Sunday, May 14, 2006

Time for a little mathematical what if

The Tigers did sweep the Indians today and sit at 24-13 which is the 2nd best record in the majors just a 1/2 game back of the ChiSox. I think at the beginning of the year most people predicted the Tigs to win somewhere around 85 games give or take a few. Well, Detroit has likely played over it's head a bit so far. But what about the rest of the year?

Starting today at 24-13, if you thought the Tigs were a XX-XX team before the season then they should finish with a XX-XX record:

80-82 prediction would give a 86-76 record
85-77 prediction would give a 90-72 record
75-87 prediction would give a 82-80 record


So even if the Tigs only play like an 85 win team the rest of the year, they're still on pace for 90 wins this year. If they play like a crappy 75 win team, they're still on pace to finish over .500.

Don't underestimate the power of a quick start.

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