis was a part time player in July and August before playing the entire month of September. Since he became a full timer in September of 2005, here are his month by month stats...

Sept 2005 - .287/.337/.500
April 2006 - .269/.376/.473
May 2006 - .287/.365/.475
June 2006 - .303/.384/.495
July 2006 - .273/.332/.352
Aug 2006 - .156/.224/.256
Sept 2006 - .273/.314/.555

Notice something here? The kid has been great except for July and especially August last summer. Did he hit a rookie wall in his first full MLB season? Did pitchers start to figure him out? Well, he did bounce back with a nice September that included 15 extra base hits (5 doubles, 4 triples, and 6 home runs).

This spring, he has been working on cutting down on the strikeouts. He has always K'd a lot, but last year he whiffed 174 times in 159 games. That's a lot. This spring he has cut back to only 6 strike outs in 16 games (53 at bats) which probably works out to around 70 or 80 in a full season for a leadoff hitter. On the other hand, he has only walked twice which isn't very good for a guy with a good eye.

I guess what I'm hoping is that when you combine his minor league performance with the fact that 5 of his 7 months as a pro have been very good, I am quite hopeful that Curtis will have a big year in 2007. Something along the lines of a .285 BA, .360 OBP, and .475 SLG is not out of the question.

Transfers????

2007-03-20T16:22:00.000-04:00

One of the big rumors/wonders/much-to-do-about-nothings is wondering what Michigan's roster will look like in 2007/8 on the court now that Amaker has left town. The biggest names being thrown about are current freshmen DeShawn Sims and Ekpe Udoh along with signed recruits Manny Harris, Alex Legion, and Kelvin Grady.

Sims and Udoh? According to the Ann Arbor News..."Ekpe Udoh isn't going anywhere. And neither is DeShawn Sims. Three days after Michigan fired basketball coach Tommy Amaker, Udoh told The News he has no plans to transfer and neither do any of his teammates." My current level of concern for either is quite low, expect both to be around next year.

Alex Legion? According to the Detroit News....“I’m still committed to Michigan, as long as I have players around me like (incoming recruit) Corperryale Harris and (current player) DeShawn Sims,” Legion said. He is certainly talking the talk right now, but he has to be the most likely to head elsewhere since he already decommitted from Michigan once and took a big look nationally when he was being recruited. In the end, it probably depends on who Michigan hires. I'd still say better than 50/50 he is a Wolverine.

Manny Harris? According to the Detroit News...""As of right now my heart is with Michigan," Harris said. "I will wait and see who they will hire. We've got to see what coach comes in." This is a kid that chose Michigan in no small part because it is so close to home. I'd be very surprised if he went elsewhere.

Kelvin Grady? Apparently still weighing his options including playing football at Michigan. His brother is UM tailback Kevin Grady. There are still strong family ties to Michigan and I think in the end he will end up at Michigan playing basketball.

I'd imagine the most likely scenario is that everybody shows up who was expected to be on the team next year. Next most likely is that one of the three recruits heads elsewhere with Legion being the most likely to move on. It certainly appears that the roster will be pretty stable, however, which is a relief to a program looking to avoid taking a big step back.

Coaching Candidate of the Day

2007-03-19T19:43:00.000-04:00

John Beilein

Who is he? The current coach of West Virginia who sports a career record of 548-318. He has taken LeMoyne, Canisius, Richmond, and West Virginia to the NCAA tournament. He is in the NIT this year with a young Mountaineer squad, but before that reached the Elite 8 in 2005 and Sweet 16 in 2006. He has posted a winning record in 26 of his 29 years as a head coach.
What style does he run? Beilein favors a spread offense that stretches the defense out and makes them defend the entire court. His Mountaineer squad plays at a slow pace (63.3 possessions per game which is only slightly faster than Michigan this year at 62.7). They are very efficient on offense, however, scoring 1.131 points per possession to ranked 15th best in the nation. They allow 97.6 points per possession on defense which is 71st in the nation. This is the 3rd year in a row that WVU has ranked very highly in offensive efficiency and not nearly so high in defensive efficiency. And in a major departure from Amaker ball at Michigan, they rarely turn the ball over, only on 16.9% of possessions this season which is the 9th lowest rate in the nation. If putting the ball in the hoop efficiently is your passion, Beilein is your man. If you believe in tough nosed defense, maybe not so much.
Why would he come to Michigan? Well, WVU is still small time when it comes to basketball. It's a lot easier to recruit high end talent to Ann Arbor than it is to Morgantown. Michigan also might actually pony up some $$$ and exceed his $700,000 or so annual salary for the Mountaineers.
Why would Michigan want him? He's a likeable guy that has won everywhere he has been. Turning WVU into a respectable basketball program is a tougher job than he'll face in Ann Arbor.

The End of an Era

2007-03-18T08:18:00.000-04:00

So long Tommy, we hardly knew ya. Wait, maybe we knew you too well. You are a great guy. Nice, respectful, clean cut, always saying and doing the right things. You took a Michigan basketball program that was on the verge of disaster and righted the ship. You got them through the darkest days in Michigan athletic history. But in the end, you couldn't win enough games.

Was it the lack of recruiting? The sloppy offense? Was it the players? Does it matter? The official tale of the tape: 6 years, 109-83, 43-53 in conference play, 3 NIT appearances, 2 NIT finals, 1 NIT championship, and one big gaping hole in terms of NCAA tournament appearances.

The big question is, what's next?

Michael Rosenberg wonders, "Here is a crazy idea: Why doesn't Michigan close the truck stop and start a major basketball program?"

Gary Parrish notes that there could be major interest in the job: "Now you know why people weren't jumping all over the Minnesota job. It’s because few wanted to get too involved with that gig until they were certain Michigan wouldn't open considering everybody assumed Michigan would open eventually.

On Saturday, eventually arrived. And if Michigan is willing to throw around big money and invest in facilities then it will lure a high-profile coach from somewhere and again become a basketball power now that the uninspired Tommy Amaker era is complete. "

Even the New York Times chimes in: "Publicly, Big Ten coaches will say that the firing of Amaker is unfortunate, but privately they are concerned about the reawakening of a power that won a national championship in 1989 and made the title game in 1992 and 1993 behind the famed Fab Five."

What does the future hold for Michigan basketball? I have no idea. Lots of names are getting tossed around right now, some of which are pipe dreams and some of which are possibilities. Tubby Smith, John Beilein, Mike Montgomery, Lon Kruger, Steve Lavin, Chris Lowery, Tony Bennett, Gregg Marshall, Karl Hobbs, etc.

I would think Chris Lowery would be my top choice aside from Tubby Smith if he resigns from Kentucky. Then names like Beilein or Hobbs or Marshall. All I know is that Michigan has to get this one right. They need to right the ship and reawaken a sleeping giant of a basketball program.

Appalachian State?

2007-02-16T16:26:00.000-05:00

So apparently Michigan has finalized their 2007 football schedule with a home game against Appalachian State to go with Notre Dame, Oregon, and Eastern Michigan. It will be the first game in Michigan history against a I-AA opponent because they couldn't find another I-A team willing to take a paycheck for a 1 game roadie.

What is there to say about Appalachian State? It's Hot, Hot, Hot!

Nasty

2007-02-10T11:45:00.000-05:00

American League hitters are already shaking at the prospect of facing Joel Zumaya in 2007.

Since everybody wants the email

2007-01-31T19:00:00.000-05:00

And that's the end of that. I believe everybody that wanted the email has now had an equal opportunity shot at it. If not, I'm sure it's still floating around email addressess that are easy enough to find. Hell, mine is around here somewhere.

Thanks for stopping by, we now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

2007 Detroit Tigers Preview - Lineup

2007-01-30T09:49:00.000-05:00

Last year, the Tigers ranked 5th in the American League in runs scored which isn't bad. It wasn't your average offense, however, as they struck out a lot, walked very little, and mashed a bunch of home runs. The Tigers' .329 team OBP ranked 12th in the American League and just barely ahead of the 13th place Mariners, but their 203 home runs only trailed the White Sox (236) and Yankees (210).

What to expect this year? Well, they still don't have a true leadoff hitter. They still have guys with major holes in their plate approach. But they also added a big time bat in Gary Sheffield. Even though he's 38 years old he is instantly one of the two best hitters on the team alongside Carlos Guillen.

Before the analysis, just one brief pause. If strikeouts by a hitter or batting average are terribly important to you, just stop reading. There is plenty of evidence that they mean next to nothing which I am not going to bother rehashing here right now.

Curtis Granderson

Never Nervous Curtis had his first full season of big league action last year posting a .260/.335/.413 line and playing solid D in centerfield. That's decent production, but nowhere near what he is capable of. His entire minor league career, he had an OBP between .360 and .410 and a slugging percentage from .460 to .510. Look at his age 24 season in Toledo for evidence of what we can hopefully expect as he continues to develop. He hit .290 that year with a .359 OBP and a .515 SLG cranking out 15 home runs and 22 SBs in only 111 games. Grandy will never be a .300 hitter, but he draws plenty of walks and hits for plenty of power to be a borderline all star CF for years. Critics point to his high K totals, but they've never held him down in the past. It'd be nice if he made just a tad more contact, but this kid is a legit talent and will turn 26 in spring training. He will likely once again bat leadoff because of his speed even though he is more of a #3 or #5 hitter .

Placido Polanco

Oh Placido. You won the ALCS MVP and gave yourself a reputation as a clutch hitter. But man, oh man, did you stink at the plate last year. It was brutal. As good as you were in 2005? You were equally bad in 2006. Polanco's batting line in 2005 was .331/.383/.447 and in 2006 it was .295/.329/.347. Last year he exemplified to a T why batting average is not a good stat to look at. He hit .295, drew barely any walks and almost never got an extra base hit. Not a pretty site to behold. The good news, however, is that his 2006 season was sort of out of left field. Placido had been an above average hitter for 4 consecutive seasons before nosediving last year so there is ample reason to believe he can regain his stroke and become a productive player once again. I mean it's not often somebody drops 50 points of OBP and 100 points of SLG in one season.

Carlos Guillen

Just another ho hum monster year from one of the most underrated stars in the game. Did you know that Carlos' batting average has increased every single year since his rookie season? That's seven straight years. At this rate, he'll have a batting title one of these years. In 2006, Guillen put together a phenomenal .320/.400/.519 line at the plate as he carried the team on offense. He's now been healthy 2 of his 3 years in Detroit (04, 06) and both times he was a terror at the plate and arguably the best hitting shortstop in the game. He doesn't put up the show stopping HR numbers, but he is as solid as they get at the plate this side of Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols and he managed a 10th place finish in the MVP voting. He's not what he once was defensively, but he just turned 31 a few months ago so his hitting is not likely to fall off any time soon. It's not unreasonable to expect a .320/.400/.500 hitting line again from Carlos the Great and he could even exceed that if he stays healthy.

Magglio Ordonez

Maggs put up a .298/.350/.477 hitting line batting cleanup for Detroit last year and in general gave them the feared power hitter in the middle of the lineup they were expecting. He doesn't have the power he once had, but as evidenced by his game 4 ALCS walkoff shot he can still get the job done. I'd expect very similar production from him again this year as a good but not great middle of the order run producer.

Gary Sheffield

The big offseason acquisition is the type of hitter the Tigers need. On a team filled with free swingers, this is a guy who considers anything under .400 to be a bad year for his OBP. Injured most of last year, in 2005 he hit .291/.379/.512 which was a down year at the plate. If he can even duplicate those numbers he is instantly the 2nd best hitter on the Tigers in 2007 and if he can have a big year, he is capable of putting up MVP caliber numbers at the plate.

Craig Monroe

Mr. Clutch last year needs to learn to draw a few more walks. His .255/.301/.482 batting line says it all. Lots of power, not much else. In a somewhat disturbing trend it is the 2nd straight year his OBP has declined from a decent .337 in 2004. Craig is a very good defensive left fielder and he will turn 30 next month. If he can up the BA/OBP just a little he could become a good player. As it stands, he's merely average in leftfield.

Ivan Rodriguez

35 year old Pudge is still a force behind the plate as perhaps the best defensive catcher in the league. Unfortunately, he isn't much with the bat anymore. In 2006, he put up a .300/.332/.437 hitting line. For a defensive catcher, that is very good, but it isn't nearly up to what he could do in his prime. The good news is that he worked on his plate discipline last year and managed 26 walks after only 11 in 2005. If he can get that up near 40 or 50 he could be a decent hitter in 2007. Can't expect a lot of offense, though, because he is clearly past his prime.

Brandon Inge

Perhaps the most exciting defensive infielder in baseball, Brandon has been swinging for the fences more and more as his career goes on. He turns 30 this May so he is no longer a youngster, but his batting is still evolving. In 2006, he hit .253/.313/.463 with a career high 27 home runs and 83 RBI. It'd be nice to see him up the OBP and he does have a good eye, because he makes way too many outs right now. I'm not quite sure what to expect from him in 2007. He's probably the best athlete on the team and has phenomenal hand eye coordination. I'd say that aside from Granderson, he has the biggest potential for improvement on the team based mostly on his quick hands.

Sean Casey

And now we come to the Debbie Downer segment of the lineup. Sean Casey sucked in Detroit last year. He was brought in to replace the struggling Chris Shelton at first base and proceeded to hit even worse than Shelton. He was brutal in Detroit last year. .245 batting average? .285 on base percentage? .364 slugging percentage? He actually hit worse than Polanco did last year at the biggest offensive position on the field. In Detroit, he was arguably one of the 10 worst position players in the entire American League. The good news is that this horrible performance was a huge drop from what he had been doing in Pittsburgh in 2006, which although not good was at least adequate. With the Bucs, he hit .296/.377/.408 in 2006. His total lack of power for a firstbaseman is disturbing, but he at least usually gets on base quite a bit. In Detroit, however, he stopped getting on base. Sean turns 33 this summer so it's unlikely he will all of a sudden start improving in any major way, but hopefully as he adjusts to the league he can get back to normal for him and come close to a .400 OBP to make up for his lack of power.

Chris Shelton

Speaking of Sean Casey, can we get Shelton some damn playing time. Yes, I realize he lost his swing after the quick start last year when he started reaching for the fences too much. But the kid can flat out hit. Check out his career MLB numbers in 249 games: .281/.348/.477. And he doesn't turn 27 until June. This kid can play and they need to get him in the batters box. He's a better hitter than Sean Casey right now and is not too shabby in the field. I don't care how bad he tailed off last year, he has a record of hitting everywhere he has been and they need all the offense they can get to tangle with the powers in the AL.

Marcus Thames

Speaking of hitting, how about Thames? Detroit's best hitting outfielder last year might be the odd man out for ABs this year. In 2006, he hit .256/.333/.549 while knocking 26 HRs in a little over half a season worth of at bats. If he isn't going to play much, they need to trade him for something because he is too valuable to be wasting away on the bench. It's not every team in the league that has somebody with 40-50 HR power sitting on the bench. Heck, if you combine the last 3 seasons Thames has 41 HRs in 610 at bats for the Tigers. Imagine what he'd do if he ever got regular PT.

Omar Infante

This utility man just turned 25 this offseason and had a decent year at the plate last year. He hit .277/.325/.415 in 224 at bats which isn't bad. I'd really like to see him get used as the 3rd middle infielder ahead of guys like Neifi Perez and Ramon Santiago because his offensive ability is light years ahead of them and his D isn't bad either.

As for Neifi Perez, I only hope there is some way he doesn't make the roster. He's a nice guy, but arguably one of the 5 worst hitters in the last decade of major league baseball. Look at what he did for Detroit last year: .200 batting average, .235 on base percentage, .215 slugging percentage. Neifi was a lightweight hitter in Coors Field and since he left he has been just horrid. It was at least a good sign to see Jim Leyland admit that in hindsight it was a mistake to bring him in last year. He has to go down as the worst move of the Dombrowski era.

2007 Detroit Tigers Preview - Pitching

2007-01-29T14:20:00.000-05:00

No, I'm still not down from the high of the 2006 American League pennant winning Detroit Tigers season. It was simply a thing of beauty to behold and one of the most unexpected great seasons I have ever seen. That said, it's now time to look ahead to 2007. I'll start with the pitching. It was the strength of the 2006 team and could be even better in 2007 (though that will take some luck).

First up, the rocks of the starting rotation. Barring injury, these guys are the starters.

Kenny Rogers - The Gambler just turned 42, but is coming off one of the best seasons of his career going 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA. What can we expect in 2007 from the soft tossing lefty? Well, for starters, he isn't likely to duplicate those numbers again. Wins? Maybe. But ERA will likely be north of 4.00 and closer to 4.50. His career ERA is 4.19, though he has been under 4.00 in 3 of the last 5 years. But at some point age will catch up with him. I think 180 innings and a 4.40 ERA are reasonable expectations. He won't anchor the rotation, but he won't hurt them either.

Jeremy Bonderman - This kid is the face of one of Dombrowski's first big moves with the Tigers when he jetisoned Jeff Weaver for a trio of players including Bonderman. He just turned 24 at the conclusion of the season and has 4 full seasons under his belt. What's not to love about this kid? Check out his season by season progressions:

2003 - 6-19, 162 IP, 5.56 ERA, 108 Ks, 58 BBs, 1.549 WHIP
2004 - 11-13, 184 IP, 4.89 ERA, 168 Ks, 73 BBs, 1.310 WHIP
2005 - 14-13, 189 IP, 4.57 ERA, 145 Ks, 57 BBs, 1.354 WHIP
2006 - 14-8, 214 IP, 4.08 ERA, 202 Ks, 64 BBs, 1.299 WHIP

It doesn't take a math major to see the consistent and steady improvement in nearly every category from Wins and Losses to K/BB ratio to WHIP to ERA, etc. Gotta think we'll see more of the same in 2007 as Bonderman looks to break out into the stardom he seems destined for. 18 wins, 200+ Ks, and an ERA in the 3.50-3.75 range seem well within his reach as he becomes one of the top starters in the American League behind Johan Santana.

Justin Verlander

The reigning AL rookie of the year is coming off a season in which he went 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA for the AL champs. Pretty heady stuff for a 23 year old. His peripheral numbers weren't nearly as good as Bonderman's however, and he likely had quite a bit of luck involved in that ERA and W/L record. In 186 IP, he only managed 124 strikeouts vs 60 walks and gave up a WHIP of 1.328. I'd expect he'll fall off a little this year, though the potential for greatness is still there. His low strikeout totals were somewhat perplexing given the actual quality of the pitches he throws. His fastball routinely touches 98 or 99 on the gun and he has one of the biggest knee buckling curveballs in the league. Maybe with a little more experience he will learn how to put away the big leaguers via the whiff. This year I'd expect him to come in around 200 innings with an ERA in the 4.00 to 4.25 range and hopefully >150 strikeouts. Not quite as good Bonderman, but a very good young starter.

Nate Robertson

Nasty Nate was the tough luck pitcher on the staff last year only putting together a 13-13 record despite a 3.84 ERA in 208 IP. Like Bonderman, he just keeps getting better. 2006 marked the 4th consecutive year that he lowered his ERA and WHIP, though his K and BB rates have stabilized. What can we expect this year? Well, he's a good pitcher. I think 200 IP and a sub 4.00 ERA is well within reach again, though I'm not sure how much he has left in him to improve based on his K and BB rates. He doesn't have dominant stuff, but gets the most out of what he has. For a 3rd or 4th starter in the bigs? He helps make the Tigers staff as good as any in the league.

Mike Maroth

Mike was the forgotten man in 2006 after a hot start when he was lost to injury for the rest of the season. Don't forget, however, that he has continued to battle back since he lost 21 games in 2003. Maroth was on pace for his best season ever with a 5-2 record and a 4.19 ERA before being injured. He doesn't have great stuff and considering he's coming off a major injury I don't know exactly what to expect. But for a 5th starter he is certainly a solid option to have.

Other contenders for the 5th starter spot if injury or poor performance creeps in? Gotta think of names like Jordan Tata, Zach Miner, and Wil Ledezma. Now, off to the bullpen.

Todd Jones

TJ earned his nickname of roller coaster last year with all the excitement he brought to the mound (for both teams) when he entered the game. He did somehow manage to string together a 3.94 ERA and 37 saves, however. He is getting old as he turns 39 in April, but is still likely the closer heading into spring camp. I don't expect a whole lot out of a guy that only managed 28 strikeouts in 64 innings last year, but he might just keep plugging along and holding 3 run leads by the skin of his teeth.

Joel Zumaya

Kid K was a human highlight reel last year. From his flame tattoo on his forearm to the 103 mph radar gun readings to the goatee and glare, he was sheer intimidation on the mound to opposing hitters. The sight of him mowing down the heart of the Yankees order in postseason still warms my heart. While he wasn't a closer last year, he arguably pitched much more important situations than Todd Jones often entering in the 7th or 8th inning and the game on the line. His talent is why I'm a lot less concerned about Jones as closer. If it gets that bad, Zumaya simply moves to the 9th inning. Zumaya's stats last year were off the charts. In 83 1/3 IP, he managed to rack up 97 strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP. His 42 walks allowed and 2 HBP were just wild enough to keep hitters on their toes. He is as dominant as any young reliever in the majors and is likely destined to be closing games for a long time in Detroit (think Mariano Rivera for the Yankees).

Fernando Rodney

Fernando was up and down last year, but still put together a 3.52 ERA in 71 2/3 innings pitched to go along with 65 strikeouts. He walked too many (34), but was lights out for most of the season. Over the last 2 years, he has a combined ERA of 3.27 which is excellent. A power arm like Zumaya (though not quite that fast), his devastating change up makes him tougher on lefties than righties which really helps this right hand heavy bullpen late in the game.

Wil Ledezma

60 IP with a 3.58 ERA isn't bad for this swingman who can both start games or work as a lefty out of the pen. Still on the younger side (just turned 26 last week), he has very good potential with a 95-97 mph fastball and a big curveball. If somebody goes down in the rotation, he could get a shot at starting again. Otherwise, he likely gets Jamie Walker's old job.

Jose Mesa

Buddha was signed as some insurance in the bullpen. Last year in Colorado, he managed a 3.86 ERA at the age of 40 which isn't bad. In 72 innings of work, though, he only had 39 Ks to go against 36 BBs and gave up an opponents OBP of .364. Not exactly great pitching, but decent enough as a 5th or 6th arm in the pen. Besides, it's at least worth noting that in 4 of the last 6 seasons he has managed to keep his ERA under 4.00. He was only 19/26 in save situations last year. He's a good veteran to bring in and apparently has an excellent work ethic. Hopefully he will not be counted on for innings in anything other than garbage time.

That's all I've got for guaranteed spots in the pitching staff which brings us to 9. Guys like Ed Campusano (rule 5 lefty reliever), Zach Miner, Jason Grilli, and Roman Colon probably have to earn a spot in spring training. All in all it is an excellent pitching staff, though they will have a tough time matching the production of a staff that lead the entire major leagues in ERA in 2006 (pretty good for an AL squad). The good news is that with the addition of Gary Sheffield, the offense should be better next year.

Blogging

2007-01-23T18:31:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the light blogging recently. It's a combination of too much work and too little CFB worth discussing. I'll get back in the swing of things with college hoops and some other stuff in the next week or so.

If Michigan should happen to upset Wisconsin or Indiana on the road this week (unlikely), it would really catch my attention and stamp them as a likely NCAA team.

On Deck?

2007-01-02T15:36:00.000-05:00

Since the Tommy Amaker watch is in full effect, here's a list of names to consider:

Todd Lickliter - Butler
Rudy Tomjanovich - formerly of NBA
Dana Altman - Creighton (also formerly Big 12 COY at Kansas State in 1993)
John Beilein - West Virginia (before that at Richmond)
Sean Miller - Xavier (Thad Matta's right hand man formerly)
Karl Hobbs - Geoge Washington (5 years at GW = 12 wins, 12 wins, 18 wins, 22 wins, 27 wins)
Blaine Taylor - Old Dominion (former assistant at Stanford)
Barry Hinson - Missouri State
Jim Les - Bradley
Jeff Bzdelik - Air Force (formerly coach of the Denver Nuggets)

I'm sure there are others floating around out there as well. I'd hope Bill Martin would seriously look at guys like Altman and Beilein and what it would take to get them.

D-O-M-I-N-A-T-I-O-N

2007-01-02T08:55:00.001-05:00

I think that is how USC spelled it in the second half...

Liddell/Ortiz 2

2006-12-30T14:12:00.000-05:00

I'm really looking forward to the fight tonight, although I doubt Ortiz will do anything but get knocked out again.

Made to be Broken

2006-12-29T09:07:00.000-05:00

You know what they say about records, so here are some current Wolverines with chances at breaking Michigan records (be it Monday or next year).

Mike Hart

The junior tailback now has 1515 yards on the season and 3632 yards for his career. His single season total is the 5th best in Michigan history and he needs 159 to catch Chris Perry for #4, 188 to catch Jamie Morris for #3, and 218 to catch Anthony Thomas for #2. His career rushing total is 6h best in Michigan history and he can catch Chris Perry for #5 with only 64 more yards. He only needs 840 yards to tie Anthony Thomas for the #1 overall spot in Michigan history and barring injury, that seems like a lock next year as he has a very real chance to crack the 5000 yard barrier.

Mike Hart also has 14 rushing TDs this year and 27 for his career. He needs 1 more TD to tie Anthony Thomas for the 5th most in a single season in Michigan history. His 27 career rushing TDs are 9th best in Michigan history and he can surpass quite a few people before his career is over. He'll catch Gordon Bell with 1, Butch Woolfolk with 2, Billy Taylor with 3, and Steve Smith with 4. He needs 12 more to catch Chris Perry for #3 all time behind Tyrone Wheatley and Anthony Thomas.

Hart is now up to 19 career 100 yard rushing games which places him 3rd on Michigan's all time list needing only 3 more to catch Anthony Thomas for #1 all time. Hart can also tie Jamie Morris with 10 games of 100 yards rushing in a single season if he has a big Rose Bowl. He also has 8 career 150 yard rushing games which puts him just one behind Anthony Thomas for the #1 all time mark at Michigan. His 4 career 200 yard rushing games already hold the Michigan all time record.

Chad Henne

Chad is now up to 7468 career passing yards and 68 career passing touchdowns. He only needs 1786 yards to catch John Navarre for the all time Michigan lead and 3 TDs to catch Grbac for #2 on the list and 4 TDs to catch Navarre for #1 on the list. Henne also is down to 22 TD passes needed to catch Drew Brees for the all time Big Ten record and will likely fall just short of Brees all time Big Ten record for passing yardage.

Mario Manningham

Manningham has 9 TD catches on the season and 15 for his young career. Mario just needs 1 more TD to catch Braylon Edwards for the 10th best single season in Michigan history and 2 more would put him into a tie for the 6th best season in Michigan history. For his career, Manningham is now up to a tie for 10th best of all time in receiving TDs and only 8 more would put him all the way up to 4th behind Edwards, Carter, and Howard. If Manningham stays for 4 years, he has an outside shot at Braylon Edwards Big Ten and Michigan record of 39 career TD catches.

LaMarr Woodley

Woodley sits at 11 sacks and 14 TFL on the season and 22 sacks and 46 TFL for his career. He only needs 1 sack to tie the Michigan single season record and he needs 2 sacks to get to 3rd best in Michigan career history and 3 sacks to get to #2 in the all time record book. When it comes to TFL, he is 4th on Michigan's career list and can climb all the way to #2 with only 2 more TFL against USC. Woodley's 123 yards lost on TFL this season is already the best in Michigan history (by 1 yard over Jason Horn in 1995) and his 111 yards lost just on sacks is far and away the best in Michgian history in a single season ahead of Chris Hutchinson's 99 yards lost in 1992.

LaMarr Woodley also has 4 fumble recoveries on the season which places him in a tie for 3rd best single season in Michigan history and he needs 1 more to move into a tie for the best of all time.

Leon Hall

Leon Hall has 15 pass break ups this season and 31 for his career. Leon only needs 3 PBUs to move from #2 to #1 all time on the Michigan single season list alongside Marlin Jackson in 2002. He also needs 3 more to tie Marlin Jackson for #2 on the Michigan career list behind Todd Howard's 41. Leon Hall also has 3 INTs on the season and 12 for his career. His career total is #4 all time and he only needs 1 more to move to #3 on the career list.

Garrett Rivas

Garrett already has the career Michigan record with 63 career field goals made (tied with Remy Hamilton at #1). He also is the #2 career leader in field goal percentage at 77.8% (for players with at least 20 attempts) just behind Remy Hamilton at 83.3%. Garrett's 161 made PATs in his career are best in Michigan history (JD Carlson's 137). There really isn't a whole lot left for him to do in the record books once he gets one more FG to break the tie with Hamilton.

Steve Breaston

Steve already holds the Michigan career record with 1941 KR yards and 1599 PR yards. The punt return mark is also a Big Ten career record. He already joined Wisconsin's Nick Davis as the only players in Big Ten history to record at least 1000 yards in 3 different career categories (KR, PR, receiving). He also holds the Rose Bowl single game record with 315 all purpose yards in his last appearance in Pasadena so we'll see if he can top that on Monday.

The Grand Daddy of 'em All

2006-12-29T08:30:00.000-05:00

What others are saying...

The Detroit Free Press notes that speed (or lack thereof) is still a topic of discussion

According to Lane Kiffen...""When you look at the Big Ten as a whole, there is not a lot of speed". "We go for speed," he said. "That's just our philosophy."

The Free Press also mentions how next year starts on Monday for Ron English

The answer will be heard throughout the off-season. If Michigan's defense stops USC's offense, English will keep his reputation as a bright young defensive mind and Booty will face major scrutiny next August. If USC overpowers Michigan's defense, U-M fans will wonder whether English is just a younger, more charismatic version of maligned former defensive coordinator Jim Herrmann.
On the calendar and in perception, next year starts Monday.

According to the Free Press, the Michigan defense will be ready

Since then, English said he's seen improved intensity and crispness. "We've picked it up," he said. "The preparation has gone well."

The Detroit News says that USC is ready to score some points against Michigan

They have a solid defense, but you definitely see they can be exposed at times," USC star receiver Dwayne Jarrett said. "It's exciting to see things like that."

The News also quotes another USC wide receiver licking his chops

"The other corner, No. 14, he's a good player, but I don't know, we feel like we can make some plays on him," Smith said of Trent. "The safeties, if they're starters, they have to be good, but we feel like we can make some plays in the secondary."

The LA Times quotes Leon Hall on Dwayne Jarrett

"Ohio State didn't have a Jarrett-type of receiver," Hall said. "Jarrett can put himself between the ball and the defender and, if he gets that position, then it's almost 100% that he's going to get the ball."

Another gem from Lane Kiffin in the LA Times

Lane Kiffin, USC's offensive coordinator, said the Trojans hope to slow that up-field push by running at Woodley, whose size raises questions about his ability to stop the rush.

The Orange County Register says Chauncey Washington is back for USC

The Trojans do, however, have one implement they had to leave in the toolbox against UCLA. They have a healthy Chauncey Washington.

"I believe I can be a difference-maker," Washington said.

The San Gabriel Valley Tribune says Leon Hall is up to the challenge

His sophomore year he got caught up in the B.S. of being a Freshman All-American," said English, who was defensive secondary coach before taking over as coordinator this season. "But the last two years he's been the type of kid that's really bought into being technically sound."

The SGV Tribune also has a bit on a wiser Chad Henne

A year wiser and more polished, Henne looks to lead the Wolverines past the disappointment of not reaching the Bowl Championship Series championship game and to their first bowl win four years.
"We were definitely disappointed with the (BCS) outcome at first, but we're at the Rose Bowl," said the Henne, a 21-year-old junior. "We're playing a great team, and we can be the second team in Michigan history to go out with 12 wins.
"That's what we've set our hearts on and we're coming out here to go out with a win."

One Last Time

2006-12-29T08:27:00.000-05:00

Whereever it says "Kyle's Mom", just insert "Urban Meyer"

Whew, now I think I finally got it out of my system.

Will Michigan hoops dare to join this list?

2006-12-26T18:37:00.000-05:00

Alabama
Alabama-Birmingham
Alabama State
Albany
Alcorn State
Air Force
Arizona
Arizona State
Arkansas
Auburn
Austin Peay
Belmont
Boston College
Boston University
Bradley
Brigham Young
Bucknell
Butler
Cal
California-Santa Barbara
Cal State-Northridge
Central Connecticut
Central Florida
Central Michigan
Charlotte
Chattanooga
Cincinnati
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
Creighton
Davidson
Dayton
Delaware State
DePaul
Duke
East Tennessee St
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Washington
Fairleigh-Dickinson
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida A&M
Fresno State
George Mason
George Washington
Georgetown
Georgia
Georgia State
Georgia Tech
Gonzaga
Hampton
Hawaii
Hofstra
Holy Cross
Illinois
Illinois-Chicago
Indiana
Indiana State
IUPUI
Iona
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kent State
Kentucky
Lehigh
Liberty
Louisville
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana State
Manhattan
Marquette
Maryland
McNeese State
Memphis
Miami (Fl)
Michigan State
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Missouri
Monmouth
Montana
Murray State
Nevada
New Mexico
Niagara
North Carolina
NC-Asheville
NC-Greensboro
NC-Wilmington
NC State
Northern Iowa
Northwestern State
Notre Dame
Oakland
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Old Dominion
Oral Roberts
Oregon
Pacific
Penn
Penn State
Pepperdine
Pittsburgh
Princeton
Providence
Purdue
Richmond
Sam Houston State
San Diego
San Diego State
Saint John's
Saint Joseph's
Saint Mary's
Seton Hall
Siena
South Alabama
South Carolina
South Carolina State
Southeast Louisiana
Southern
Southern Cal
Southern Illinois
Stanford
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas-El Paso
Texas-San Antonio
Texas Southern
Texas Tech
Troy
Tulsa
UCLA
Utah
Utah State
Valparaiso
Vanderbilt
Vermont
Villanova
Virginia
Virginia Commonwealth
Wagner
Wake Forest
Washington
Weber State
West Virginia
Western Michigan
Western Kentucky
Wichita State
Winthrop
Wisconsin
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Wyoming
Xavier

Just take a look at this list. Since the day Tommy Amaker was hired as head coach of Michigan in March of 2001, this is a list of schools that have played in the NCAA basketball tournament. That's 162 schools that have done what Michigan hasn't been able to. If somebody wants to argue that Michigan can't compete for a national title without major upgrades to Crisler and a practice facility, so be it. Just don't use that facilities talk as a reason why Michigan can't make the NCAA tournament when so many teams have been able to do it over the last few years.

I hesitate to even extend the list to include schools that have made it since Michigan last played in the NCAA tournament in 1998.

Holiday Cheer

2006-12-26T15:05:00.000-05:00

Slow blogging the last few weeks with me being so busy at work and having so many holiday functions to attend. Things are starting to slow down a little bit finally, and what better way to start than with some Rose Bowl preview stuff? I'll try to have it up by Thursday. As for Michigan hoops getting blown out of the water by UCLA, can't say it was a surprise. This year's team is sorely lacking in talent in the backcourt and will get beaten handily by teams that can pressure the ball.

Happy Holidays

Michigan Hoops....11-1?????

2006-12-17T11:40:00.000-05:00

So the Michigan basketball team defeated Northern Illinois yesterday to improve to 11-1 on the season heading into their showdown with #1 UCLA at the Pauley Pavilion next weekend. The question is, how good is this team? 11-1 is a mighty pretty record. In fact, it is the best record Michigan has had through 12 games in a long time. Twice under Amaker they have started 10-2 only to tail off somewhat in conference play. Michigan's only loss thus far was at NC State in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge and they haven't exactly had a quality win yet.

Let's take a peek at their 11 wins and how those teams have fared against other "major" competition this year.

Central Connecticut State - CCSU hasn't really played anybody with a 13 point loss to UMass and a 3 point loss to St. Bonaventure being their biggest name opponents
Davidson - they lost to Missouri by 6 points, Duke by 28 points, and beat Charlotte by 28 points
Eastern Michigan - lost to Marquette
Wisconsin-Milwaukee - also lost to UAB and Wisconsin
Harvard - they haven't played anybody
Youngstown State - lost to Michigan State and Ohio State
Maryland-BC - lost to St. Johns, George Washington, and Marquette
Wofford - lost to Clemson and Auburn and Cincinnati (by 1 point)
Miami (OH) - lost to Kentucky, Xavier, Illinois, and beat Rutgers
Delaware St - lost to Pitt, NC State, Marquette, Purdue, and Wisconsin
Northern Illinois - hasn't played anybody

So not exactly an impressive slate of victories. Miami, UW-Milwaukee, Wofford, and Davidson are probably the best of the group. But how does Michigan stack up statistically with last year's NIT group through 12 games? Well, it's tough to compare because last year they had already played Notre Dame, Miami-Florida, UCLA, and Indiana. But here's a look anyway:

Stat: Last year - this year

Team FG%: 50.2% - 48.3%
Opp FG%: 41.4% - 36.0%
Rebounding margin: +8.6 - +9.4
Asst/TO ratio: 1.04 - 1.15
Team PPG: 73.0 - 70.5
Opp PPG: 61.3 - 54.3

Not a whole lot of difference. They still turn the ball over way too much. The defensive stats have been a bit better, albeit against far inferior competition. It will be interesting to see how they hang with UCLA. Can they keep it interesting in the second half? Will they get blown off the floor? The one encouraging part about this season thus far is that they have done most of this without much contribution from super frosh DeShawn Sims who has had a few little injuries here and there, but has been really emotionally hampered by the murder of his little brother a few weeks ago. If Sims can ever get his game back, they could make a run at an NCAA bid this year in a weak Big Ten. Based on recent history, however, I'm not holding my breath.

Gary Danielson is the Anti-Christ

2006-12-05T17:06:00.000-05:00

I bet Urban Meyer still feels dirty from the rim job that Gary Danielson gave to Florida on Saturday, though Urban was begging for it at the time.

Here's a link to the CBS feedback page where you can let them know what a douchebag you think Gary is and ask for his termination.

Go nuts with it. If Gary never says one word on TV again, I will be happy. He disgraced himself.

God Save Us All

2006-12-05T14:02:00.000-05:00

Jim Walden, the former coach of Iowa State, apparently has a vote in the Harris Poll. As you probably know, this gives him a say in who plays in the BCS national title game. Well, not only does Jim have a vote, he had an interesting vote. He was the one and only person in the country to vote Florida #1 ahead of Ohio State. Here are some quotes from this weekend and a few months ago that put this man's logic in perspective.

From Whole Hog Sports:

But Walden said Texas would still deserve to be rated higher than every other one-loss team if it wins out because the Longhorns’ only loss was to No. 1 OhioState.
“You’re never going to get me to vote for one team ahead of a team that’s only lost to the best team in the country,” Walden said.

OK, got it? Seems simple enough. Now this little nugget from the New York Times:

“If you look at the Big Ten conference, it is a joke,” Walden said in a telephone interview late last night. He added: “I voted my heart and I voted my strength of what I believe in. In my opinion, Florida is the No. 1 team in the nation.”

Interesting. Any other thoughts on Florida and their coach Urban Meyer? Let's check the Des Moines Register:

“I have always thought the SEC was the whiniest bunch, who are under the mistaken belief that they have invented football and I have never met Urban Henry,” said Walden, mistakenly confusing Florida coach Urban Meyer for a Lombardi-era Green Bay Packer defensive lineman. “I have been drinking a lot of Alka-Seltzer today.”

Must be the Alka-Seltzer making him loopy. Do you really want a man so hopped up on Alka Seltzer helping decide the national championship? He was sold every week of the year that Ohio State was the best team in the country, including after their final victory over Michigan. Every other person in the country with a vote gave it to Ohio State for number one. But not slick Jim. Was he just trying to avoid his own logic from earlier this year in which he unequivocally said the team that lost to #1 would have to be #2? Is he that smart? I don't know.

I do know that the Harris poll really needs to step up the quality of people voting in the poll because it is a flat out joke right now.

Facts

2006-12-04T17:08:00.000-05:00

Florida, Michigan....Michigan, Florida, etc.

One of these teams played a tougher schedule than the other as based on the cumulative winning percentage of their opponents
One of these teams best win was in South Bend by 26 points while the others best win was by 13 points at home over LSU
One of these teams lost on the road to the #1 team in the nation by three points while the other lost by 10 points on the road to 2 loss Auburn
One of these teams only had 2 games decided by 7 or fewer points while the other had 7 games decided by 7 or fewer points
One of these teams had a coach that refused to bitch and moan about what his team deserved, while the other had a coach that cried like a little girl.
One of these teams was far better against their one common opponent (Vanderbilt) than the other

And, one of these teams got snubbed from the national championship game because people don't want to watch a rematch. How sad is that? Just 2 weeks ago, the college football nation got treated to one of the greatest regular season games of all time. It was the highest rated game in over a decade. It featured the greatest rivalry in sports. It came approximately 27 hours after Bo Schembechler passed away. It was a 3 point game that came down to the final minutes. We had a chance to watch it happen again. It was Ali-Frazier II waiting to happen.

But alas, it was all for nothing. Instead, we get to watch Ohio State beat up on an inferior Florida team that is no real threat to them and Michigan gets to work on their tan in Pasadena for the 3rd time in 4 years.

But imagine what could have been if people had voted for who they thought was best, instead of what game they wanted to see. (HT MGoBlog)

George Lapides, a Memphis sports radio talk host, said he believed Florida would lose to Michigan if the teams were to play. But he jumped the Gators from No. 4 to No. 2, past the Wolverines, after Florida beat Arkansas.
“I liked the idea of a conference champion playing a conference champion,” he said. “I think that’s more appealing than a rematch. I think you try to pick something as appealing as possible.”

Happy Holidays

2006-11-23T18:59:00.000-05:00

I've been on vacation all week. Might get back to some blogging early next week when I'm back in town.

Part One?

2006-11-19T13:31:00.000-05:00

Wow. What a game. It's not often you see the most hyped regular season matchup of all time and it actually lives up to the billing. 42-39? That was a hell of a game. I hope both defensive coordinators are busy fixing some major holes this morning because those offenses were rolling.

But back to the point on everybody's mind this morning: The Rematch.

Before the game, I stated I hoped their was no rematch. I still feel that way. Michigan had their crack at OSU and lost. Unfortunately, they lost a nailbiter on the road. I am forced to ask myself, who should Ohio State face in a bowl game? While I don't think it would be fair to force them to play Michigan again, the BCS says it should be the second best team in the nation.

And that leads to the question, who else is better than Michigan? They just took the best team in the country to the wire in their own house. If it was played in Ann Arbor, they probably win. Has USC been better? They got beat by crappy Oregon State and taken to the wire by Washington and ASU amongst other lesser teams. Notre Dame? Umm, please see the 47-21 smackdown earlier this year that the Wolverines handed out to the Irish. Florida? Maybe, but they have yet to be impressive this year with close game after close game. Arkansas? I think a 5 TD loss pretty much knocks them out of the equation.

The only fair thing for Ohio State would be to award them the national title tomorrow. But that's not going to happen and there is a very good chance they will face Michigan again on January 8th.

UPDATE: Michigan remains #2 in the BCS ahead of USC and Florida.

One

2006-11-17T19:34:00.000-05:00

One Perfect Season.
One Rivalry.
One Game.
One Moment.

BO

2006-11-17T13:52:00.000-05:00

Glenn E. Schembechler. 1/1/29 - 11/17/06. He was Bo. It's only 2 letters, but never has a nickname more aptly fit a coach. He was the meanest SOB on the field and in the lockerroom you'd ever want to meet. You did not want to get in his way when he was making a point. But he also taught young boys how to be men and how to succeed in life. He was the face of Michigan football for a generation. He took a once storied program and shot it full of life and took the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry to another level when he squared off with Woody Hayes in the 10 year war.

On the eve of the biggest Michigan-Ohio State game ever, Bo and Woody will now have the best seats in the house. The timing of Bo's death is just unreal. Yesterday, he addressed the team for one last time before they headed off to Columbus. I cannot even begin to analyze how this affects the game tomorrow. It's so far past "win one for the gipper". Bo was still an active part of the Michigan football family and had an office in aptly named Schembechler Hall.

Rest in Peace, Bo, and Go Blue.

I'd be remiss if I didn't include a few of my favorite Bo quotes...

"A Michigan man is going to coach Michigan" - Bo's proclamation when Bill Frieder agreed to take the Arizona St job prior to the 1989 NCAA tournament. Out with Frieder, in with Steve Fischer, and hello national title.

"205 lbs of twisted, hardened blue steel" - How Bo described himself after collapsing a few weeks ago.

There are also some phenomenal articles on Bo getting posted around the web. The Detroit Free Press has two outstanding ones including the best I have ever seen from perennial doom and gloomer Drew Sharp. Mitch Albom's article is a thing of beauty. Bo will be in everybody's thoughts and prayers tomorrow.

It's Christmas Eve

2006-11-17T07:00:00.000-05:00

Words cannot accurately describe how much anticipation I have built up for the game on Saturday. It's insane. I have absolutely no idea how this game will play it. It is the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object. Both teams have been unbeatable this year and rolled to 11-0. OSU has been prettier, but Michigan has a more impressive resume of opponents.

The two juggernauts rocketing on a collision course all season long are finally about come together in one glorious afternoon of football at the 'Shoe.

Michigan-Ohio State is a big deal every year. It's a big deal if they have a combined record of 15-5. This year it is 22-0 in what is likely the biggest regular season game in the history of college football. Think about it.

The Biggest Rivalry in all of sports
The first time two teams from one conference have been 10-0 in over 70 years (and they are both 11-0)
The first 11-0 v 11-0 conference matchup in the history of college football
Guaranteed spot in the MNC game for the winner
Possible MNC spot for the loser (though it should be noted I am not in favor of that)

What's not to like? Troy Smith will win the Heisman with a big game. Michigan's D, meanwhile, is looking to dispose of him like Brady Quinn. Chad Henne and Mike Hart are a phenomenal tandem. Ted Ginn and Mario Manningham are two of the biggest big play threats in the country. David Harris and James Laurinitis are two of the best LBs in the nation. Malcolm Jenkins and Leon Hall are two of the best corners in the nation. Alan Branch and Quinn Pitcock are two of the best defensive tackles in the nation. LaMarr Woodley is the tasmanian devil at defensive end. Hell, you could probably make a combined team from the Wolverines and Buckeyes that would top any conference's best in the country.

This game could go any number of ways. Troy Smith could once again dazzle and lead OSU to an easy victory. Michigan's defense could pummel the OSU offense. Mike Hart might go off for 200 yards. Mario Manningham could put on a show like he did against Notre Dame. Tressell might beat Carr again. Carr might win his second national title.

The only thing I know is that the entire world of college football will be tuned in to watch. Should easily be the most watched regular season game in college football history.

Ohio State-Michigan Game Notes

2006-11-16T07:00:00.000-05:00

From the greatest production of the MGoBlue website on a weekly basis, some highlights from this week's edition of Game Notes.

The Wolverines hold a 57-39-6 advantage in the all-time series and have compiled a 6-4 record in the last 10 meetings between the two schools.
U-M has a 27-21-2 record in Columbus and is 21-20-1 at Ohio Stadium.
Head coach Lloyd Carr has a 6-5 record against the Buckeyes, including a 2-3 mark in Columbus.
The Wolverines received 1,513 votes in the coaches poll and 1,561 votes in the AP poll, including a first-place vote in both polls. This is the highest the Wolverines have been ranked in the AP poll since U-M claimed the 1997 Associated Press national title.
This Saturday, Michigan will play its 365th game when ranked in the top 10 of the Associated Press national poll. The Wolverines have compiled a 271-83-10 all-time record
(.758) when listed in the AP top 10; head coach Lloyd Carr has a 47-18 record. This season, Michigan is 8-0 while rated in the top 10.
Carr has had great success against top 10-ranked foes during his career, posting a 16-6 mark against Associated Press top 10 squads and an 8-2 record against top five teams. He began his coaching tenure with nine straight victories over top 10-ranked teams.
Carr is 6-2 on the road against top 10 teams.
The Wolverines enter the Columbus looking to claim their league-leading 43rd conference
crown and sixth during Lloyd Carr’s tenure as head coach. U-M’s 42 conference championships are the most of any college football prgram in any conference across the country. The Wolverine football program is the only Big Ten team in any sport to win a conference title in each decade.
U-M leads the nation in rushing defense this season, yielding 29.9 yards per contest to the
opposition. The Wolverines held their first four opponents to less than 50 yards rushing, the first time that U-M accomplished that feat during head coach Lloyd Carr’s tenure. Michigan has held 10 of its 11 opponents to under 60 rushing yards, including nine under 50, five under 25 and two to negative rushing yards.
Michigan’s defense heads to Columbus as the toughest to crack on third down this season.
The Wolverines lead the nation in third down defense. U-M has allowed the opposition to convert just 25 percent of its third-down chances (39-156).

I could go on and on, but there is a ton of great stuff there. It's an excellent read to get you up to speed.

The Man, The Myth, The Legend

2006-11-15T07:01:00.000-05:00

It's Ufer Time! on ESPN with a nice article by Gene Wojciechowski. Personally, I think it's an apt time to recall a famous bit of Ufer from the past. Listen here.

It was November 22nd, 1969, that they came to bury Michigan.
All dressed in Maize and Blue.
The words were said, the prayers were read, and everybody cried.
But when they closed the coffin, there was someone else inside.

Oh they came to bury Michigan, but Michigan wasn't dead.
And when the game was over it was someone else instead.
Eleven Michigan Wolverines put on the gloves of gray
And as the organ played the Victors they laid Woody Hayes away.

The part about "they came to bury Michigan" and "when they closed the coffin there was someone else inside" seems to sound familiar this year as Michigan sits as a 7 point underdog heading into Columbus and seemingly just a roadbump on the Buckeyes road to the national title.

Ufer will forever be one of the most cherished names in Michigan football, and in his own words "MEE-CHIGAN can do it. MEE-CHIGAN can do anything."

Statistically Speaking

2006-11-14T07:00:00.000-05:00

Yeah, I like numbers. They are cold and hard and people use them to make lots of arguments. Here's some numbers for The Game and how the Wolverines and Buckeyes have compared on the season thus far.

Statistic --- Michigan / Ohio State

Scoring offense: 29.4 / 35.8
Scoring defense: 12.1 / 7.8
Total offense: 373 / 401
Total defense: 231 / 262
Rushing offense: 195 / 179
Rushing defense: 30 / 90
Passing offense: 178 / 222
Passing defense: 202 / 173
Passing efficiency: 145 / 166
Pass eff defense: 101 / 97
Turnover margin: +12 / +14
FG kicking: 83% / 73%
3rd down conv: 40% / 51%
3rd down defense: 25% / 31%
Net punting: 33.9 / 37.0

A couple interesting points. OSU has a much better scoring differential, but Michigan actually has a better yardage differential (in terms of net difference and even better for percentage difference). Michigan is better on both sides on the ground and Ohio State is better on both sides through the air. Michigan has an edge at kicking, but OSU gets the edge at punting. OSU is better on 3rd down on offense, but Michigan is better on 3rd down on defense. Both teams have a phenomenal turnover margin.

What does all this mean? Not a damn thing you couldn't figure out from seeing #1 11-0 vs #2 11-0. They are both very good and have varying strengths and (relative) weaknesses.

Nothing to See Here

2006-11-12T18:44:00.000-05:00

Move along people, there is nothing going on this week. I think Michigan has a bye or something as I haven't heard much about any upcoming games.

(thanks to Nothing Is Illuminated for the link to the pic)

Yeah, now that the last of the cupcakes (Northwestern and Indiana) have been polished off, it's now officially OK to talk about the BCFGOAT. Yep, the Biggest College Football Game Of All Time is about to go down in Columbus, Ohio. Last week I learned that two teams from the same conference hadn't been 10-0 since 1935. That's a long time. I'm anxiously awaiting somebody to dig through the entire history of college football to find a pair of 11-0 teams from the same conference meeting in their season finale. I'd say there is a very good shot it has never happened. Expect an orgy of information relating to The Game this week from every media outlet imaginable.

In other news, it was nice to see the Tigers add a big time bat to the lineup. Gary Sheffield is old, but he draws walks and hits for power and is still one of the most feared hitters in the league. If he stays healthy, he is the Tigers #1 or #2 hitter alongside Carlos Guillen. It's also nice that they didn't give up a single piece of the MLB roster parting only with major prospect Humberto Sanchez and a couple A ball pitchers. More thoughts to follow once CFB is in hiatus.

A Walk Down Memory Lane

2006-11-09T07:00:00.000-05:00

This year's game is in Columbus at the Horseshoe. Here's a little look back at Michigan's last 10 trips to Ohio to play the Buckeyes.

2004 - Ohio State won 37-21 in a game that wasn't very close. Chad Henne and Mike Hart were freshmen making their debuts in the rivalry. Troy Smith stole the show ending Michigan's 13 game conference winning streak by rushing for 145 yards and passing for 241 yards.

2002 - Ohio State won 14-9 in a game that sent them to the Fiesta Bowl where they would eventually win the national championship. It was a strange game as Michigan had over 100 more yards total offense and twice as many first downs. But OSU converted their chances into 2 touchdowns while Michigan repeatedly settled for field goals.

2000 - Michigan won 38-26 in Columbus to clinch the Big Ten title. Drew Henson lead the way going 14/25 for 303 yards and 3 TDs.

1998 - Ohio State won 31-16 despite 375 yards passing by Tom Brady. Michigan never really threatened in this game.

1996 - Michigan won 13-9 over the previously unbeaten Buckeyes. This game will always be remembered for Tai Streets 69 yards touchdown on the second play of the second half when Shawn Springs slipped and fell in coverage.

1994 - Ohio State won 22-6. An ugly game all around for the Wolverines as the Buckeye scoring started with a safety when Todd Collins tripped on his lineman's feet in the endzone.

1992 - The Game finished in a 13-13 tie that was a fitting end to a Michigan regular season that featured 3 ties. Kirk Herbstreit had the game of his life and OSU rallied from a 10 point deficit in the 4th quarter to come up with the tie.

1990 - Michigan won 16-13 on a field goal by J.D. Carlson as time expired after Greg Frey's 4th and 1 keeper failed less than 2 minutes earlier deep in Michigan territory. The win sent Ohio State from the Rose Bowl to the Liberty Bowl (ouch).

1988 - Michigan won 34-31 behind legendary heroics from John Kolesar. OSU rallied from a 20-0 halftime deficit to take a 31-27 lead with 2 minutes remaining. Kolesar busted off a 59 yard kick return and then 2 plays later nabbed a 41 yard TD catch to seal the victory for the Wolverines.

1986 - Michigan won 26-24 despite 3 turnovers by outgaining the Bucks by nearly 200 yards on the day. My memory is a bit fuzzy on this one.

There you have it, 20 years of Michigan-Ohio State football in Columbus. Michigan is 5-4-1 over that time span. So who will step up this year? Can Garrett Rivas duplicate JD Carlson's feat? Can Steve Breaston channel John Kolesar? Will Chad Henne put up numbers reminiscent of Drew Henson?

Michigan Hoops Talent on the Way

2006-11-08T18:10:00.000-05:00

There is a great article on Michigan's three hoops recruits for the incoming class of 2007 on MGoBlue. Alex Legion, Manny Harris, and Kelvin Grady will bring a serious talent infusion to the roster when they set foot on campus. Legion and Harris are both ranked in the top 40 nationally by Rivals.com. Here's a quick and dirty overview of their games.

Legion - a straight up scoring machine. He's a 6'5", 185 lb wing with a deadly jumper that has range out behind the arc. He can also score in traffic. He transferred from Detroit to Oak Hill in Virginia for his senior year of HS where he can follow in the footsteps of guys like Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Williams and other elite talents that have gone their for a year of bball boot camp. Definitely needs to work on his passing and defense, but he can score with the best of them.

Harris - a tough as nails combo guard at 6'5", 170 lbs that can do it all on the court. His biggest strength is his tenacious defense, and he is at his best slashing to the hole on offense. Still needs to work on his jumper but he has a well rounded and explosive game that will make him a dangerous player on both ends of the court. Expect him to compete for PT at point guard.

Grady - lightning quick 5'11" 170 lb guard who is the little brother of Kevin. Also a great TB, but he's coming to Michigan strictly for football. Biggest strength is his defense which is aided by his blazing speed and quick feet and hands. A good but not great offensive PG, he should at minimum provide good depth and compete at the PG spot. If his jumper gets a little better he could be a very good college PG because he will lock people down on the other end.

It's nice to see that the hoopsters are starting to restock with talent after a couple of years of sleepers and projects. DeShawn Sims, Alex Legion, and Manny Harris are 3 of the most talented/highly ranked players to commit to Michigan in the last 5-10 years. When you add in the fact that Amaker is still in on some mega-recruits in 2007 at the post spots, Michigan's basketball roster is getting a serious upgrade in talent over the next 2-3 years compared to the past. I should mention that it also helps that this is the first season they have had 13 scholarships in a long time so it shouldn't be a coincidence that they are improving their recruiting.

Midweek Miscellany

2006-11-07T19:44:00.000-05:00

It's Election Day! The results are in: Ohio State still sucks! I kid because I care. It's the week before the week of the Ohio State game, which I guess is referred to by some as the week of the Indiana game. Honestly, though, it's Indiana. I know they beat Iowa, but so did Northwestern. I also know Indiana just lost to Minnesota by some God forsaken score of a bajillion to fourteen or something like that.

I gotta say that the best thing I saw on TV this weekend, was the last 23 seconds of the first half of the Wisconsin-Penn State game. It was sheer comedy on so many levels. First you have Wisconsin just blatantly abusing the clock rules which was funny on it's own. Then you get to see JoePa torn between disbelief and sheer anger as he comes onto the field and rips into the ref. Then on Wisconsin's third kickoff, a squib, PSU fumbles and it is actually recovered by Wisconsin but the half had run out by then. Finally, as JoePa is walking to the lockerroom, he threatens to go postal on the camerman. It is probably the longest last half minute of a half ever, but it is one of the best 6 minutes of TV you will ever see in a college football game. See for yourself...

Doogie Howser is gay?!?!?!?!?! I wonder if CBS will keep up the Barney's Blog. No, not the purple dinosaur. It's the blog of Neil Patrick Harris' character on How I Met Your Mother. I just find it a little amusing when Doogie is gay and his character is the horniest heterosexual guy on TV. The titles of some recent blog entries: "Huntin' Coug", "The Amazing Morning-After System", "Occupation Stimulation", etc.

It's also sad to see Britney and K-Fed calling it quits. I had such high hopes for the cute couple. If they can't make it, what hope do the rest of us mortals have? Although I have to wonder if this is just Britney fulfilling her life long destiny as trailer trash. Hand her some menthols and she can be a nice 24 year old single mother of two living back home with mommy in Louisiana. And yes, this was techinically her second marriage. Do we have an Elizabeth Taylor rival in the makings? She could hit four marriages by age 30 with no trouble at all.

Sorry for going off topic. I am still dazed and confused by Ohio State's 7 point win over Illinois and how bad the Buckeye offense looked in the second half. I don't make much of it, though, just strange to watch and wonder exactly what might be possible for the Michigan defense.

The Non-Preview Preview of Michigan Basketball

2006-11-06T07:05:00.000-05:00

They done up and sucked at the end of last year and blew what should have been a guaranteed NCAA berth with an experienced and talented team. With it is gone any ounce of benefit of the doubt I had towards this team. From now on, they'll have to prove it on the court before I believe it. But I thought I should get to this preview before Big Ten Wonk, because I guarantee that his knowledge of some of the newcomers will be lacking and perhaps I could help out :)

So what to expect this year? Would it be wrong to say "the unexpected"? Let's first go back to last year. Courtesy of Big Ten Wonk's tempo free stats, you can find some interesting things. For one, Michigan was tied for being the 2nd most efficient offensive team in the conference last year at 1.06 points per possession. This unfortunately was offset by their tying for 2nd worst defense in the conference at 1.07 points allowed per possession to the opponents.

Michigan was efficient on offense? Say what? If you are like me, you remember Michigan turning the ball over with regularity for what seems like the 28th year in a row. It's true. They were the 2nd worst team in the Big Ten turning the ball over on a full 24.1% of possessions. But when they didn't turn it over, they were demons. Michigan was the 2nd best shooting team in the conference with an eFG% of 52.9% that was topped only by the deadly Buckeyes. They were also the best offensive rebounding team in the conference snagging nearly 37% of their own misses off the glass.

Yep, if Tommy's boys could've taken care of the rock last year they would've been one of the best offensive teams in the nation. That's the good news. The bad news is they did turn the ball over too much and they stunk on defense. Michigan used their crappy defense in terms of efficiency combined with the fastest pace in the conference to allow a league worst 71.1 points per game in Big Ten games. This offset their #2 scoring offense that scored 70.5 points per game.

So what did they lose from last year? Daniel Horton, Graham Brown, and Chris Hunter are out. Freshman Kendric Price (redshirt), Ekpe Udoh, K'len Morris, DeShawn Sims, and Reed Baker are in. Horton is the obvious big loss, but is it really that big? He came on last year as a more efficient scorer but still only ranked 15th in the conference in PPWS. He also offset his #4 in the conference ranking in assists per 100 possessions with the #5 worst rate of turnovers per 100 possessions. It was the story of Horton's career. A high volume shot taker that had a poor assist/to ratio for a point guard. He did some great things, but frequently was the end of a bad Michigan possession with a missed shot or a turnover. Brown and Hunter provided some size down low the last 4 years and Brown really came on as a rebounder leading the Big Ten in rebounding percentage last year snagging a full 18.8% of all available boards when he was in the game. Neither provided much offense and were merely adequate on the defensive end, buoyed mostly by rebounding.

And who's on the team this year? We'll start with the post players and move down to the guards.

Courtney Sims - he's a big body and he's been known as a soft player throughout his previous 3 years in Ann Arbor. He sometimes plays like a dominant college big man, but way too often is nowhere to be found when the going gets tough. But behind his reputation lies a consistently improving player. In each of his first 3 years on campus, he has had significant improvements in his PPG, RPG, and FG%. His scoring has increased from 7.7 to 9.9 to 10.9 poings per game. His rebounds have gone from 4.7 to 5.2 to 5.7 per game. His FG% has gone from 55% to 59% to 63%. Not too shabby. He ranked 3rd in the Big Ten in PPWS last year and 8th in rebounding percentage (both stats for conference games only). Based on his career numbers, it seems that 12-13 points and 6.5 rebounds a game are not out of line along with 65% shooting from the field. When Sims is on, he's very tough to defend in the post with his feathery touch and long arms. Unfortunately, he can struggle to get position against tougher defenders and struggles to beat the double team. It's now or never for this senior to prove he is one of the best players in the Big Ten by stepping up in his final season.

Brent Petway - Air Georgia. Opposing fans think he just wants to dunk and has no interest in helping the team win. The funny thing is, he is a phenomenal defender and very good on the glass. Yes, his offense is limited to within 5 or 10 feet from the rim, but he is still a valuable player that brings energy off the bench. I'm a little worried that his impact will suffer if Michigan is forced to use him as a starter at the 4 spot this year. Thankfully, our next player may have something to say about that.

DeShawn Sims - Michigan's biggest recruit since Daniel Horton and a hell of a matchup problem for opponents. This freshman could be a star. He's 6'8", 225 lbs, and can score inside or out. Jamal Mashburn is the comparison that has most frequently been thrown around to describe his game. In very tragic news, his younger brother was shot and killed this weekend so my heart goes out to him and his family. Sims figures to be the prototypical 4 man for the uptempo game that Tommy Amaker favors.

Ekpe Udoh - get to know this name. He's 6'10" with a 7'3" wingspan and he can do some damage in the paint. Not afraid to mix it up down low, this freshman will provide big time depth off the bench this year spelling Courtney Sims. His style is also a nice complement to the team and will help replace a little of what Graham Brown brought.

Kendric Price - a 6'8" twig at 205 lbs who has too good of a jumper to play in the post and too little ball handling skills to play on the wing. He redshirted last year and I have no idea what kind of contribution he will make this year.

Ronald Coleman - in the words of Brian of MGoBlog, "meh". He doesn't do much for me. Supposedly a great shooter, but he's a mere 32% behind the arc in his 2 years at Michigan. He tries hard, but lacks athleticism or the ability to handle the rock. I'm never confident when he is on the floor.

Lester Abram - now this kid can play. He's a career 11 ppg scorer and ranked #4 in the Big Ten in PPWS last year. He can stroke it from anywhere on the court and is a hard nosed defender. Now a 5th year senior, he is a career 49% shooter from the floor, 40% behind the arc, and 85% from the line. His only problem is that he cannot create much off the dribble and is not a good passer. Abram is a great secondary scorer on a team, but he cannot create for himself and he doesn't make others better. Still, when he is in the game Michigan usually has an advantage over their opponent at his position.

K'len Morris - jack of all trades who can play anything from the 1 to the 3 spot on the floor. I'll have to see more of his game before I make any definitive statements as to how good this freshman is, but he is definitely not a raw project as he has a pretty polished game based on reports of everybody that have seen him. He'll provide depth off the bench this year, but we are in trouble if he is playing major minutes.

Anthony Wright - interesting freshman from hoops power Oak Hill in Virignia. He's a 3 man with deep range on his jumper and a reputation for being a tough defender. He also has to know a thing or two about winning coming from Oak Hill. Might have a tough time cracking the rotation, though, with guys like Abram and Coleman and Morris also fighting for time at the small forward spot.

Jevohn Shepherd - if anybody on the team can give Petway a run for his money in terms of athleticism, it's this kid. This sophomore from Toronto is a 6'5" skywalker. Unfortunately, he handles the ball worse than many HS players and can't pass. His jump shot is OK and he can play good defense, but his ballhandling really holds him back. A tremendous upside, but I'm skeptical that he can be more than role player this year.

Dion Harris - this senior is the prototypical combo guard. Pretty good handle for a shooting guard, but far from a natural point. He has scored at least 10 ppg in each of his first 3 seasons peaking at 14 ppg as a sophomore. Last year he was deadly behind the arc hitting 39% despite shooting a high volume going 69/177. One of the best long range shooters in the conference will be splitting time between PG and SG this year for the Wolverines. Expect his scoring to suffer if he is running the point and Michigan doesn't have anyone that can replace his scoring ability at the 2 spot. This leads us to...

Jerret Smith - the pudgy backup PG as a freshman is going to be counted on to provide big time minutes at the point this year. He is not the fastest, but is very strong on the ball on offense. A decent shot and a natural passing ability combined with good vision make him a perfect fit at point guard. Unfortunately, his conditioning lets him down at times and he has to rely on guile and strength to break down the D because his quickness isn't good enough.

Reed Baker - lightly recruited 6'1" point guard from Fort Myers, Florida. He's the prototypical scrappy little white guy that can shoot the lights out. It's a void Michigan has had since Robbie Reid graduated. How much will he contribute? Hard to say. It's not hard to imagine him coming into at least one game this year and knocking down 4/5 threes over a few minutes and breaking a game open, but it's also not a stretch to think he'll have trouble defending any good Big Ten guard.

There you have it, the 2006 Michigan Wolverines. What to expect? Only God knows. I could see them finishing anywhere between 17-14 and 23-8 in the regular season heading into the Big Ten tournament. I'm not betting on them winning anything this year, but hold out the possibility that I could be pleasantly surprised. I'll be happy if they stop turning the ball over so much and play some defense. I think the 2 most important players this year are Jerret Smith and Courtney Sims. If they are both consistently productive, Michigan will have a very good team. I find it hard to believe that they can both do that, however.

Ball State recap

2006-11-06T07:00:00.000-05:00

Or why the score looks a hell of a lot worse than the game.

Michigan
...rushed for 352 yards
...averaged 7.7 yards per carry
...got their 3rd string TB over 100 yards
...completed 68% of their passes despite several easy drops
...gave up 3 points from the starting D
...gained over 500 total yards from scrimmage
...didn't miss a kick

But yeah, it was a close game at the end.

I absolutely hate it when we play inferior opponents way too close. Michigan should be good enough to blow them out of the water. But you know what? Let's be a little rational about this. Is there anything from this game that portends badly for the Ohio State game? Not really.

Offense
Rolling, Rolling, Rolling...they were rolling on Saturday. 46 carries, 352 yards, and a boatload of asskicking up front. In addition to the rushing attack, Chad Henne was 17/25 passing despite being victimized by several easy drops. And yes, Superman was back in action wearing number 86. What's not too like? How about the drops. It's becoming a nasty habit of the receivers dropping too many easy catches. Henne also threw a pick six. Watching the film, I'm not sure if Henne or Breaston deserves more of the blame. Henne can't make that throw, but Breaston also has to get underneath the defense on a slant and not let them jump it. Either way it was a horrible play. But realistically, the offense did whatever they wanted on Saturday rolling up 507 yards from scrimmage and averaging an insane 7.1 yards per play. Ball State sure was a nice way to get the offense healthy.

Defense
A tale of two defenses played out on Saturday. The first stringers ate Ball State for lunch as expected allowing well under 200 yards of total offense and only 3 points. The second stringers? Yikes. Burnt toast. Johnny Sears and Charles Stewart each managed to get burnt deep once leading to a TD. Sears got torched on a 54 yard touchdown catch and Stewart got lit up on a 62 yard catch that got BSU inside the 5 and lead to another TD. Those 2 plays were the difference between a blowout and a close game. It's a little strange that Carr and co. went to the backups with so much time left and it's even more disturbing that they sucked so badly. But does that somehow make the starting defense look worse? Hardly. The only thing it could mean trouble for is the 2007 Michigan defense.

Really, the game was quite simple to describe. Michigan dominated most of the game, but BSU made 4 big plays leading to 23 points that made it very interesting.

1) Mike Hart's fumble for a safety - like El Nino, Hart fumbling does not come around every year. Opponents should enjoy it while they can. Does anyone honestly expect this to happen against OSU?

2) Chad Henne's pick 6 - horrible pass and I am splitting blame 50/50 at this point between he and Breaston for reasons listed above. Henne has been very stingy with the INTs this year, so unless this becomes a trend I'm not very worried. The only play remotely similar to this all year was the pick against Notre Dame on the first drive that hit the ND safety in the numbers and got returned inside the 5.

3) Johnny Sears getting burned - he's the #5 CB on the team behind Hall, Trent, Harrison, and Stewart so he won't be playing against OSU much at all. I've got high hopes for him in the future, but he's a redshirt freshman right now with almost no experience.

4) Charles Stewart getting burned - he's the #4 CB on the team and the fact that he actually started 2 games when Trent was injured scares me somewhat. He is slow as crap and would be better suited to SS with his physical play. Fortunately, he also will not be playing much against OSU.

And that's basically it. Mike Hart and Brandon Minor and Jerome Jackson did as they pleased with the ball racking up insane numbers. Kevin Grady sat with a shoulder injury and was unable to pad his stats like the rest of the backs. Mario Manningham is back and will start next week. Tyler Ecker and Mike Massey both could've played and should play next week which is great news for the OSU game when we will get back to having 3 quality TEs instead of 1 that is a freshman.

In summary, the final score was ugly. That's about all you can take from the game, however, as Michigan's first string offense and defense were steamrolling Ball State.

Lloyd Carr versus The Nation (and BSU)

2006-11-03T21:25:00.000-05:00

As of Friday, November 3rd, here are the winningest college football programs in the country since Lloyd Carr took over at Michigan for the 1995 season. Listed is their overall record along with winning percentage and number of national titles over that time span.

1) Ohio State: 116-30, 79.5%, 1
2) Florida St: 114-32, 78.1%, 1
3) Tennessee: 113-32, 77.9%, 1
4) Texas: 114-33-1, 77.4%, 1
5) Miami: 109-32, 77.3%, 1
6) Nebraska: 114-34, 77.0%, 2
7) Florida: 113-34, 76.9%, 1
8) Michigan: 111-34, 76.6%, 1
9) Virginia Tech: 111-34, 76.6%, 0

Nobody else is even close to the top 9 in terms of winning percentage. As you can see, when it comes to winning games and winning national titles, Michigan has been as good as anybody since Lloyd Carr took over with less than 3 wins per 100 games separating them from #1 on the list.

Anyways, on to Ball State. They suck. Based on all the repeated criticisms of Michigan for their "close" 14 point win over Northwestern last week expect them to open it up just a bit more in the first half this week. It also helps that Mario Manningham is back and they'll try to get him a ball or two to get his timing back.

Look for more heavy doses of Kevin Grady, Brandon Minor, and Jerome Jackson today as they run, run, and run some more in the 2nd half. Carlos Brown might even get some plays if we're lucky. Ball State has a good passing game, but their OL has never blocked what Michigan will throw at them today.

Best guess at a score? How about 34-10. I don't think the weather will be nearly as bad this week as it was last week.

2006 BTPR, week 9

2006-11-03T21:13:00.000-05:00

All work and no play make Homer something, something. Go Crazy? Don't mind if I do!

Way, way, way, way, way too much work this week. I think my conference power ratings have to stay the same for another week, however, because the higher ranked teams just keep on winning every game. Hopefully I don't close out the year with these same rankings.

1) Ohio State
2) Michigan

3) Wisconsin - these first 3 are getting boring

4) Penn State - nice shutout of the Boilers and they get a crack at #3 this week
5) Iowa - not a good team without Drew Tate
6) Purdue - blah

7) Minnesota
8) Indiana - will fight for #7 this week
9) Michigan State

10) Illinois
11) Northwestern

I'll see if I can't swing a preview of Ball State in the morning.

Hoop This

2006-10-31T17:38:00.000-05:00

We interrupt your previously scheduled Michigan football blogging to pass along a reminder. It's The Return of The Wonk! Big Ten Wonk is back in action on Wednesday. He'll have an opening day Festivus (for the rest of us) followed by Alphabetically Sensitive Preseason Walk Arounds (ASPWAs) for each team. You guessed it, they are in alphabetical order. Michigan is due to hit the bookstands on November 7th so stay tuned.

But seriously, the dude knows hoops. He has been more than doing his part to shed light on tempo-free stats and the like. If you think rebounds per game is a great stat to measure rebounding prowess by, please read up on Wonk and get your act together! Unfortunately, Michigan has sucked during his reign. I refuse to do much of a preview on Michigan basketball this year, but I'll get into those reasons in a month or so with my "not a preview" preview. Until then, please get your fill from Wonk.

I'd also be remiss to mention that I'll have some thoughts on the World Series and the Tigers offseason in a few weeks. It's just that they played like such crap it isn't worth my time right now and I'm thankfully far more interested in college football right now with Michigan's fantabulous season. But fear not, I will get to it.

This is Way Too Good to Miss

2006-10-30T19:45:00.000-05:00

In the spirit of TOO EARLY Ohio State stuff, check out this preview of The Game. It is one hell of a nice read done in a position by position matchup style preview. Sure there are some parts here or there that I would disagree with, but it is funny as hell. Some snippets...

Defensive line: Whirling vortex of horror vs. rampaging hordes of unholy might. Both groups are quite, quite good. Michigan, however, has the clear edge here. They average something absurd like 7'3" and 545 pounds across the line (slight exaggerations) and knocked 2 of Penn State's innocent QBs out of the game with a blitzkrieg of sacks and flattenings that made Poland shudder. Smith's mobility at QB will probably help mitigate UM's bloodlust, but it will be tough to run against them. Edge: Michigan.

Carr, on the other hand, is your run-of-the-mill crotchety grandpa type, the one who keeps all the balls you hit over his fence in a big garbage bag labeled "Jason's toys he'll never ever get back ever even after I die so help me God won't someone teach these kids some respect, consarn it?" Tressel is suspected by many detractors and non-Buckeye partisans of cheating or using unholy magic, basically because he's really good at the two things Ohio State is notoriously bad at: beating Michigan and winning bowl games. I dismiss the notion that Tressel is "in Carr's head", however. Both men have, in all likelihood, killed men with their bare hands and enjoyed it.

Great writing even though most of his stuff appears to have almost nothing to do with sports. Perusing his site it looks like he is from Cleveland which would explain the fascination with The Game. At least he had the good sense to get out of Ohio.

College Football Thoughts and Musings

2006-10-30T16:02:00.000-05:00

Quite a weekend of college football, though Michigan didn't have much to write about. The Trojans were denied by the Beavers, West Virginia and Louisville are looking ahead to Thursday night's showdown, Ohio State rolled on. Some thoughts...

West Virginia - yes, I get it. You are now up to number 3 in the BCS with USC's long regular season winning streak snapped. You are playing Louisville in a battle of unbeatens that very well might be a national semifinal of sorts along with the Michigan-Ohio State game. But please, spare me the no respect card. West Virginia just hasn't proven anything this year. They are 7-0 against simply putrid competition. What kind of a non conference schedule is this? Marshall, Eastern Washington, Maryland, Eastern Carolina, and Mississippi State? Yes, Steve Slaton is a phenomenal talent and Pat White can make plays. Do not, however, try to tell me that West Virginia would put up numbers against a team that can stop the run. But what about the Sugar Bowl against Georgia? Yeah, I saw it. I saw WVU get up 28-0 in a hurry and then hang on for dear life only scoring 10 points in the last 44 minutes and 10 seconds of the game against the crappy 52nd ranked rushing defense of Georgia. The Bulldogs rushing D was bad last year and they had a horrible matchup with West Virginia. The Mountaineers exploited it and got a big lead and held on for the W. Congrats. However, that was last year. And as relatively unimpressed as I am, it still counts for squat this year. West Virginia very well could be one of the top five teams in the country. However, they have done nothing that 35 other teams in the country couldn't do against their schedule so far. I'm praying that Michigan meets West Virginia in a bowl game.
Michigan - That was one ugly 17-3 win over Northwestern. Do you think Lloyd liked it? Check out this quote from his press conference today: "I love that kind of game Saturday. I love that environment. I think you find out a lot about your team. I'm not concerned in terms of margins, point spreads. In most cases I don't even know them." I swear he's happier playing a close low scoring game against a bad team than he is if they would've won 42-0. And the playcalling shows it when Michigan runs the same play over and over and over and refuses to test the other team deep. Is it that they are saving something for OSU, or do Carr/DeBord just prefer to win a game by running it on nearly every play? I'll bet on the latter.
Mike DeBord - hmmm, is he really the brains behind Lloyd Carr's operation? He was offensive coordinator for 1997 to 1999 during which time Michigan went 12-0, 10-3, and 10-2. Now he's back calling the plays this year and Michigan is 9-0 and counting. Some people say he is the beneficiary of having great defenses backing him up (I'm looking at you Brian), but I say no way. Michigan's defense gave up more points in 1999 than they did in 2005, yet Michigan managed to go 10-2 in 1999 compared to 7-5 in 2005. 1998's defense wasn't spectacular either. Michigan with DeBord calling the plays managed to go 20-5 over 1998 and 1999 which is the best two year stretch since the mid 1980s not counting the 1997 season. Doesn't he deserve at least a little credit? I mean his offense is a defense's best friend (not to mention Lloyd's best friend). He emphasizes rushing the football, minimizing turnovers, and time of possession. He makes it easy on a defense by not putting them behind the eight ball. It says something that Michigan is 38-0 when the defense holds the opponent under 30 points with DeBord calling the plays. Any takers on whether Ohio State will be over or under 30 this year? I tend to disagree with some of the boring, predictable methods of DeBord's offense. However, he has shown a willingness to open up the gameplan in big games and is not afraid to do so on the road. Think about it. Over the last decade of Michigan football, which big road games did the offensive gameplan make you go WOW and which ones made you cringe. 1997 Penn State? 1999 Penn State? 2000 Orange Bowl against Alabama? 2006 Notre Dame? Not too shabby in those games. Now how about 2000 Purdue? 2002 or 2004 Notre Dame? 2003 Iowa or Oregon? The more you look at it IMHO, the more DeBord looks like a genius when it comes to winning games. Is he the reason Michigan is 9-0 this year and went 12-0 in 1997? No. But he's a part of it. His offense helps the defense out. And the fact that Michigan had successful seasons in 1998 and 1999 despite defenses that were as bad as anything from 2000-2005 shows me that it isn't just the defense.

9-0 v 9-0

2006-10-29T08:45:00.000-05:00

We have now officially moved up to the TOO EARLY Ohio State segments of blogging.

Quite a contrast in styles yesterday. Michigan beat Northwestern 17-3 in cold (<> 50 mph gusts) conditions in a game that can best be described as ugly. Ohio State had a little better conditions and hammered Minnesota in every facet of the game winning 44-0. Style points awarded to Ohio State.

But does it matter? Did Michigan even try on offense? I'll argue that they didn't. They played without Mario Manningham, Tyler Ecker, Rueben Riley, Mike Massey, and Adrian Arrington sat on the sidelines for most of the game. The conditions were brutal and all they tried to do was run. Northwestern knew this but still couldn't stop it, merely slowing them enough to hold them to 202 yards on the ground. That's the third time in the last 5 games they've topped 200 on the ground for those keeping track at home. Northwestern played an 8 man front the entire game and Michigan plunged right into it. Henne was 10/20 on the day, but was betrayed by Steve Breaston's hands at least once or twice.

Ohio State was brutally efficient yesterday. They scored in every quarter. They ran the ball for 266 yards, threw for 218 yards, and flat out beat up Minnesota's offense holding them to 182 yards on the day. If you care to peruse the Buckeye's numbers this year, you might notice that Penn State is the only Big Ten team to hold them under 38 points this year (28 for that game), though you might remember that 14 points in that game were off late "pick 6s" by the Buckeye defense. But they have been shredding Big Ten opponents this year. 38 points at Iowa, 38 at MSU, 44 points against Indiana, 44 against Minnesota. Michigan's defense will certainly have their work cut out for them against a Buckeye offense that is rolling.

We are now less than 3 weeks away from perhaps the Biggest Regular Season Game in the History of College Football.

Mmmmmmm, Northwestern

2006-10-26T19:03:00.000-04:00

Those wildcats are a tasty cupcake lined up for Michigan this week. Gotta wonder, though, exactly which Northwestern team will show up. Will it be the team that thundered out to a 38-3 lead on Michigan State? Or will it be the group that staggered and fell allowing Michigan State to score 38 unanswered points in the 2nd half? Or will it be some combination thereof?

What is certain is that Northwestern sucks this year. They got a nice 21-3 win at Miami (OH) to start the season on the emotion of Randy Walker's death and a return to his former school. Since then? Just 1-6 with some bad losses. Their only win since the first week was a nailbiter over Eastern Michigan. Their offense sucks (94th in total offense, 103rd in scoring offense). Their defense sucks (93rd in total defense, 90th in scoring defense).

It seems like the only drama surrounding this game is off the field. When will Mario Manningham be back? What's going on with Adrian Arrington? How crazy are the cops in Columbus as it relates to Prescott Burgess? How much longer until the Ohio State game?

Is there any doubt about the outcome of this week's game? Not really. I wish I could get fired up about it, but I can't. Northwestern's offense is in for a world of hurt and their defense is just overmatched.

Predictions?

Impossible to say. Carr will definitely call off the dogs early, but will it even matter? The only way Northwestern keeps it close is if they stack the line and tackle well because Michigan is going heavy on the ground this game. Kevin Grady, Brandon Minor, and Jerome Jackson will get a workout as they seek to avoid overworking Mike Hart again. I'll say Michigan 38, Northwestern 10.

How Ohio State got to 8-0 (AKA How Stella Got Her Groove Back)

2006-10-25T07:00:00.000-04:00

The Buckeyes are 8-0 and nearly unanimous (except for 2 dorks in California - Scott Wolf I'm talking to you) at number 1. How'd they do it? Well, let's leave out last year's thrashing of Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl that gave them some preseason love this year.

Ohio State has outscored their opponents 34.9-8.3 so far this year. They rank #20 in total offense, #11 in scoring offense, #15 in total defense, and #1 in scoring defense nationally. Why are their scoring numbers so much better than their total numbers (on both sides)? Probably because they are #4 nationally in turover margin.

Who have they beaten? Here's a rundown of their opponents along with that opponents national ranks in total o, scoring o, total d, and scoring d...

Northern Illinois - 18, 24, 100, 71
@Texas - 27, 4, 14, 15
Cincinnati - 85, 100, 55, 54
Penn State - 53, 59, 39, 40
@Iowa - 28, 45, 57, 38
Bowling Green - 54, 87, 54, 99
@Michigan State - 26, 29, 81, 93
Indiana - 93, 68, 107, 105

As you can see, Texas is far and away the best team they have played this year. Iowa is probably the 2nd toughest (they played both of those on the road). Other than that? Probably Penn State next and then not much else (aside from Michigan State's offense). Indiana, BGSU, and Cincinnati are all brutal. Northern Illinois isn't exactly good considering the competition they play.

What does it all mean? Nothing. Just that it's never too early for WAY TOO EARLY looks at Ohio State. I mean what the hell other game should I be worried about at this point?

2006 BTPR, week 8

2006-10-24T07:00:00.000-04:00

Well, last week's rankings worked out pretty good with the higher ranked team winning every game. Let's keep it the same this week.

1) Ohio State
2) Michigan - it's lonely at the top for these 2

3) Wisconsin - still the king of the midgets as the drop from #3 to #4 is large

4) Penn State - not too impressive over Illinois, but a win is a win
5) Iowa - hung tough for a little while as expected in Ann Arbor
6) Purdue - nothing special against the Badgers

7) Minnesota
8) Indiana
9) Michigan State - largest comeback win of all time that begs the question, how the hell can you fall behind by 35 points to Northwestern?

10) Illinois
11) Northwestern - soon to be cupcake #1 on the Wolverines road to Columbus

We'll see if it can hold true for another week. Tomorrow we will return to some gratuitous WAY TOO EARLY Ohio State related preview type stuff.

Rushing Defense, what does it mean?

2006-10-23T07:00:00.000-04:00

Michigan has a great rushing defense this year. Yeah, yeah, we all know they rank 1st nationally against the rush. What's the average at now? Something like 33 yards per game allowed? Yowza. But what does that mean? Here's a little table going back a few years detailing the national leaders in rushing defense and the rank of the national champions that year in rushing defense.

2000: #1 Memphis - 73 ypg, 2.3 ypc; #23 Oklahoma - 108 ypg, 3.2 ypc
2001: #1 UAB - 57 ypg, 1.9 ypc; #40 Miami - 133 ypg, 3.1 ypc
2002: #1 TCU - 65 ypg, 2.0 ypc; #3 Ohio State - 78 ypg, 2.6 ypc
2003: #1 USC - 60 ypg, 1.8 ypc; #3 LSU - 67 ypg, 2.4 ypc (USC and LSU split title)
2004: #1 USC - 79 ypg, 2.6 ypc; #1 USC
2005: #1 Ohio State - 73 ypg, 2.4 ypc; #33 Texas - 131 ypg, 3.7 ypc

As you can see, 3 of the last 4 national titles have been won by teams ranking in the top 3 nationally in rushing defense.

How does Michigan stack up this year so far? 33.6 yards per game allowed and 1.4 yards per carry allowed. Both would be the best by far this century in college football. I'd be interested in going back decades and seeing how that number would stack up (if it holds up).

The Mission

2006-10-22T14:56:00.000-04:00

Your mission, Ron, should you choose to accept it: Contain the most dynamic and dangerous player in the country.

I expect you will spend the next 4 weeks preparing your defense to follow your mantra of Playing Hard and Playing Fast.

Sense a pattern here?

Breath a Deep Sigh of Relief

2006-10-22T12:49:00.000-04:00

It's over. That whole stretch of games where people said, get back to me after the Iowa game, is done with. Michigan ran through 6 straight losable games and won all of them to get to 8-0. All that is left is Northwestern, Ball State, and Indiana before heading to Columbus. You could not have hoped for more as a Michigan fan with only 1 game this year being decided by less than 14 points. Raise your hand if you think Michigan is pretty damn good...

This week, I'll officially move to WAY TOO EARLY Ohio State previews. This will be followed by TOO EARLY and EARLY Ohio State previews as The Game draws near.

Game 1

2006-10-21T09:57:00.000-04:00

After a week of partying and celebrating the Tiger's first pennant in 22 years, it's back to business tonight as two of the most storied franchises in baseball history square off for the third time in the World Series. St. Louis will be looking for revenge from 1968 when the Tigers took an epic game 7 by beating Bob Gibson in his prime. They will also be looking for revenge from earlier this year when Detroit swept St. Louis over a 3 game series in Detroit (10-6, 7-6, and 4-1).

Check out The Detroit Tiger Weblog for the best Tiger blogging around.

Or head to Deadspin for the most popular sports blog that happens to be written by a Cardinals fan.

Tonight we will get a chance to see if the Tigers are rusty with not having played since 1 week ago. We'll also get our first crack at the AL vs NL thing since the Junior Circuit spanked the Senior Circuit all over the field in Interleague play this year. Detroit was one of those teams that dominated the NL (along with the Twins, White Sox, and Red Sox) going 15-3 against the NL Central this year. Who won the NL Central? The Cardinals. Yep, Detroit dominated the Cards division this year.

I'm not into making predictions and it is nice to see all the love the Tigers are getting from national pundits this week, but I'm not buying the hype. These are the same people that said the Yankees would steamroll Detroit so let's just see how it plays out on the field. I'm just hoping to get at least one peek this week at Albert Pujols vs Joel Zumaya.

Thoughts on Iowa

2006-10-19T21:47:00.000-04:00

(preseason)Iowa will be a very tough game. They always play us tough. They have a great quarterback. Their D will be solid. They have a great coach. (/preseason)

Yikes, what the hell happened to the Hawkeyes? Sure, injuries hurt. But they just lost to freakin' Indiana! They got steamrolled at home by Ohio State and while Ohio State is the best team in the country, they aren't that good.

I'm truly torn looking at this game. Part of me sees the Iowa that has played Michigan very tough under Ferentz. Hell, that same part remembers the epic battles between Bo and Hayden Frye in the 1980s. Then again, Michigan is rolling right now. The game is at home. Iowa is reeling. There is little objective evidence this year that Iowa can keep it close in Ann Arbor.

So what to expect? Drew Tate will have a good game and will frustrate the defense. He can move around the pocket and can keep the play alive giving his receivers way too much time to get open. But he'll also make some mistakes giving Michigan field position. Michigan's offense should be able to establish a pretty solid ground game against Iowa and Henne will have open targets if the OL gives him time. This game might be similar to the Wisconsin game where it is close for a little while before Michigan pulls away in the 2nd half.

I'll guess Michigan wins 31-13 and guys like Kevin Grady and Brandon Minor get some nice work at TB.

2006 BTPR, week 7

2006-10-18T20:46:00.000-04:00

1) Ohio State - another boring week atop the college football world for the Buckeyes
2) Michigan - convincing win in a tough environment have cemented Michigan as the number 1 challenger to the Ohio State coronation

3) Wisconsin - and then there was one. Losses by Iowa and Penn State leave Wisconsin as king of the munchkins behind the Big 2

4) Penn State - well, they've lost to #1 Ohio State, #2 Michigan, and #8/10 Notre Dame. Other than that they have beaten lesser opponents.
5) Iowa - Indiana? Yikes. If they don't have a good game in Ann Arbor they are dropping
6) Purdue - missing Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule helps their record

7) Minnesota - the Gophers have started their 2nd half slide into mediocrity a little early this year
8) Indiana - Nice victory over the Hawkeyes propels them above MSU for this week
9) Michigan State - pucker, pucker, pucker

10) Illinois - Ohio? Man, they suck.
11) Northwestern - putting them behind Illinois tells you how bad they are

Big 2 and Little 9, huh? Looks like a home game for Michigan this week against a reeling Iowa Hawkeye team is all that stands between a November showdown of undefeated Big Ten behemoths in Columbus. It's been over 30 years since these 2 powers sat so far ahead of the rest of the conference (and ahead of the country).

Magg-nificent

2006-10-17T19:23:00.000-04:00

The Shot Heard Round Detroit launched the Tigers into the World Series and set off an epic night of partying in Motown. Can it get any better than this? Well, barring any more rain outs in the NLCS we'll get a look at the World Series.

It's time to party like it's 1984!

Fallout from Michigan win over Penn State

2006-10-16T19:50:00.000-04:00

In my post Tigers victory party, hungover next morning, viewing of the Michigan game I noticed a few things.

1) The defense is really good. Yeah, it's getting to be redundant. But when you hold Penn State to their lowest rushing total of the Paterno era that is saying something because that dude has been around for decades. And in what is getting to be a mildly annoying trend, the defense once again surrendered some points in garbage time to make the final score closer than you'd think from watching the game. As it stands, I can live with 5 minutes of mortalness in exchange for 55 minutes of fire breathing domination.

2) Chad Henne is really good. Not spectacular, but the kid did exactly what he needed to do to win on the road in front of fans that would rather see him castrated.

3) Mike Hart is really, really good. Pencil him in for 100+ yards and a big 4th quarter every week when Michigan puts the game away.

4) Iowa lost to Indiana? Not from the Michigan game, but what the hell was that??? Will the Kirk Ferentz worship take a pause after this season?

5) Adrian Arrington is a big time receiver. It's almost a shame that he spent most of the year playing in Mario Manningham's shadow because this kid is a star in the making. He's big and fast and knows how to catch the ball. Did I mention that like Manningham, he still has 2 more years of eligibility? I can't remember the last time Michigan had 2 sophomore receivers this good.

6) Alan Branch and LaMarr Woodley are bad, bad men.

7) Ron English for President.

8) Zoltan Mesko for Space Emporer (of Space). Don't deny that you saw Mike Hart flashing the Z for Zoltan handsign after his touchdown and you thought it was cool as hell.

T-I-G-E-R-S

2006-10-13T16:05:00.000-04:00

Just 30 minutes away from the first pitch in Detroit as the Tigers have 3 games in a row at home already up 2-0 in the ALCS. Today it is the ageless wonder Kenny Rogers against the still recovering Rich Harden. Tomorrow pits Jeremy Bonderman against Danny Haren.

I have no idea what is in the water in Detroit right now, but Jim Leyland is pushing all the right buttons. Let's hope it continues.

Penn State Preview

2006-10-12T19:42:00.000-04:00

Yeah, yeah, it's almost Christmas Eve on Blue and White Illustrated and the few loony PSU fans that ruin the perfectly good reputation of Penn State fans (cough, cough, MarshCreekEagle, cough, cough). You know, that time of year when they can really step up the conspiracy theories and hope that their team doesn't drop a deuce against Michigan again. What's it been now? 10 years since the last Penn State victory over Michigan? Man, that's a long time. You know at some point Penn State will overcome it to win, but is this really the year? Michigan has better coaches and more talent. The game is at Penn State, but playing on the road hasn't slowed down this Michigan team yet going to South Bend and Minneapolis for easy wins.

Did I say road games at Notre Dame and Minnesota? Yep, those are the only 2 common opponents between Penn State and Michigan and the results couldn't be more different. Notre Dame - Michigan smoked 'em and Penn State bent over and took it from the Irish. Minnesota - Michigan coasted to an easy victory while the Nittany Lions needed a generous PI call on 4th down in OT to avoid losing.

How do the teams stack up statistically?

Michigan ground game
The Wolverines rank #1 in the Big Ten and #17 nationally in rushing offense at 196 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. A lot of this has come in garbage time when Michigan is running out the clock by just pounding it into 8 man fronts. Penn State is #14 nationally in rushing defense surrendering only 80 yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry. Expect Michigan to go for somewhere around 150 as a team and 4 per carry as Michigan might focus more on rushing earlier in the game instead of just waiting until the game is out of hand.

Michigan passing game
Mario Manningham will not be playing. That's the bad news. The good news? Michigan currently ranks #13 nationally in pass efficiency and Chad Henne has been throwing strikes all over the field. Adrian Arrington and Steve Breaston will be relied upon heavily to carry the load at WR. Greg Mathews and Carl Tabb will vie for PT at the #3 WR spot. Look for a big game from the TEs, though. Tyler Ecker might be back and Massey and Carson Butler are more than capable of exploiting a Penn State LB crew that struggles to cover the deep middle of the field. Penn State only ranks #47 nationally in pass efficiency defense and just got torched by Brian Cupito last week to the tune of nearly 350 yards passing. Read that again. Brian Cupito. If Manningham was playing, you'd expect this to get ugly. As it stands, Michigan will move the chains regularly via the pass. Look for a big game from Chad Henne.

Penn State ground game
Penn State has been solid on the ground this year ranking #20 nationally at 191 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Lots of damage against some pretty bad opponents, though. Tony Hunt is the ultimate solid but not spectacular back. Michigan still ranks #1 nationally in rushing defense surrounding a mere 40 yards per game and 1.7 yards per carry. If Penn State thought they had a solid rushing D, Michigan is flat out nasty and has played better competition (did you see what they did to PJ Hill?). Expect Penn State to struggle to run the ball. I'll be surprised if they get 100 as a team for the game and they'll be under 3 yards per carry.

Penn State passing game
Anthony Morelli has lead his team to the #83 ranking nationally in passing efficiency this year. Yikes. That's not good for a junior. How in the heck are he and Chad Henne in the same class? Do they teach quarterbacking in State College? Did he honestly pass up a chance to go to Pitt to play in this offense? Michigan has been solid against the pass this year ranking 25th nationally in passing effiency defense. Morelli will struggle if Michigan can bring the heat with their pass rush.

Special teams
Neither team has been great in special teams this year. Gotta give a slight edge to Michigan, though. Zoltan Mesko is really starting to flash his cannon leg at punter and Garrett Rivas is ugly but effective with his FGs. Then you've got the record setting Steve Breaston as a returner. He hasn't broken one yet this year, so look out.

Predictions? Geez, this is hard. I want to say this is going to be a very difficult game for Michigan. I mean those Penn State fans will be out for blood against the team that has owned them for a decade. It's at night. etc. Whatever. The left side of my brain looks at this completely differently. Fact: Michigan has a better rushing attack. Fact: Michigan has a better passing game. Fact: Michigan has a better rushing defense. Fact: Michigan has a better passing defense.

Penn State is really going to have to play above their heads to win this one. Either that or come up big in the turnover margin. Did I mention that Michigan is 6th nationally in turnover margin and Penn State is 73rd? Ouch!

I'll give Penn State a little benefit of the doubt for hanging close with the Buckeyes in a rainstorm in Columbus.

Michigan 27, Penn State 17

2006 BTPR, week 6

2006-10-11T18:10:00.000-04:00

1) Ohio State - ho hum as they keep rolling
2) Michigan - rolled past Michigan State, but might be without Manningham for a while

3) Wisconsin - dominating crappy teams like they should, but still no good wins
4) Penn State - needed OT against Minnesota and still no good victories
5) Iowa - nice bounce back W over Purdue

6) Purdue - they have a nice passing game
7) Minnesota - they have a nice all around offense
8) Michigan State - they have a funny coach

9) Indiana - with a win over Illinois, they are the tallest midget this week
10) Illinois - a fall from grace after their win over MSU 2 weeks ago
11) Northwestern - Randy Walker must have been a miracle worker

The Rant

2006-10-10T09:40:00.000-04:00

I didn't want to do it. I was saving this up for the offseason. The time, however, has arrived. Baseball is the ultimate game of statistics. It's a series of individual matchups between pitcher and catcher that can be nearly completely explained in numbers. Hits, walks, doubles, homers, GIDPs, HBPs, RBI, runs, wild pitches, strikes, balls, pop ups, line drives, errors, etc. It's all out there and somebody is keeping track of it.

When I was growing up, the measure of a hitter boiled down to a few things that were easy to measure and easy to understand. Batting average. It didn't get much simpler than that. The best hitters had the highest batting averages. Number of hits divided by number of at bats. Simple math for even a kid to figure out and it looked great on the back of a baseball card. Home runs. Those were the power hitters. 50 was a magic number back then. RBI. The clutch hitters. They didn't necessarily need the home runs or the high batting average, they got the job done when it mattered. They were the guys you wanted up with the game on the line. These were the numbers that stood the test of time and were cited as evidence of greatness for decades. Pitchers had similar numbers. Wins and losses. Those were the guys that knew how to get the job done. They might give up some runs here or there, but when it mattered they could buckle down and get the win. ERA. These guys didn't even let you score. The best pitchers always had the best record and the best ERA. Hall of Fame credentials? 3000 hits. 500 Home runs. 300 wins. Everybody knew.

Those are the numbers I grew up with. Those were the things I kept track of on baseball cards.

And then a funny thing happened. Some really smart people started looking at numbers. Bill James is widely considered the godfather of it, but he wasn't the first. It started in the 1920s and 1930s, but remained on the fringe. They started coming up with new ways of quantifying a players contribution to his team. Terms like On Base Percentage (OBP), Slugging Percentage (SLG), Strikeout rate (K/9 IP), Walk rate (BB/9 IP), and a whole host of others started getting tossed around. They used math and computers to analyze teams and see what made them good, bad, or in between. They started tracking statistics to see which ones predicted future performance and which ones seemed to be random from year to year. They made hypotheses and tested them. They turned the analysis of baseball into a science.

The backlash. You're telling me a bunch of number crunching geeks no more about baseball than legends that have been part of the game for decades? Not necessarily. It's just that the human mind is easily fooled by perceptions and habits. Teams won championships and lost heartbreakers and made comebacks and folded under pressure for a long, long time. Clutch hitters came and went. Managers made the same decisions with the same rationale for a century. .300 hitters are great. A pitcher with 20 wins was great. That's the way it was and that's the way it was going to be.

Change is hard. It's difficult to admit to yourself that the way that you used to see things just isn't right. I was wrong? Yep. But I've listened to some of the smartest men in baseball tell me that, they can't all be wrong can they? I think a little quote from the Matrix is apt here. "You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes."

So how far exactly does this rabbit hole go? Let's start with hitters. Batting average has probably been the most widely cited statistic in the past 100 years. But why? It's supposed to tell you how good somebody is at getting hits. What's so special about a hit? It gets you on base. It moves the runners along. Wouldn't it be interesting to look at On Base Percentage as being more meaningful? I mean a walk is almost as good as a hit right? Well, not exactly. Sometimes hits go for extra bases. Sometimes hits drive in a runner from 2nd base. I hear you, but let's leave the extra base hits for later. Back to batting average. Why doesn't it matter? Well, let's go back to that .300 hitter. He's been lauded for years. But what has he really done? Is getting a single 3 times out of 10 at bats really a great performance? I'm going to say no. Not when there are other players that can get a "hit" slightly less frequently but make a much, much bigger impact on the offense. Rationally I think we can all agree that a single, double, triple, and home run are not equally valuable. So why should we treat them equally? On Base Percentage simply takes the number of times a player reaches base (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch) and divides it by the number of times a player came up to the plate (At Bats + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Sac Flies) and it simply gives a measure of how frequently a player was successful in reaching base, or in more important terms how often he avoids making an out.

Yeah, yeah, OBP is important. But so what? It still doesn't take into account lots of what hitters do. Well, if they don't just get on base, what do they do? They hit the ball hard or soft. This brings us to Slugging Percentage. What is it? Simply put it's the number of total bases a player gets divided by number of at bats. That's (Singles + 2xDoubles + 3xTriples + 4xHomers) divided by At Bats. It is basically a measure of what a player does when he gets a hit, with the understanding that not all hits are created equal. Not unsurprisingly it favors players that hit the ball hard.

OK, I get the point. But what about things like RBI? The run producers. The guys that win games. Let's start with a basic premise I think everybody can agree on. When a run is scored (aside from a home run), credit goes to 2 players. One player got on base and the other knocked him home. The relative credit for any run depends on the situation. Driving in a runner from 3rd with nobody out is just a tad easier than driving in a runner from 1st with 2 outs, correct? Another thing to keep in mind is that different hitters will have a different number of RBI opportunities over a season. Alex Rodriguez hit cleanup for the best lineup in the majors this past season. He had guys on base all time time. In fact, in the span of 572 at bats this year he lead the majors with 534 runners on base. ARod managed to drive in those runners 86 times. He also knocked himself in 35 times on HRs. Curtis Granderson? He didn't have quite the same luxury as ARod. He got to bat leadoff for the free swinging Tigers. How many RBI chances did he have? Curtis managed to have 596 at abats this year and only came to the plate with 338 runners on base. He managed to knock them in 49 times (plus himself 19 times on HRs). Alex Rodriguez finished the season with nearly twice as many RBI as Curtis Granderson, yet they were nearly identical in terms of knocking in the runners that were on base for them. Interesting, wouldn't you say?

Let's take a look at some examples of players over 600 plate appearances. Player A will be the .315 hitter with a little bit of power. Player B will be more in the .275 range with his batting average, but draws some walks and hits for some power.

Player A (in 600 plate appearances)
570 at bats
30 walks
144 singles
18 home runs
18 doubles

Player B (in 600 plate appearances)
530 at bats
70 walks
85 singles
24 home runs
36 doubles

Player A hit .316 with a little bit of pop. Player B hit .274 with more walks and somewhat more power. But let's take a look at what they look like in terms of on base percentage and slugging percentage.

Player A: OBP - .350, SLG - .442
Player B: OBP - .358, SLG - .477

Interesting, huh? Player A is a much better hitter based on batting average. Player B has a little bit more power and draws a few more walks, but it more than makes up for the batting average difference in both OBP and SLG. But what does that mean? Who cares? The ultimate goal of finding new statistics to analyze baseball performance is to better understand a player's contribution to his team. When it comes to hitting, how many more runs does he help his team score than somebody else would?

Let's step back to team statistics for a moment, shall we? Wouldn't it be interesting to see a comparison of Team Batting Average and compare it to Team On Base Percentage and see how it relates to how many runs teams score? What follow is a list of the top 5 and bottom 5 teams in MLB in runs scored this year along with their team ranks in OBP and BA.

Rank in Runs Scored - TEAM -----Rank in BA - Rank in OBP
1) Yankees - 1st - 2nd
2) Indians - 3rd - 4th
3) White Sox - 8th - 5th
4) Phillies - 6th - 18th
5) Braves - 15th - 13th
26) Padres - 20th - 23rd
27) Brewers - 25th - 27th
28) Cubs - 29th - 17th
29) Pirates - 26th - 22nd
30) Devil Rays - 30th - 30th

Pretty close correlation, but not perfect. Most teams have an OBP and BA that are pretty close. The only outliers were the Cubs that were an average team in BA, but 2nd to last in OBP. And they ended up with the 3rd worst offense in the league. The Phillies were the other way. Their batting average was worse than the Cubs, but their OBP was 6th best in the league and helped power them to the 4th best offense in the majors. But OBP can't be the be all and end all can it? Funny you ask. OBP and SLG measure diametrically opposed parts of offensive production. Why not just combine them? That's where we get OPS (On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage). Simply add the 2 together to get a more complete picture of a player's offensive production. Let's do the same exercise as last time, except compare team rank in runs scored with team rank in OPS.

Rank in Runs Scored - TEAM --Rank in OPS
1) Yankees - 1st
2) Indians - 4th
3) White Sox - 3rd
4) Phillies - 5th
5) Braves - 6th
26) Padres - 23rd
27) Brewers - 24th
28) Cubs - 27th
29) Pirates - 30th
30) Devil Rays - 29th

Pretty cool, huh? The top 5 offenses in the majors all finished in the top 6 in OPS. The bottom 5 offenses in the majors all finished in the bottom 8 in OPS. It's actually a phenomenal correlation and it holds up year after year. In 2006, only 1 team scored more than 900 runs (Yankees) and they finished #1 in OPS. Another 12 teams scored at least 800 runs on the season and they all ranked from #2-13 in OPS. Another 15 teams scored at least 700 runs and they ranked from #14-28 in OPS. Only 2 teams failed to score 700 runs and they ranked #29 and #30 in the league in OPS. There isn't a single outlier from that. Did you know that only one offense scored more than 900 runs last year? Yep, the Red Sox finished #1 in the majors in OPS and runs in 2005.

Enough about offense for now. There are far, far, far more things you can get in to. Turns out that a better measure than OPS is to take OBP and raise it to a power of something like 1.20 and then add that to SLG because it turns out that OBP is a little more important than SLG. But it's all semantics once you accept that the things you used to think were important aren't any more. For example, you could take things like OPS and compare it to the home park a player plays in and adjust for a "park factor" that accounts for the difference between pre-humidor Coors Field and Comerica Park. Things like "Runs Created" or "Equivalent Average" are all variations of the same theme of taking into account every result of a player's at bats and quantifying them into how much they help his team.

Pitching you ask? What more could I need to know than wins, losses, ERA, saves, and strikeouts? That's how pitchers have gotten into the Hall of Fame since it was invented. That's how announcers have told me who the great ones were and that's how they got voted into the All Star game.

Let's start with Wins and Losses. I think it's pretty easy to accept the idea that a good deal of a pitcher's record can be accounted for by the team he plays on. If he's getting 9 runs a game in run support, he's going to win a lot of games. If he plays for the Pirates and his team is getting shut out all the time, it might be hard to win a game. It's also important to remember there is a huge variation within a team. Justin Verlander ranked #2 in the majors in run support this year at 6.8 runs per game while his teammate Nate Robertson ranked #67 in the majors at 4.5 runs per game. Small wonder that Verlander went 17-9 and Robertson was 13-13 despite nearly identical ERAs.

ERAs? What's wrong with them? Not much. It's a good stat for measuring how effectively a pitcher prevented runs from scoring. But it brings me to another major point about statistics. There are 2 kind of stats in my eyes. The first kind quantify what happened. The second kind are more of an indicator of an inate talent and they predict future performance better than the first kind. How does this relate to ERA? Well, the ultimate goal is to prevent runs from scoring right? How do you do that? Preventing hitters from reaching base would be a good start. There is a simple measure of how many batters a pitcher allows to reach base that is referred to as WHIP and it simply means (Walks + Hits)/(Innings Pitched). Would you believe that WHIP is a better predictor of a pitcher's future ERA than his ERA itself is? Yep. As you could imagine, there are lots of little bits of luck here and there over the course of a season that can impact ERA. WHIP is less impacted by luck and more indicative of a skill. I actually think ERA is a pretty good stat, but it's not the best that is out there and needs to be taken into context.

If you really want to start looking at pitching stats, take a wander into the land of DIPS. That's Defense Indepedent Pitching Stats. It operates under the assumption that to rate a pitcher you should only credit him for things he can control. For example, did the pitcher make a good pitch if the hitter hits a rocket line drive right at the 3rd baseman who happens to catch it? There is fairly good evidence that the only things a pitcher can control are his Strikeout Rate, Walk Rate, and HR allowed Rate. There is little to no ability to influence the opponents batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In other words, the pitcher controls what happens when the defense isn't involved on K's, BB's, and HR's. But all pitchers are the same on every other result from pop up to line drive to grounder and the only influence is a combination of luck and the skill of the fielders behind the pitcher. Now don't get me wrong, it isn't quite perfect. But it's damn close. And it really opens a can of worms when you look at traditional baseball thinking.

I could go on about things like clutch hitters and why that is an antiquated notion, but I'll save that for another day. You can take the blue pill and go back to believing whatever you want or you can take the red pill and see how far the rabbit hole goes. The choice is yours. It took me a while to come around on this myself.

ALCS Baby!

2006-10-09T20:12:00.000-04:00

Pardon the relative paucity of Michigan football content this week as I'll probably be just a tad involved in the ALCS, especially since I've got tickets to Game 3 and Game 4. Don't worry, though, I will get around to a few Michigan posts this week. But come on, how can you not be pumped about this?

How can you not love that celebration? I'm not sure if the players or the fans were having more fun. I don't think Little Leaguers have had the much fun at a pizza party after a game. Everybody in that stadium knew that the Tigers weren't supposed to make the playoffs. When they did everybody knew they were supposed to roll over for the mighty Yankees. All 19 of ESPN's "experts" picked the Tigers to lose in round 1 and they didn't even need 5 games. I'm of the belief that when it comes to watching a team win a championship, the journey is the fun part. You know what, I've had more fun watching the Tigers this year than any team I have ever rooted for. 1996 Packers? 3 Stanley Cup Champion Red Wings teams? 1997 Michigan football? 1996 and 1998 Michigan hockey? None of them compares to what this team has done this year. I don't care where they ride ends, it's been a thrill.

Up next? They head to Oakland for Game 1 of the ALCS. Detroit took the season series 5-4 but the stats were heavily in favor of Detroit mostly based on 2 blowouts. Want to get ready for the game? Here you go:

Cubs fans will be hard pressed to top that if/when the Cubs ever win the World Series again. And the fun part? It was the divisional series. It meant almost nothing, but at the same time it meant everything. The Tigers haven't won anything in the standings, but they won the respect of everybody. That series validated their entire magical season and the direction the franchise is heading. The Detroit Tigers are here and they are going to make some noise.

Game on!

Hey Drew!

2006-10-08T17:25:00.001-04:00

Congrats on a fine career against Michigan!

Pucker, Pucker, Pucker

2006-10-08T16:21:00.000-04:00

Yeah, if that was the least surprising game of the college football weekend I'm not sure what you've been watching the last few years. Michigan strolled past the Spartans 31-13. Let's recap, shall we?

Michigan State's stupid penalties? Check. They came through in fine form again yesterday. What was the final total? 11? I particularly liked some of the dumber ones, but it's hard to choose a favorite. Was it the late hit out of bounds on 3rd down about 3 seconds after an incomplete pass? Maybe it was the 3 or 4 times they jumped offsides when Henne backed out to call an audible. It's like asking who your favorite child is when discussing boneheaded MSU penalties.

Michigan State's "special" teams Check. Do they ride the short bus to school every day? The missed field goal was nice, but not quite as nice as when they decided to return the kickoff from the endzone after thinking about it for 3 or 4 seconds. I'll give them a free pass on the running into the punter penalty since it allowed us to watch Zoltan the Destroyer unleash a 64 yard bomb.

John L. Smith's "coaching" Check. Nice use of a challenge on Michigan's first touchdown. Your mastery of the system is something to be worshipped. Then again the way his defense play it wouldn't have mattered anyway.

Drew Stanton as the loveable loser Check. The kid who proclaimed that he was born to beat Michigan and it was the University of Puke etc. was once again left hanging his head in despair having finished his career 0-5 against the Wolverines.

Jehuu Caulcrick as Stanton's sidekick in stupidity Check. This kid decided he'd proclaim that Michigan's rushing defense wasn't that tough and it wouldn't be much of a challenge was held to 29 yards on 14 carries. Here's some news for you J-Who?: Michigan is still #1 in the nation in rushing defense after throttling you.

Do I even need to recap Michigan's offense? It's really the exact same thing they have done for weeks. Come out gunning in the first half with a dynamic balance of rushing and passing while opening a big lead. Then they ease up in the 2nd half and just run the ball while coasting to a victory. Mike Hart got 122 yards on 22 carries. Chad Henne was 11/17 for 130 yards and 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Mario Manningham scored on 2 long touchdowns (again).

Anybody with a pulse in Michigan spent the 2nd half of the football game watching the Tigers dismantle the Yankees.

Tigers and Yankees, Game 3 Tonight

2006-10-06T14:27:00.000-04:00

Yep, I'm just a little bit excited for this one. First playoff game in Detroit in 19 years. They just split the first pair in New York and now they get a chance to tee off against the weakest part of the Yankees roster, Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright. It's going to be electric in Comerica tonight. Detroit has always been a baseball town and the city has been starved for a winner. If I'm in charge of the PA system, I'm turning on "Welcome to the Jungle" and cranking up the volume when the teams take the field before the game. It's going to be very loud tonight when we get a pair of geezers on the mound as Randy Johnson squares off against Kenny Rogers. Johnson has a poor career record in the postseason and struggled for most of this year. Kenny Rogers has been even worse in the postseason, but he has pitched very well the last 6 weeks of the season. New York has the better lineup, Detroit the better bullpen.

Look for Detroit to stack the lineup with right handed bats tonight and I wish we had Shelton on the roster to get even one more instead of Sean Casey. I wish I could be there in person, but I'll be there in spirit.

UPDATE: WOO HOO! The Gambler was dominant tonight. He'll probably rate this right up there with his perfect game as the best game of his life. His curveball was just filthy and I've never seen the Yankees swing and miss at so many pitches. Jeremy Bonderman gets the ball tomorrow as the Tigers try to clinch the series.

What a Saturday afternoon

2006-10-06T07:03:00.000-04:00

Michigan-Michigan State at the Big House and the Tigers and Yankees in Comerica. The only bad thing is they both start at the same time. Very brief thoughts on the football game:

Drew Stanton is an idiot. In case you missed it, he mouthed off this week noting that he "hates Michigan, the University of Puke as it is known in my house". Thanks, Drew. You'd hate to have Michigan overlook your free falling team. No need to punch them in the face and get their attention.
Michigan State's defense is bad and Michigan's offense is red hot.
Michigan State's offensive line is banged up.
Drew Stanton got injured by LaMarr Woodley last time he played in Michigan Stadium and it might not be the last time Woodley injures him in Michigan Stadium.
If Drew Stanton is an idiot, what does that make John L Smith?

Predictions? I'm going with 40-21 in favor of Michigan. The Spartans have just enough big play ability on offense to score a few TDs. But their QBs are going to get knocked around all day and MSU's defense has no chance against Michigan. Mike Hart will be pushing 200 yards again and Chad Henne will have a big game.

2006 BTPR, week 5

2006-10-05T19:54:00.000-04:00

Once again, by tiers:

1) Ohio State - they are really good and they smacked Iowa around in Iowa City
2) Michigan - probably the 2nd best team in the country right now

3) Penn State - no great wins, but only 2 losses were to top 10 teams
4) Wisconsin - same as above, except only 1 loss to top 10 team
5) Iowa - is OSU just that good? Maybe

6) Purdue - great passing offense, crappy defense
7) Minnesota - they can still run the ball and Cupito is underrated
8) Michigan State - LOL

9) Illinois - is Michigan State just that bad?
10) Northwestern - thud
11) Indiana - double thud

Who Does #2 Work For?

2006-10-05T07:00:00.000-04:00

This is the first time in a long time that I can remember such a clear cut choice at #1 nationally and such a huge group of teams all with sizeable support for the #2 spot in the polls. Ohio State is #1. I can live with that. They had a great team last year and are off to a fantastic start. They've got a good coach and a great quarterback who is a Heisman favorite. What I'd like to do is break down the race for #2 as it stands right now. Who's in the discussion? Five teams by my count: Auburn, Florida, Michigan, USC, West Virginia. Others like LSU and Texas and Louisville are on the outside looking in at this point. So, in alphabetical order:

Auburn
2005 record and ranking: 9-3, #14 in polls, lost to Wisconsin in Citrus Bowl
2006 record: 5-0
Best win: 7-3 at home against #9/10 LSU
Worst performance: 24-17 nailbiter over unranked South Carolina at home
Gestalt: They've got a great D, a great running back, and a decent passing game. Signature win over LSU is hard to quantify. LSU is a very good team, but that was not a great performance and it was at home.

Florida
2005 record and ranking: 9-3, #12/16 in polls, beat Iowa in Outback Bowl
2006 record: 5-0
Best win: 21-20 win at #13/14 Tennessee
Worst performance: 26-7 against Kentucky at home
Gestalt: Very good defense and an up and down offense. Very difficult schedule coming up, so they will prove on the field where they belong. Nothing spectacular yet.

Michigan
2005 record and ranking: 7-5, unranked, lost to Nebraska in the Alamo Bowl
2006 record: 5-0
Best win: 47-21 blowout at #12 Notre Dame
Worst performance: 27-7 win at home against Vanderbilt
Gestalt: Take your pick of Ohio State or Michigan as the most impressive team in the nation thus far. Their dominance in South Bend is the best performance of any team in the nation thus far and they've had a 3 score lead midway through the 4th quarter in every game this year meaning they haven't broken a sweat.

USC
2005 record and ranking: 12-1, #2, lost to Texas in the Rose Bowl
2006 record: 4-0
Best win: 28-10 over #22 Nebraska at home
Worst performance: Toss up between 20-3 at Arizona or 28-22 at Washington State. LSU beat Arizona by 6 TDs and Auburn beat Wash State by 26.
Gestalt: No Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, or LenDale White, but there is plenty of talent to go around for Pete Carroll. Not terribly impressive thus far, but would you bet against them? Lack of experience might come back to to bite them at some point.

West Virginia
2005 record and ranking: 11-1, #5/6, beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl
2006 record: 4-0
Best win: 45-24 over Maryland at home
Worst performance: 27-10 win at East Carolina
Gestalt: They play a horrendous schedule this year and might not play a team that ends up above .500 until November. The one and only reason they are ranked this high is because of the Sugar Bowl last year.

So how do I rank it? I think it's obvious that Michigan has the best resume thus far but is handicapped by their horrible 2005 season and lower start in the polls this year. I'd put Auburn and Florida just behind because they each have a quality win. USC is on a great run, but their best win is at home against an overrated Nebraska squad that just needed OT to beat Kansas at home. West Virginia? Get back to me when you play a team with a pulse.